Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 290616

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
116 AM CDT Thu Sep 29 2016


Issued at 116 AM CDT Thu Sep 29 2016

Inherited forecast mainly on track early this morning. Patchy fog
still seems like a safe bet across central and eastern portions of
the CWA with low temperature/dewpoint spreads. Already a few
observations sites reporting reduced visibilities.

UPDATE Issued at 924 PM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016

Forecast trending well will only update current conditions.

UPDATE Issued at 601 PM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016

A region of high pressure continues to bring quiet and clear
weather across the region this Wednesday evening. Current
forecast looks good so will only update current conditions.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 251 PM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016

Clear skies for Northern Lights viewing tonight highlights the
short term forecast.

An upper level ridge across the Northern Plains will remain in
place tonight into Thursday. As a result, clear skies are
forecast for the period for potential viewing of the Northern
Lights tonight given the increased solar wind speed from a coronal
hole on the sun.

Under the upper level ridge, slightly above normal temperatures
are expected on Thursday. Given good agreement, utilized a blend
of the 12 UTC global and the rapidly updating high resolution
iterations through 17 UTC for the short term.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 251 PM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016

Increasing precipitation chances Sunday into early next week
highlight the extended forecast.

The 12 UTC global suite is in agreement on a digging upper level
trough across the western CONUS Sunday into Monday with a
upper level low potentially propagating out onto the Northern
Plains Tuesday into Wednesday. The global models have been
consistent with this pattern setting up, favoring increasing
chances for showers and thunderstorms for the period.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)

Issued at 116 AM CDT Thu Sep 29 2016

High pressure aloft and a dry air mass will allow VFR conditions to
prevail today and tonight. However, patchy fog is possible through
about 14 UTC from the Turtle Mountains into the James River valley.
Local MVFR or IFR conditions are possible with the fog and perhaps
stratus, but winds above the ground may be just strong enough to
prevent any fog from becoming very well-established or dense.





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