Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 260833

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
333 AM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016

Fog and drizzle with stratus clouds - regarding how long they will
persist today - will be the main concern in the short term.

Currently...the exiting upper level shortwave was over eastern
ND/western MN with lingering showers from the Turtle Mountains to
James Valley. The large stratus cloud shield associated with the
departing system extended across much of Alberta and
Saskatchewan...southward to the Dakotas/Minnesota/Iowa. The western
edge of the stratus/fog in ND extended from the Montana border in
northwestern ND to Dickinson and Hettinger. This western edge is
mainly ground-based fog...with fog forming as the stratus began
retreating Tuesday evening and radiational cooling allowed
temperatures to drop into the low-mid 30s. Drizzle was noted in the
stratus deck and will continue to mention patchy light drizzle in
central ND through daybreak. Meanwhile a surface warm front
extended from a low over southern Alberta/Saskatchewan southward
across eastern MT to western SD.

The surface warm front will move east across the region today, and a
dry westerly flow should erode the stratus cloud shield from west to
east throughout the day today. Timing of this erosion of clouds will
be key...especially for temperatures. We expect the southwest to
reach high temperatures in the mid and upper 60s. Meanwhile the
James Valley, where there were reports of 0.50 to over 2 inches of
rainfall from Tuesday...combined with stratus lingering into the
afternoon...may only see highs in the upper 40s today.

A building upper level ridge tonight will set up for more warm
advection from the southwest. Lows tonight should range from the
lower 40s southwest to the mid 30s north.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016

Warm Thursday, then windy Friday bringing cooler conditions for the
weekend highlight the long term.

Warming continues Thursday with a Pacific airmass building in behind
Wednesday`s warm front. Expecting highs Thursday from the lower/mid
60s Turtle Mountains to the James Valley to the lower 70s in the

On Friday an upper level shortwave riding eastward along the
Canadian border will sweep a cold front southeastward across the
state. Gusty northwest winds of 20 to 35 mph will usher in cooler
air. Highs Friday should be around 50 north and reach the 60s
in the south...but highs Saturday should be only in the 40s across
the state. An upper level shortwave emanating from a storm system in
California/Nevada on Friday will move northeast across the Rockies
into the northern plains states. This will bring some moisture back
into the region with chances of rain...possibly mixed with snow at
times...on Friday night and Saturday.

Another storm system moving east across the Rockies and into the
plains will bring chances of rain...possibly mixed with snow at our area Sunday night and Monday. Seasonal temperatures i
the 40s and 50s are expected Sunday through Tuesday.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1223 AM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016

LIFR and IFR ceilings will prevail across much of central and
northwest North Dakota this morning and into Wednesday afternoon. Fog
is also expected to expand in coverage across these areas through
the morning hours. For KDIK and southwest North Dakota, fog and
low stratus may develop briefly tonight with easterly upslope
winds before winds turn to the west behind an occluding front.

By daybreak KISN and KDIK expected to be VFR...then taf sites
becoming VFR from west to east through late morning and into early




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