Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 100034
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
634 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 628 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

A FEW MINOR UPDATES EARLY THIS EVENING...MAINLY FOR SNOW CHANCES.
BAND OF LIGHT REFLECTIVITIES THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WAS
ADJUSTED FARTHER EAST AND BACKED OFF ON QPF THROUGH THIS EVENING
FOR THE SOUTH CENTRAL WITH MAINLY TRACE AMOUNTS. UPPER LEVEL JET
DROPPING SOUTH LATER THIS EVENING IS EXPECTED TO BRING A MORE
WIDESPREAD AREA OF SNOW ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW.

PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP TODAY. ONLY MINOR AMOUNTS
OF PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD AND SUBSTANTIAL
PRECIPITATION ARRIVING LATER TONIGHT.

TONIGHT...A MORE ROBUST 150 KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL DIVE
OUT OF CANADA. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH A PRONOUNCED 850 MB LOW AND
ENHANCED BAROCLINIC ZONE TO PROVIDE WIDESPREAD SNOW EAST OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER. MODEL AGREEMENT AND CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT
LOCATIONS ALONG A LINE FROM ROLLA TO CARRINGTON...JAMESTOWN AND
ELLENDALE WILL SEE BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES OF SNOW. FURTHER
WEST...BETWEEN THE MISSOURI RIVER AND HIGHWAY 281 BETWEEN 1 AND 3
INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE.

HOWEVER...THERE IS ISSUE THAT MAY LIMIT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND
COULD PRODUCE SLICK ROAD CONDITIONS. AS THE 850 MB LOW APPROACHES
IT WILL BEGIN ADVECTING IN WARM AIR ALOFT. THIS PUNCH OF WARM AIR
MAY BE PRONOUNCED ENOUGH TO DRY OUT THE MID-LEVELS AND/OR
SUFFICIENTLY MELT ANY ICE CRYSTALS. THIS WOULD IN TURN PRODUCE
FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FREEZING RAIN. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO
HOW FAR EAST THIS WARM/DRY AIR WILL MAKE IT...BUT CURRENT
MODEL CONSENSUS HAS IT ANYWHERE BETWEEN BISMARCK AND MEDINA. IF
THIS INDEED TURNS OUT TO BE THE CASE THEN SNOW AMOUNTS WOULD
LIKELY BE REDUCED AND ROAD CONDITIONS COULD BECOME HAZARDOUS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

WITH A PERSISTENT STATIONARY FRONT FORECAST TO REMAIN ACROSS
NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE WEEK A VERY PRONOUNCED TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT WILL RESIDE. EAST OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY
COLD WITH READINGS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. WEST OF THE
FRONT TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND 40S ARE EXPECTED.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING FAST MOVING WAVES
ACROSS THE REGION...GENERALLY BRINGING ONLY MINOR AMOUNTS OF RAIN
OR SNOW TO NORTH DAKOTA. THE NEXT SUCH WAVE IS EXPECTED TO SWING
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SCATTERED SNOW IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...ONLY
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED...GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH.

A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN APPEARS ON THE HORIZON. A TROUGH
IS FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE TO THE WEST LATER THIS
WEEKEND. THIS COULD MEAN A RETURN TO MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES FOR NORTH DAKOTA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 628 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

VFR CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. LATE TONIGHT...MVFR
TO IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW ARE POSSIBLE AT KMOT/KBIS/KJMS. IT IS
ALSO POSSIBLE THAT KMOT/KBIS COULD SEE SOME FREEZING RAIN OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO WARRANT MENTION IN THE TAF.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...TWH


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