Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 270951
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
351 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 335 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

NO MAJOR FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

CURRENTLY...UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL
CANADA...WITHIN A LONG WAVE TROUGH FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST OF
THE UNITED STATES NORTH-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
INTO CENTRAL CANADA. AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF TO
OUR SOUTH ALLOWING A WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW AND WEAK WAA INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS.

WAA CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. CLEARING ALREADY OCCURRING WEST BUT WILL SEE SKY COVER
INCREASING DURING THE DAY. WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH ISOLATED
FLURRIES WITH THE CLOUDS THROUGH 15Z THIS MORNING. BEST COVERAGE
OVER THE NORTH. ALSO OPTED TO MAINTAIN SOME PATCHY FOG ON THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE CLOUD DECK OVER MY SOUTHEAST THROUGH MID
MORNING.

WARMER FOR MANY LOCATIONS TODAY COMPARED TO FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY
NORTH CENTRAL WHICH WILL SEE HIGHS 15-20 COMPARED TO SINGLE
DIGITS/LOWER TEENS YESTERDAY. AS THE UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH AND
EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MANITOBA AND INTO ONTARIO TODAY...A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON...THEN MOVE SOUTH ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. CHANCES
FOR LIGHT SNOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE FROPA. WILL ALSO SEE ANOTHER
INCREASE IN SKY COVER AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALREADY THIS MORNING
NORTH THEN SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY.

CLEARING LATER TONIGHT OVER MY NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WILL
YIELD TEMPERATURES NEARING 15 BELOW ZERO. MORE CLOUD COVER SOUTH
SO NOT AS COLD WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TEENS.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

SNOW ON SUNDAY IN THE SOUTHWEST AND A PATTERN CHANGE TO COLDER
HIGHLIGHT THE LONG TERM.

00 UTC MODELS/ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT LIGHT SNOW WILL
MOVE INTO SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY. LIMITED QPF DUE TO
CONFINEMENT OF THE BETTER DYNAMIC SUPPORT TO MONTANA AND WYOMING
WILL KEEP ACCUMULATIONS TO AROUND AN INCH. LOW-LEVEL MODEL MOISTURE
PROFILES AND GENTLE UPSLOPE FLOW ALSO SUPPORT FLURRIES AWAY FROM THE
BETTER SNOWFALL RATES.

THEREAFTER...A NORTH AMERICAN FLOW PATTERN SHIFT TO POSITIVE PACIFIC
NORTH AMERICAN...PNA...WHERE AMPLIFIED RIDGING OVER THE WEST COAST
STATES/PROVINCES AND DEEP TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF
THE CONTINENT...WILL DIRECT A SURGE OF COLD LOW-LEVEL ARCTIC AIR
INTO NORTHERN CONUS. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH ABOVE ZERO ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...PER MODEL/ENSEMBLE/MOS CONSENSUS...AND WIND
CHILLS SHOULD EASILY DIP INTO THE -30F RANGE. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY
WILL PROBABLY NEED TO BE ISSUED IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A BRIEF WARM UP TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS FORECAST FOR NEW
YEARS EVE AND DAY THANKS TO FAIR ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT THAT A MIDDLE
LEVEL RIDGE WILL PASS BEFORE THE NEXT SURGE OF COLD AIR DUE IN NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY EVENING)

ISSUED AT 335 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

AREA OF MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
MORNING. WESTERN TERMINALS OF KISN-KDIK WILL TREND SKC/VFR BETWEEN NOW
AND 12Z AS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUDS MOVES EAST. OTHER
TERMINALS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR SATURDAY MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF
MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH FROM CANADA.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...SCHECK
AVIATION...NH








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