Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 161826
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1226 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

SKIES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CLEAR FROM EAST TO WEST THROUGH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE WEST...THOUGH LATEST GUIDANCE IS SHOWING CLOUDS
REMAINING OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA INTO TONIGHT.
THEREFORE...HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE EVENING OVER
THIS AREA. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 900 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

SKIES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CLEAR FROM EAST TO WEST OVER CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES OVER THE CLEAR AREAS HAVE
DROPPED TO NEAR ZERO...WHILE UNDER CLOUD COVER TEMPERATURES REMAIN
IN THE UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20. EXPECT GRADUAL CLEARING WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING...THOUGH LATEST GUIDANCE KEEPS CLOUD
COVER SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING. HAVE ADJUSTED GRIDS ACCORDINGLY. UPDATES
HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 647 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE. THE 06 UTC NAM
AND 11 UTC RAP/HRRR MAINTAIN THE CLEARING ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY...SLOWLY ERODING THE STRATUS THROUGH THE
HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPERATURES. SCATTERED FLURRIES CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL MID
MORNING.

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING
THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. A 1032MB SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER LAKE WINNIPEG...NOSING INTO THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS WITH CLEARING CONDITIONS. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE
SOUTH AND EAST TODAY INTO TONIGHT BEING LOCATED IN EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AND WESTERN ONTARIO BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. ONCE THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY...THE FLOW BECOMES
PROGRESSIVE WITH ANOTHER WEAK UPPER TROUGH ALREADY APPROACHING
EASTERN MONTANA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.

FOR TODAY...LATEST FOG/STRATUS LOOP AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW
A VERY SHARP LINE BETWEEN A CLEAR AND A CLOUDY SKY. ROLLA WAS
CLEAR WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 1 ABOVE...WHILE MINOT WAS OVERCAST
WITH FLURRIES AND HAD A TEMPERATURE OF 20 DEGREES. THE EDGE OF THE
CLEARING LINE WAS LOCATED ROUGHLY FROM BOTTINEAU TO RUGBY...INTO
CARRINGTON AND SOUTH TO JAMESTOWN AND ELLENDALE. THE RAP13
925-850MB RH FIELD PUSHES THIS DRIER AIR/LOWER RH SOUTHWEST TOWARD
A MINOT/BISMARCK THIS MORNING. THERE ARE STILL POCKETS OF STRATUS
IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA WHICH WILL AT TIMES ADVECT INTO THE EAST
CENTRAL AREA TODAY...THUS WILL SEE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS HERE. THE WEST WILL REMAIN MAINLY CLOUDY UNTIL MID/LATE
AFTERNOON . FOLLOWED THE HOURLY RAP13 TEMPERATURES AND SKY GRIDS
AS IT HAD A DECENT HANDLE ON THE CURRENT CONDITIONS. SCATTERED
FLURRIES CONTINUE TO STREAM SOUTH ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE UPPER
TROUGH AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS THROUGH MID MORNING.
EXPECT DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS THEREAFTER WITH HIGHS TODAY RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 20S WEST TO THE TEENS EAST CENTRAL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

GENERALLY BENIGN WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

THE 00 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT ON SPLIT UPPER LEVEL FLOW
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN MODERATING TEMPERATURES FROM THE BRIEF COOL
DOWN ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE MID
20S TO MID 30S FOR THE WEEKEND. THEREAFTER...ENERGY COMING ONSHORE
TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS WEEKEND IS FORECAST TO PROPAGATE
INTO THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AT THE VERY END OF THE CURRENT
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR
POSSIBLE CHRISTMAS TRAVEL IMPACTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

CIGS OVER MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE FROM MVFR TO VFR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WHERE MVFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...JJS






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