Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 161144
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
644 AM CDT Sun Jul 16 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 637 AM CDT Sun Jul 16 2017

Single supercell moving through west central North Dakota
producing 40 to 50 mph wind gusts. Refreshed the POPs for this
for the morning hours as it tracks through northwest North Dakota.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sun Jul 16 2017

The main forecast concerns involve critical fire weather
conditions this afternoon and early evening. Continue to have
confidence in very warm temperatures with the GEFS plumes
temperatures around 100 west with minimum relative humidity below
20 percent. Mean winds of around 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph
should be sufficient to meet red flag criteria. Current red flag
warning looks good.

Although high temperatures will be around 100 the heat index will
remain below 100 as the afternoon relative humidity will lower
the index.

Convective allowing models (CAMs) also suggest thunderstorms will
form along the cold front as it moves into North Dakota this
afternoon and overnight. Modest CAPE and shear will support
a marginal risk for high based strong thunderstorms, primarily
gusty winds for the severe weather threat with inverted V type
soundings.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sun Jul 16 2017

Thunderstorms will continue across eastern sections of the
forecast area Monday and Monday night as the lingering frontal
zone will be the focus for convection. A marginal risk for severe
weather continues for the James River valley where very warm
temperatures once again suggest high based convection with
inverted V soundings.

Moderating temperatures Tuesday through Saturday will bring some
relief from the very warm weather pattern of late. This period
will also include several short waves that should bring
opportunities for rain, primarily Wednesday and again Friday into
Saturday. While these episodes will bring scattered thunderstorms
the chance for widespread moderate rain probably will not be very
high.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 637 AM CDT Sun Jul 16 2017

Hazards to aviation include increasing low level winds creating
some wind shear across western North Dakota today. Scattered
morning thunderstorms are expected across northwest North Dakota,
then another round of thunderstorms this afternoon and tonight
across the west and central. Otherwise VFR conditions.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ this afternoon to 9 PM
CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for NDZ017>020-031>034-040>045.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA



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