Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 222347

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
647 PM CDT FRI JUL 22 2016

Issued at 639 PM CDT Fri Jul 22 2016

Severe threat continues over the area as storms push northerly
into an area of even richer instability (4+ KJ/KG) over southwest
into south central North Dakota. This is causing the storms to
continue to increase in coverage. Expect this trend to continue
over the next few hours. Also, some slower moving storms have been
posing a possible flooding threat, enhanced by a moisture rich
atmosphere. Later tonight, second round of convection expected as
wave currently pushing into eastern Montana continues to work its
way towards the east.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Fri Jul 22 2016

We are anticipating a severe thunderstorm watch to be issued this
afternoon by the Storm Prediction Center. Latest mesoscale
discussion indicates favored area south of highway 2 in northwest
and north central North Dakota...southward across the South
Dakota border.

Multiple rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected
across western and central ND this afternoon and tonight...and
continuing across central North Dakota on Saturday. Very heavy rain
is also possible, and the issuance of a flash flood watch for
central ND remains valid.

This afternoon, a surface low was over Montana/northern Wyoming with
a warm front extending northeastward in an east-west fashion over
central North Dakota. Dewpoint temperatures from Lake Sakakawea and
southward were in the upper 60s to lower 70s...with upper 50s
dewpoints across northern counties.

Mesoscale analysis indicated that the best instability with surface
based CAPE values from 1500-4000+ J/Kg was in place along and south
of this warm front. However, there was enough CIN below the modest
mid-level thermal cap late this morning/early afternoon for one
thunderstorm southeast of Bismarck to break through the cap. The
storm continued to develop as it moved southeastward. Most high res
CAM models continue to show the best development beginning around
mid-afternoon...and models continue to show best area in the
southwest and south central parts of the state. This is when upper
level shortwave energy from the approaching upper level low moving
east across the Rockies reaches southwestern North Dakota. The upper
level low/trough moves eastward across North Dakota on Saturday,
providing a series of upper level impulses that will support the
several rounds of thunderstorms expected this afternoon through
tonight and into Saturday. This afternoon expecting thunderstorms to
develop...then develop into an MCS tonight continuing into Saturday
morning. Saturday afternoon the upper level trough is moving through
central North Dakota, and lingering thunderstorms would be over and
exiting the James Valley by late afternoon/early evening.

Flash flood guidance is generally around 2+ inches in 3/6 hours.
Although latest guidance for precip totals are a bit less than the
midnight shift forecast, will continue the flash flood watch.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Fri Jul 22 2016

Drier westerly flow is expected Saturday night through Monday
afternoon. The 12z model consensus suggests the upper level zonal
flow aloft next week will favor seasonable temperatures (80-90
Monday and Tuesday, and 75-85 Wednesday to Friday) with daily
chances of thunderstorms beginning Monday night through Friday.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 639 PM CDT Fri Jul 22 2016

Thunderstorms will remain possible tonight into early Saturday
morning. Some storms may be severe tonight with large hail, heavy
rain, and damaging wind gusts. Outside of the thunderstorms, VFR
conditions are expected.


Issued at 305 PM CDT Fri Jul 22 2016

WPC maintains a slight risk of flash flooding across western and
central North Dakota this afternoon through tonight. There is still
a prolonged period of precipitable water values of around 1.5
inches, and the expected MCS development with multiple rounds of
thunderstorms would warrant the flash flood watch that was issued
early this morning for central North Dakota - valid through
Saturday afternoon.


.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Flash Flood Watch from 10 PM CDT this evening through Saturday
afternoon for NDZ002>005-010>013.

Flash Flood Watch through Saturday afternoon for NDZ019>023-025-



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