Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 162025
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
325 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD INCLUDE TEMPERATURES
AND POSSIBLY SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE WEST. IN THE
NEAR TERM...A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL AND IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS...PRODUCING SOME MINOR ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS ON GRASSY SURFACES. WET ROADS COULD FREEZE QUICKLY
TOWARD EARLY EVENING AND CREATE SLICK ROAD CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE...ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORT WAVES WILL PUSH INTO THE STATE
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
WEST...MAINLY THURSDAY MORNING...CHANGING OVER TO LIGHT RAIN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. AFTER
ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S...EXPECT REBOUNDING
TEMPS ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S NORTHEAST TO MID 40S
SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

THE HIGHLIGHT OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS A TRANSITION TO A MORE
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEK.

THE 12 UTC DETERMINISTIC SUITE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A
PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TO IMPACT THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY EVENING
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH ISENTROPIC
LIFT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AS RAIN...AND POSSIBLY TRANSITIONING TO
SNOW LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER...THIS WILL
HAVE TO BE MONITORED NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THEREAFTER...A
SIGNIFICANT TROUGH PROPAGATES INTO THE WESTERN CONUS TUESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...POTENTIALLY PLACING THE NORTHERN PLAINS UNDER SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. WHILE DIFFERENCES EXIST AMONGST THE GUIDANCE REGARDING
THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM AS IT PROPAGATES ONTO THE
PLAINS...INCREASING MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND INSTABILITY SUPPORTS
THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AT LEAST
ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER COULD BE POSSIBLE. MOVING INTO
THURSDAY...THE 12 UTC GFS/ECMWF CLOSE OFF A POTENT LOW INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...WHICH COULD SUPPORT A TRANSITION TO SNOW. WHILE
SIGNIFICANT QPF IS EXPECTED SOMEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
CANADIAN PRAIRIES...PREICPITATION TYPE AND PLACEMENT WILL REMAIN
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN FOR THE COMING DAYS. IN LIGHT OF MOIST
SOILS...HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS WILL ALSO NEED TO BE CONSIDERED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS
NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EXPECTING A FEW LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS AT KMOT AND POSSIBLY A FEW FLURRIES AT KBIS/KJMS.
MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AND PATCHY LIGHT FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...AYD









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