Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 220646
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1246 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1246 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

SURFACE LOW WAS OVER WILLISTON/WATFORD CITY AREA WITH A TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH HAD PULLED STRATUS AND FOG WESTWARD DURING THE
EVENING. WEST OF THE TROUGH WINDS HAD BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AND
EXPECT COLD AIR TO BEGIN FILTERING IN GRADUALLY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 20S OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN...WITH MID
30S IN NORTHEASTERN MONTANA. TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE MID AND UPPER
30S OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IS SPARSE AT THIS TIME...BUT REPORTS EARLIER
THIS EVENING INDICATED PRECIPITATION TYPE AS RAIN. GLASGOW MONTANA
BEGAN REPORTING LIGHT SNOW AT 05Z OR 11 PM CST. THUS THE ONSET OF
LIGHT SNOW IS LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. HAVE ADJUSTED THIS
TIMING...SUCH THAT BY 3-4AM CST OR 2-3 AM MST LIGHT SNOW COULD BE
FALLING IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST...AROUND BEACH OR BOWMAN/HETTINGER.
REGARDING THE SPARSE COVERAGE...LATEST DOPPLER RADAR LOOPS INDICATED
THAT LIGHT RADAR RETURNS WERE BEGINNING TO INCREASE OVER
NORTHEASTERN MONTANA...ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER IN NORTH
DAKOTA...AND LIGHT RETURNS SEEN ON THE BOWMAN RADAR FROM BAKER MT TO
HETTINGER. THINKING THAT WITH TIME THIS MORNING THERE WILL BE MORE
INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS REGION AS THE ENERGY FROM THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE CONTINUES MOVING INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

THUS PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS SHOULD BE RAIN SOUTHWEST...CHANGING TO
LIGHT SNOW. NORTHWEST SHOULD SEE A MIX OF LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING
RAIN BEFORE CHANGING QUICKLY OVER TO SNOW. FARTHER EAST IN CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA AREAS OF FOG WILL PERSIST...THEN THE FREEZING RAIN
THREAT WILL LINGER UNTIL AROUND 4-5 AM CST WHEN PRECIPITATION SHOULD
BE ALL SNOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 928 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

WIDESPREAD FOG WITH VISIBILITIES BETWEEN ONE HALF AND 2 MILES COVER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. ONLY MINOT AFB SHOWING SOME
FREEZING DRIZZLE AT 9 PM CST. WILL DELAY THE FREEZING DRIZZLE
SOUTH CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL FOR THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS BUT EVENTUALLY SOME SHOULD SHOW UP. WILL KEEP MENTION OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE NORTH CENTRAL WHERE AT LEAST MINOT AFB IS SHOWING
SOME. STILL RAINING SOUTHWEST WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA
STILL IN THE MID/UPPER 30S. STILL WAITING FOR COOLER AIR TO ARRIVE
FOR THE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW WEST WHICH SHOULD HAPPEN AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 637 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

COMPLEX WINTER WEATHER PATTERN BEGINNING AS RAIN ACROSS THE WEST
THIS EVENING.LOW STRATUS AND FOG CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EAST. THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE REMAINS THERE. BASED ON
CURRENT TRENDS THE FORECAST IS OK SO FAR. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
BEGINS AT 06Z/11PM MST SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 312 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE
PLENTIFUL...RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW WEST THIS EVENING WITH
ACCUMULATIONS AND INCREASING WIND INTO MONDAY...AREAS OF FOG AND
PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE EAST...AND MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW
SOUTHEAST DEVELOPING MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

CURRENTLY...INCOMING STORM SYSTEM ON THE NOSE OF A POWERFUL 150KT
+ UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK NOW OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING AND MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN ALBERTA
INTO EASTERN MONTANA. CURRENT PRECIPITATION ORIENTATED ALONG THE
SURFACE LOW`S WARM FRONT...FROM NORTH OF GLASGOW MT SOUTHEAST
INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. AREA OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG
ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY CONTINUES TO SPREAD SLOWLY NORTH AND
WEST THANKS TO A MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE
SFC LOW.

COMPLEX FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. AS THE
HRRR...NAM...AND RAP ALL INDICATE...STRATUS AND FOG NOW OVER THE
JAMES VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND WEST AND NORTH ACROSS THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. WILL NEED
TO MONITOR VISIBILITIES IN CASE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS NEEDED FOR
THE JAMES VALLEY OR OTHER AREAS THIS EVENING. ALSO...MODELS
HINTING RATHER STRONGLY AT LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER MY EAST. WITH
DRY AIR ALOFT OPTED TO MAINTAIN A MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH
THE STRATUS AND FOG UNTIL WE BECOME SATURATED OVERNIGHT.

POPS ON TRACK WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE
FORM OF RAIN SOUTHWEST AND A MIX NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...EVENTUALLY CHANGING TO ALL SNOW BY LATE EVENING. SNOW
CONTINUES ACROSS THE WEST AND EVEN REDEVELOPS ON MONDAY AS A
DEFORMATION ZONE AND ANOTHER MID LEVEL IMPULSE IMPACT THE AREA.
WITH CAA SNOW RATIOS WILL SUPPORT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL OF 1 TO
NEAR 4 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. COMBINED WITH 15-25KTS OF WIND
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC LOW...OPTED TO HOIST A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY STARTING 06Z TONIGHT THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY.

ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY...THE STORM SYSTEM PUSHING
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT WILL BE OVER WESTERN IOWA MONDAY...WRAPPING A
TROWAL BACK NORTHWEST AND THEN SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS...INCLUDING THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. TWO TO FOUR INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SPS FOR THIS AREA
FOR NOW AND LET THE MID CREW DIGEST NEWER MODEL DATA. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH QPF AND PLACEMENTS WITH MODELS NOT 100 PERCENT IN
AGREEMENT JUST YET.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

WINTER WEATHER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...IMPACTING EARLY CHRISTMAS
TRAVEL FOR MUCH OF NORTH DAKOTA.

THE CURRENT MODEL SUITE PROVIDES GOOD AGREEMENT ON A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BOTTOMING OUT OVER THE CENTRAL NORTHERN
PLAINS...KEEPING MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF
NORTH DAKOTA. GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS ON TRACKING... THE SYSTEM IS
PROJECTED TO SLIDE SOUTH OVER NEBRASKA...THEN BEGIN TO TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD BY MONDAY NIGHT. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS
NORTHEAST...BETWEEN TWO AND THREE INCHES OF SNOW IS FORECAST FOR
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTH DAKOTA. OTHER AREAS COULD
RECEIVE UP TO AN INCH. BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE ALSO FORECAST
ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE...CREATING THE POTENTIAL FOR REDUCED
VISIBILITIES AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED.
THOUGH...ARCTIC LOW PRESSURE IS PROJECTED TO BEGIN SAGGING SOUTHWARD
FRIDAY...PRODUCING BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1246 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

HAZARDS TO AVIATION TONIGHT INVOLVE LOW IFR CONDITIONS WITH
FREEZING DRIZZLE CENTRAL AND EAST AND RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW WITH A
WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WEST. WIDESPREAD IFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL STATEWIDE. SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW SOUTHWEST
WILL IMPACT KDIK WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS AND VSBYS 1 MILE IN SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ TUESDAY FOR
NDZ017-031>033-040-041-043-044.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...JV






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