Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 241741

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1241 PM CDT Wed May 24 2017

Issued at 1150 AM CDT Wed May 24 2017

Winds gusting over 45 mph northwest to 30 to 40 mph southwest late
this morning. Will issue a wind advisory west this afternoon
through 8 pm CDT.

UPDATE Issued at 819 AM CDT Wed May 24 2017

Will cancel the frost advisory. Also surface winds are a bit
robust across the northwest portion of the state. Will add about
3 to 5 mph wind to the forecast as the trough moves east. The
H850 winds are forecast around 30 kts so do not believe the
surface winds will rise to advisory criteria. But will be breezy
to windy this afternoon.

UPDATE Issued at 640 AM CDT Wed May 24 2017

For early morning update have added areas of fog over portions of
the James River Valley where fog has developed, including the
Jamestown area. Expect this to deteriorate within the next few
hours. Otherwise, going forecast is in good shape.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Wed May 24 2017

The main focus for today is shower and thunderstorm chances later
this afternoon/evening.

An upper level wave will slowly push across southern Canada
tonight and tomorrow. This wave will drag a cold front across the
Northern PLains this evening. Ahead of the front strong return
flow will kick in. This will bring gusty winds around 30 mph and
warmer temperatures to the region. Across western North Dakota
where compressional warming will be maximized ahead of the cold
front temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s seem likely.

There won`t be much moisture available for this system, so while
shear values will be favorable for thunderstorm development,
instability will be limited, so only isolated thunderstorms are
expected late this afternoon and early evening across far western
North Dakota.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Wed May 24 2017

By Thursday the showers will be departing to the east and
cooler temperatures into the 60s to around 70 seam reasonable.
Not getting a lot of cold advection from this shortwave trough
that initially tracks across the southern Prairie Provinces of
Canada. But then the GFS dumbbells this upper low across the
Northern Plains through the weekend keeping an extended period of
scattered showers and cool temperatures through Memorial day
weekend, especially Sunday. The ECMWF is a bit warmer and dryer
through Sunday then brings a cold front through Monday. So with
this disagreement between global models will keep the Superblend
guidance for the weekend which gives moderate chances of showers
and slightly cooler temperatures through the Memorial Day weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Wed May 24 2017

VFR ceilings and visibilities are prevailing across western and
central North Dakota early this afternoon. A few lower ceilings
were in place over KJMS due to diurnally driven bands of cloud
streets which may continue through the late afternoon hours. Gusty
southeast winds are currently spreading across the region ahead
of a strong cold front located over eastern Montana. Expect these
gusty winds to slowly start diminishing near and after sunset. As
the cold front pushes through the state, expect winds to
eventually shift to the southwest and west by Thursday morning.
Winds will begin to increase again by the late morning hours,
mainly over the western half of North Dakota. A line of showers
will accompany the cold front this evening over the west, and
spread east through the overnight hours. Due to the isolated to
scattered nature of the modeled convection, elected to keep
vicinity showers in the TAF for now.


Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening for NDZ001-



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