Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 192329
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
629 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

SKIES HAVE CLEARED AND WINDS HAVE GREATLY DIMINISHED AS THE PEAK
HEATING PERIOD HAS PASSED AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS BECOMING
DETACHED FROM THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE. JUST ONE SMALL INSTABILITY
AREA ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA WILL BRING SOME PT CLOUDY SKIES FOR
AN HOUR OR SO THIS EVENING NEAR WILLISTON. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL
BECOME LESS THAN 10 MPH ACROSS THE REGION AND SKIES CLEAR BY 8 PM
CDT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

BREEZY DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IS GENERATING
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES NORTH. THE CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR OUT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST AND
DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE WEST. THE COMBINATION OF WEAKENING
WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RADIATE INTO
THE LOW TO MID 30S BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO TRAVERSE ACROSS SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN SUNDAY. ITS ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO PUSH THROUGH WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY MORNING...AND THROUGH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
PROG THE HIGHEST INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...THE GREATEST UPPER DYNAMICS WILL BE
DISPLACED OVER THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE FRONT. GIVEN THE
DISCONNECT BETWEEN THE UPPER FORCING AND INSTABILITY...ONLY
INDICATED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS NORTH PROXIMATE TO THE BEST UPPER
FORCING...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SOUTH ALONG THE FRONT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FURTHERMORE...WITH SHOWALTER INDICES REMAINING
WELL ABOVE ZERO SUNDAY AFTERNOON...REMOVED THE MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED...STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS TO
RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. WEST
OF HIGHWAY 83...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 60S. DRY WESTERLY
FLOW WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS
IS FORECAST TO GENERATE A VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER WEST SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

THE HIGHLIGHT OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS A POTENTIAL STRONG STORM
SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

THE 12 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO DEPICT A STRONG STORM
SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...DETAILS STILL REMAIN UNCERTAIN AS RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY
REMAINS LACKING. WHAT IS MOST CERTAIN IS A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MUCH OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH THE LEADING IMPULSES OUT OF THE
LARGER WAVE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL WAVE. UNCERTAINTY
INCREASES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE 12 UTC GFS/GEFS/GEM
CLOSE OFF A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...WHILE THE 12
UTC ECMWF BREAKS WITH ITS PREVIOUS RUNS AND IS MUCH MORE OPEN AND
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE. FOLLOWED A BIT CLOSER TO
THE GFS/GEFS/GEM FOR NOW GIVEN LITTLE SUPPORT IN PREVIOUS RUNS FOR
THE 12 UTC ECMWF SOLUTION. HOWEVER...DUE EXPECT SOME INCONSISTENCY
TO REMAIN UNTIL THE WAVE BEGINS TO BE SAMPLED BY THE WEST COAST
ROABS ON MONDAY. FOR NOW...WIDESPREAD RAIN COULD BE POSSIBLE ON
THURSDAY...POTENTIALLY TRANSITIONING TO SNOW THURSDAY EVENING AND
INTO THE NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY DUE TO
HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS ACROSS THE SOURIS BASIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NORTHEAST OF LAKE WINNIPEG IS WILL
CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEAST TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL BE REPLACED
BRIEFLY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THEN
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA ON SUNDAY
BRINGING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS TO NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AS A
COLD FRONT ENTERS THE STATE AROUND 16Z/11 AM CDT. VFR EXPECTED AT
ALL TAF SITES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP BEHIND A COLD FRONT OVER WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF WINDS 20 TO 25
MPH AND MINIMUM RH VALUES 25 TO 30 PERCENT IS FORECAST TO GENERATE
A GFDI IN A LOW-END "VERY HIGH" FIRE DANGER SUNDAY...MAINLY WEST
OF HIGHWAY 83. FIRE MANAGERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST
FORECASTS FOR ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES SUNDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...WAA
FIRE WEATHER...TM






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