Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 271236
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
636 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 621 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

FRIGID TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THIS MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA TO THE EAST OF BROAD CLOUD COVER. HAVE
ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO ADDRESS FRIGID WIND CHILLS
THIS MORNING OVER THOSE AREAS. OTHERWISE...ONLY UPDATE WAS TO
INCREASE CLOUD COVER OVER THE WEST. WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES AS
THEY ARE WITH SNOW STARTING TO DEVELOP SOUTHWEST AS NOTED ON
BOWMAN ARB RADAR AND BAKER MONTANA OBBS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

CONCERNS FOR TODAY ARE THREATS OF SNOW...FREEZING RAIN...AND
RAIN...AND ON ADVISORIES TO BE ISSUED/CHANGED.

THE LATEST MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION IS
A BIT SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND ALSO THAT THE ADVANCE
OF WARMER AIR ALOFT IS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE IMPLICATIONS ARE THAT THE PRECIPITATION TYPE THIS MORNING IN THE
SOUTHWEST SHOULD BE ALL SNOW RATHER THAN FREEZING RAIN. THE
CHANGEOVER TO A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST UNTIL AROUND NOON.

THUS HAVE MADE CHANGES TO THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORIES THAT HAD BEEN
ISSUED YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. THE CHANGES ARE AS FOLLOWS:

THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY AREA SOUTH AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER
HAD BEEN CHANGED TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. REASONING: FIRST
EXPECTING SNOW...THEN A CHANGEOVER TO FREEZING RAIN.

1) THE FAR SOUTHWEST (4 COUNTIES) WILL HAVE THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IN EFFECT THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. BY EVENING THE AREA
OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO HAVE LIFTED NORTHEAST.

2) THE REST OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES WILL HAVE THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY THIS MORNING...AFTERNOON...AND EVENING.

3) THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WILL REMAIN
THE SAME: THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

SLIGHTLY LOWER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOW EXPECTED IN THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES...BUT THE CHANGEOVER OR MIX WITH FREEZING RAIN WILL WARRANT
THE CONTINUATION OF THE ADVISORY.

TOTAL SNOWFALL THROUGH TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE UP TO AN INCH IN THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL...1-2 INCHES NORTHWEST...AND 2-3 INCHES
NORTH CENTRAL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE WINTRY MIX POTENTIAL ON
FRIDAY...ENDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON SATURDAY.

WARM FRONT REMAINS OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY KEEPING THE MELTING
LAYER OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA IN AREA OF MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT.
THIS WILL KEEP FREEZING RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY
ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW SHIFTS FROM EASTERN MONTANA
EASTWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT ALLOWING A COLD FRONT
TO START WORKING ITS WAY IN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WARM LAYER ALOFT
WITH FREEZING RAIN CHANCES PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY AS COLD AIR
FLOWS IN. NOTABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED...WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS NOT FAR OFF PREVIOUS NIGHTS LOWS OVER MANY PARTS OF THE NORTH
AND WEST. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BECOME A CONCERN SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING...PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTH.

ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END SUNDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH SETTLES INTO THE REGION. A VERY COLD DAY IS EXPECTED...WITH
NORTHERN LOCATIONS HANGING AROUND THE ZERO MARK FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES...DROPPING TO NEAR 20 BELOW OVERNIGHT. DEPENDING ON THE
PATH OF THE SURFACE HIGH...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH WIND TO AGAIN WARRANT
WIND CHILL CONCERNS. WARMER...THOUGH STILL BELOW
AVERAGE...TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH DRY
CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 621 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CIGS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
WILL SPREAD EAST INTO THE KJMS AREA THIS MORNING...WITH OCNL
IFR CIGS. LIGHT SNOW WILL THEN DEVELOP IN THE WEST THIS
MORNING...MAINLY FROM 12Z-14Z AT KDIK...THEN SPREAD NORTH AND EAST
EAST AFTER 18Z. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO A WINTRY MIX OVER KDIK
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND AT KISN/KBIS AROUND 00Z THIS EVENING.
MAINLY LIGHT SNOW AT KMOT/KJMS...BUT A WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE LATE
AROUND 06Z.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT
FOR NDZ017>020-031>034-042-045.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR
NDZ001>005-009>013-021.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ040-
041-043-044.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...JV






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