Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 120526
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1126 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1126 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

Latest satellite imagery and surface observations continue to
advertise stratus from Minot to Bismarck and from Rolla south to
Ashley. This is along and east of a warm front that is propagating
from west to east, best depicted on the NAM12. As warm air
advection increases from west to east tonight, the stratus will
erode as it slides into the James River Valley. The colder temperatures
ahead of the warm front should be bottoming out as the stratus
arrives, then rise a few degrees thereafter. Current forecast
remains on track.

UPDATE Issued at 930 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

As anticipated, clouds are playing a large role in hour to hour
temperature changes tonight over central North Dakota. low
temperatures now forecast down to 10 above in the James River
Valley where clear skies will hold for a few more hours. To the
west temperatures will remain steady or even rise a few degrees in
the more cloudy Missouri River Valley.

UPDATE Issued at 623 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

While skies have cleared across the central and east the models
bring clouds/low level RH back into the region later tonight. So
have lowered cloud cover central and east this evening then
raised sky cover back up later. This will create a temperature
problem east as the cloud free areas are seeing temperatures fall
rapidly to the forecast lows. Lowered min temperatures east about
5 to 7 degrees tonight. Would not be surprised if temperatures
rebound a bit by morning as clouds move back in.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)

Issued at 218 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

No big highlight in the short term period. Mild temperatures
return for Tuesday west and central.

Currently, trailing embedded S/WV impulse within northwest flow
aloft pushing south across the western Dakotas behind the clipper
from last night. Precipitation associated with this wave all but
done over my western counties as forcing exits the region.
Gradient forcing continues to quickly decrease as weak high
pressure builds into the Northern Plains. Winds thus continue to
wind down. CAA stratus starting to break up from south central
Canada south into North Dakota.

For tonight: Warm air advection commences from west to east
tonight as a warm front slides east into the Dakotas. Mostly
cloudy conditions will trend scattered tonight west into central,
with another increase in clouds across central and eastern
portions of the state after 03-06Z as an upper level jet streak
moves south into the region and produces mid to upper level
clouds. Increased overnight lows with the WAA and expected clouds,
into the low/mid 20s.

Another clipper system approaches from the north during the day
Tuesday. Mid level S/WV will be moving into southern Saskatchewan
by 00Z Wed, with associated surface low pressure over
southwestern Manitoba and a warm front draped north to south
across the eastern Dakotas late Tues aft. This will put western
and central ND in the warm sector with daytime highs climbing into
the 30s from the Turtle Mountains south through the James River
Valley, 40s central and lower 50s southwest. Boundary layer
temperatures would support even warmer daytime highs, though lack
of good mixing via BUFKIT analysis so opted to maintain close to
the inherited forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)

Issued at 218 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

Mid level low moves southeast across eastern Montana and
southwestern ND Tuesday night, with associated surface low
pressure moving south-southeast across the Red River Valley. CAA
with this clipper on the weak side but still expecting an uptick
in winds Tuesday night into the day Wednesday. Some light QPF is
advertised by the GFS/ECMWF across the central part of the state,
though high res models mainly dry. A wintry mix will be possible
with any precipitation that does fall given thermal profiles and
road sfc temperatures. Something to keep an eye on for the next
few forecast cycles. Temperatures cool for Wednesday as a
secondary cold front moves south into region.

Barrage of clippers continues with the next wave Wednesday night,
followed by another Friday/Friday night. Much uncertainty with
these smaller scale features 4-5 days out. Safe to say each will
bring chances for precipitation, period of strong winds, and
larger than normal temperature swings with WAA & CAA.

Both the 12Z GFS & ECMWF now maintain this active northwest
pattern through the weekend. Earlier runs of these models were
advertising more of zonal flow pattern developing which at the
moment is gone.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1126 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

Mvfr cigs from KMOT to KBIS will shift east into KJMS from now
through 12z Tuesday. Vfr cigs will commence at KBIS by 09z Tuesday,
vfr cigs at KMOT by 08z, and vfr cigs at KJMS by 13z. Elsewhere,
vfr cigs will continue this Taf period. A cold front will push
from northwest to southeast after 00z Wednesday. Increasing west
to northwest winds to between 20kt and 30kt will evolve 00z-06z
Wednesday. Prior to the strong winds at the surface, there will be
a brief period of low level wind shear at KISN/KMOT/KBIS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...KS



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