Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 131134
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
634 AM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 631 AM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017

A quiet and cold morning continues across the area, with most
locations dipping into the 20s. For early morning update, only
change was to adjust cloud cover a bit to line up with current
conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017

Current surface analysis places low over northeast Manitoba, with
secondary low over western Kansas. High pressure remains over the
northern plains in the wake of the cold front that passed through
the region yesterday. Upper level analysis places low over
Manitoba, while a trough pushes through the western CONUS.
Southwest flow remains over our area.

For today, aforementioned upper trough passes over the Rockies as
a lee side low develops and gradually deepens over southeast
Montana before dropping southward over eastern Wyoming tonight.
The day will be relatively quiet, but as the trough approaches,
forcing will be on the increase overnight, primarily over
northern areas. Precipitation that does develop should start out
as rain, but a transition towards some light snow will be possible
late evening, overnight spreading into the area from the north as
cooler air works into the system.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017

On Saturday, wave continues shifting towards the east with the
primary focus for precipitation shifting towards the central
portions of the state, tapering off towards the west. Snow chances
possible early with the aforementioned cool air in the system,
but should transition towards rain chances with warming
temperatures in the morning. With this all said, accumulations,
if any, should remain very light and melt by later in the day.
Most precipitation should be off to the east by evening, with some
possibly loitering over the James River Valley.

Ridge then builds in the start the upcoming week to bring warming
temperatures and dry conditions, which should remain through mid-
week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 631 AM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017

A warm front will develop across western/central North Dakota this
afternoon, followed by a cold frontal passage northwest and into
south central ND tonight. The cold front will not push through KJMS
until Saturday afternoon. Sct/bkn mid level clouds can be expected
today, with a VCSH at KISN beginning 19z Friday. A VCSH was included
for KBIS/KMOT/KJMS after 00z Saturday.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...KS



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