Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 220513
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1213 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY LOOP AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A COLD
FRONT PUSHING ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE
WEST. RADAR IMAGERY...REGIONAL AND LOCAL...SHOWS INCREASING AREAS
OF REFLECTIVITY`S DEVELOPING...MOST OF WHICH IS MID LEVEL MOISTURE
BEING SAMPLED AND INCREASING ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER
BOWMAN RADAR SHOWS A LINE OF SHOWERS IN FAR EASTERN MONTANA WITH
POCKETS OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE INTO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HONE IN ON THE PRIMARY
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
PRIOR TO DAYBREAK...AND THEN INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WHERE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AT TIMES ARE EXPECTED MID MORNING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CURRENT FORECAST HAS A MENTION OF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND CONCUR WITH THIS AS THEY WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED AND NON-SEVERE. CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 945 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
DURING THE PAST HOUR. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD GRADUALLY SPREAD
EAST OVER THE STATE TONIGHT IN AN AREA OF ELEVATED CAPE AHEAD OF
AN UPPER SHORTWAVE PIVOTING INTO EASTERN MONTANA. ADDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FOR
THE REST OF TONIGHT AS A RESULT. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINING WEATHER
ELEMENTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 652 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH EASTERN
MONTANA...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA
TONIGHT. ITS PARENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SHORTWAVE WILL LAG BEHIND
AND SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY FORCING MECHANISM FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...DELAYED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS UNTIL
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE EAST
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THE CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW SPOTTY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
ROBUST CAP IN PLACE AS ELEVATED MIXED LAYER OVERSPREADS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER DECIDED TO ADD A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WHERE THE SHOWALTER INDEX TRENDS NEGATIVE
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY SOUTHEAST. THIS LAYER ABOVE THE CAP COULD
RESULT IN ELEVATED CONVECTION LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

TRIED TO FIT THE POPS WITH THE BEST FORCING FOR LIFT. ENDED UP
FOCUSING ON THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL STILL BE IN THE 60S WHICH IS 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT A TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE
DRAPED ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONT SHOULD BE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS TIME.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE MOUNTAIN
WEST. OF COURSE BEING NEARLY A WEEK WAY...GUIDANCE DIFFERS GREATLY
ON PRECIP CHANCES AND PLACEMENT.

TEMPERATURE WISE...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT SHOULD BRING LITTLE MORE THAN A WIND SHIFT
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH KISN AND KDIK AS OF 06Z WEDNESDAY.
REST OF THE TERMINALS HAVE SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AN
AREA OF LOW VFR CIGS NOW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA WILL SHIFT
TOWARD KISN/KDIK BY 13Z WEDNESDAY...AND INTO KMOT BY 18Z. THERE
COULD BE INTERMITTENT MVFR CIGS AT THESE TERMINALS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH A VCSH OVER TH
AERODROMES WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE KJMS
WHERE PREDOMINANT -SHRA IS FORECAST BETWEEN 15Z AND 23Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...KS








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