Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 221013
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
413 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL INCLUDE FOG AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING. THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO DEVELOPING SNOW IN THE WEST
SPREADING INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW AND
SOME BLOWING SNOW.

CURRENTLY...A SURFACE LOW WAS CENTERED OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA -
OVER WESTERN LAKE SAKAKAWEA...WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. LOW STRATUS CLOUDS BELOW 500 FEET AND FOG
WITH VISIBILITIES FROM 1/2 MILE TO 5 MILES. AT UPPER LEVELS A BROAD
TROUGH WAS IN PLACE ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE AND PLAINS STATES. WATER
VAPOR SAT LOOP INDICATES A SMALL CIRCULATION ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA AND INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...INDICATIVE OF EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE AND A MINOR UPPER LOW. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC LOOPS
INDICATE INCREASING COVERAGE IN LIGHT RETURNS FROM NORTHEASTERN
MONTANA ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL/WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. DICKINSON REPORTED "UNKNOWN PRECIPITATION" THIS PAST
HOUR...WHICH COULD BE RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING A
CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL INDUCE THE
SURFACE LOW CENTER TO DEVELOP SOUTH INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA TODAY. THUS THE MAIN ENERGY...UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION AND
LIFT...AND BEST SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE ND/SD
BORDER. SINCE THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM HAS SLOWED AND EXPECTED
PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...COMBINED
WITH THE SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE STORM SYSTEM...WE DO NOT EXPECT
QUITE AS MUCH SNOWFALL ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
INSTEAD THE BULK OF THE SNOW IS EXPECTED IN SOUTH DAKOTA AND INTO
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.

EXPECT DEVELOPING SNOW OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING...SPREADING INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATER THIS
MORNING...AND CONTINUING MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NORTH
DAKOTA TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY.

TOTAL SNOWFALL EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY: NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
SNOWFALL TOTALS SHOULD RANGE FROM 1/2 INCH IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS
TO AROUND 2 INCHES AT WILLISTON. ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 2 1/2 INCHES ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
WATFORD CITY TO HARVEY AND CARRINGTON.

NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW THAT WOULD IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL. A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY HAD BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS AREA...IN EFFECT TODAY AND
TONIGHT. WILL KEEP THIS ADVISORY GOING BECAUSE OF THE BLOWING SNOW
HAZARD REDUCING VISIBILITIES...DESPITE THE LOWER SNOW AMOUNTS
EXPECTED. WILL ALSO KEEP A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT RUNNING FOR THE
REST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TO HIGHLIGHT THE EXPECTED
SNOW FOR HOLIDAY TRAVEL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

DIMINISHING SNOW ON TUESDAY AND LIGHT SNOW CHRISTMAS DAY HIGHLIGHT
THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES
ARE IN AGREEMENT ON WRAP AROUND LIGHT SNOWFALL ENDING FROM WEST
TO EAST THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
SLOWLY FILLS AND PROPAGATES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. TRAVEL ON
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS LOOKS GOOD. HOWEVER...FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY THURSDAY THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THEIR TIMING
AND EVOLUTION OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WAVE AS IT PROPAGATES
ACROSS THE ROCKIES...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SNOW BAND IN ISENTROPIC
LIFT POSSIBLE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. WHILE UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS...SOME TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE FOR CHRISTMAS DAY
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THEREAFTER...TEMPERATURES
TREND BELOW NORMAL A AS ABROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH ENVELOPS THE CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1246 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

HAZARDS TO AVIATION TONIGHT INVOLVE LOW IFR CONDITIONS WITH
FREEZING DRIZZLE CENTRAL AND EAST AND RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW WITH A
WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WEST. WIDESPREAD IFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL STATEWIDE. SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW SOUTHWEST
WILL IMPACT KDIK WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS AND VSBYS 1 MILE IN SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW MONDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ TUESDAY FOR
NDZ017-031>033-040-041-043-044.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...JV







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