Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 251741

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1241 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017

Issued at 1241 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017

Latest suite of satellite imagery shows a mid/upper level low
circulating in eastern Wyoming. Bowman radar shows weak
reflectivitys pinwheeling around the circulating and into
southwestern ND. Upper low slowly transitions east today/tonight.
Collaborating with surrounding offices and WPC on strength and
duration of large scale ascent late tonight and Wednesday,
impacting LaMoure and Dickey counties with snow. The 12z NAM is
the most aggressive with qpf, while the 12zGFS/09Z SREF/00Z ECMWF
and 00z GFS Ensembles indicate lower qpf. Initial conversations
with WPC this morning concerning the NAM initialization of the
dynamics today, that area associated with the higher qpf/snow
totals Wednesday is that it has support from the larger scale
perspective. This raises concerns for snowfall potential late
tonight through Wednesday in far southern James River Valley. Will
be focusing on this for the afternoon forecast.

Otherwise, cold/dry northeast low level flow today dominates.
Stratus/overcast conditions dominate central and southern ND with
some breaks showing up in the far north with the drier air.

UPDATE Issued at 850 AM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017

Added a slight chance of snow southwest where Bowman radar shows
some potential for the light precipitation to move into Bowman
and Adams counties. Also added some flurries south central.

UPDATE Issued at 649 AM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017

We increased forecast wind speeds through the day with this update
based on early-day observational trends, bias-corrected MOS output
and forecast soundings from the 06 UTC NAM/GFS and more recent RAP
and HRRR iterations. Those forecast soundings show northeast winds
averaging near 20 kt in the well-mixed surface layer across much
of central ND today. The rest of the forecast remains on track.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 329 AM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017

Tuesday will be another cool and cloudy day. Breezy northeast
winds will make it feel rather chilly today with wind chills in
the teens and 20s. An upper level wave will move across South
Dakota this evening. The latest short-term models indicate precipitation
associated with this wave should remain south and east...with
only far southeastern North Dakota seeing any rain/snow. Tonight
will be cold with temperatures falling into the low 20s across
western North Dakota.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 329 AM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017

Northwest flow continues through the week. This will keep us in a
cool and dry pattern as flow aloft is rather week and the jet
stream remains well south of us. Temperatures will remain well
below normal through the week with readings mainly in the 40s and
low 50s.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017

Mvfr cigs will improve to vfr at KMOT/KISN through 00z Wednesday;
otherwise rest of the terminals remain in mvfr status until 12z
Wednesday, except KJMS will fluctuates between mvfr/ifr through
the entire period. Gusty north-northeasterly winds of 15kt to
25kt expected through 00z Wednesday, but forecast to continue at
KJMS through the taf period.




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