Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 300306

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
906 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

Issued at 851 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

The band of snow continues to push across central North Dakota
this evening. This snow and winds gusting around 40mph are
producing visibilities around one mile, with some locations
dipping down to 1/2 mile. The main change made for this update was
to cancel the Winter Storm Warning across far western North Dakota
and replace it with a Winter Weather Advisory. Short-term models
continue to indicate the bulk of the snow will remain east. Even
with strong winds, visibility remains above one mile. Based on
current conditions and little additional accumulation expected,
felt that a warning was overkill for these counties. Light snow
remains possible through the morning hours and visibility may dip
at times producing hazardous travel conditions, therefore elected
to keep far western North Dakota in an advisory.

UPDATE Issued at 607 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

A persistant band of snow continues to stream into central North
Dakota this evening as several upper level vorticity maxima rotate
around the stacked low to the east. This moist conveyor belt is
expected to remain intact through a large portion of the
overnight hours. This will lead to additional snow accumulations
of 2 to 6 inches across central and portions of western North
Dakota by the time snow diminishes tomorrow afternoon. The latest
short-term high-res models indicate far western North Dakota and
portions of the James River Valley may see very little if any
accumulation through the next 24 hours. Therefore, trimmed back
expectations of snowfall and wording in the warning/advisory, but
will wait to see how this band evolves over the next several hours
before making any decisions with respect to cancelling headlines.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 153 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

The unusually large and long lasting winter storm continues this
afternoon with another surge of moisture moving into North
Dakota. Quasi-steady state moderate to occasionally heavy snow
will set up across central North Dakota this afternoon and
continue this evening. Environment Canada radar networks and the
US 88D radars show a very long fetch of moisture moving around the
upper low along the warm conveyor belt from as far away as western

Additional snow accumulations of 4 to 6 inches are very likely by
Wednesday morning across a wide swath of central North Dakota.
To the the west, winter storm warning criteria may not quite be
met across the far western portions of the county warning area,
but many of these counties will see winter storm criteria across
the eastern end of the counties. For this reason do not expect to
cancel any of the warning.

Across the James river valley snow will finally start tonight.
Three to 5 inches still looks reasonable.

By Wednesday the snow and blowing snow will end from west to east.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 153 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

The main concern in the extended forecast will be the potential
for much colder temperatures early next week. Arctic air will
finally form across the eastern slopes of the Canadian Rockies
then move south into the northern plains. GEFS plumes for 2 meter
temperatures showing some potential for 10 to 15 below zero
and this not out of the question based on the relatively deep and
fresh snow cover. Used blended temperatures which show around
zero for lows across western North Dakota next Wednesday morning.
This would imply wind chills of 10 to 15 below with not too much
wind. Otherwise the extended will see highs in the 20s and lows in
the teens and generally dry until teh cold front ushering in the
arctic air arrives Monday.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 607 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

Snow AND blowing snow will continue through the night for
portions of western and central North Dakota, including KISN,
KMOT, KDIK, and KBIS. A rain/snow mix is in store for KJMS.
IFR/MVFR visibilities and ceilings are expected through the
forecast period. An enhanced area of snowfall across KMOT and KBIS is
expected through 06z tonight. Snow will end from west to east


Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ Wednesday for

Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST /11 AM MST/ Wednesday for

Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST Wednesday for NDZ025-037-



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