Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 050543
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1143 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DETAILS TWO SHORTWAVES...THE FIRST IN
SOUTHEAST MONTANA WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW INTO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. THIS IS RESULTING IN AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW FROM
WILLISTON SOUTH TO BOWMAN...PER REGIONAL AND LOCAL/BOWMAN RADAR.
THE SECOND SHORTWAVE WAS SEEN IN WEST CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN. FOR
THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE AND
SURFACE LOW WILL SHIFT INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WITH THE
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE ENTERING THE NORTHWEST BY 12Z. NOT EXPECTING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE SECONDARY WAVE AS THE
BEST LIFT REMAINS NORTH OF THE BORDER INTO MANITOBA. THUS THE IDEA
OF LIGHT SNOW WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL THROUGH 12Z-15Z FRIDAY AND
EXITING THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY 18Z REMAINS ON TRACK.
UPDATED POPS TO LIKELY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS IN SOUTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 914 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE REQUIRED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT SNOW GENERALLY BELOW RADAR BEAM LEVEL ACROSS
FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BEGINNING TO BE REPORTED BY SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS IN WILLISTON AND WATFORD CITY. FORECAST BLENDED TO
OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 03 UTC.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 536 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

UPDATE TO BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 23 UTC. OTHERWISE...THE
FORECAST FOR TONIGHT REMAINS ON TRACK WITH LIGHT SNOW SPREADING
ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL THROUGH THE NIGHT AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW AGAIN TONIGHT. LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN AND CANADIAN
ROCKIES AND PRESSURE FALLS INTO THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. CLOUDS IN
THE WAKE OF LAST NIGHTS CLIPPER ARE FINALLY EXITING THE FAR
EASTERN CWA. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE OVER MOST OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA BUT INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ALREADY
ENCROACHING IN THE FAR WEST.

TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE TRACK OF THE
UPPER LEVEL WAVE AMONG THE DETERMINISTIC GLOBAL MODELS...BUT A
LITTLE LESS AGREEMENT IN THE SURFACE LOW POSITION. UTILIZED A
MODEL BLEND SOLUTION FOR RESULTANT QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS. LATEST
MESOSCALE MODEL ITERATIONS DEPICT A SIMILAR TRACK TO THE SURFACE
LOW...BASICALLY FROM WEST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTHEAST INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WITH THIS QUICK MOVING SYSTEM...EXPECT
A SWATH OF LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS...GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH...FROM
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. SLIGHTLY
LESSER AMOUNTS OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE STATE...AND
LITTLE IF ANY SNOW IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AREA. A FEW LOCALES
COULD SEE AROUND AN INCH.

THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE SOUTHEAST CWA BY EARLY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND ALREADY WE SEE WARMING TEMPERATURES OVER WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. FORECAST HIGHS ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM THE MID 2OS OVER THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS...TO THE UPPER
30S OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

THE MAIN CONCERNS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD INVOLVE THE STRONG WIND
EVENT NOW FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY AS THE MODELS
HAVE SPEEDED UP THE WINDS ARRIVAL...AND SOME BLOWING SNOW POSSIBLE
ON SUNDAY FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO THE JAMES VALLEY.

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BRING SOUTHWEST WINDS AND WARM ADVECTION TO OUR
AREA...WITH A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND MOVING INTO THE
WESTERN PLAINS. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S WEST TO UPPER TEENS
CENTRAL.

THE WARM ADVECTION/CHINOOK FLOW CONTINUES ON SATURDAY...WITH A
STRONGER PUSH OF WESTERLY WINDS. WEST WINDS INCREASING TO 10 TO 20
MPH IN THE MORNING OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL SPREAD INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 25
TO 30 MPH IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A WIND
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON.

IN ADDITION TO THE WINDS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THERE IS A CHANCE
OF LIGHT RAIN. THIS PRECIPITATION CHANCE IS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE
OF A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE ROCKIES FRIDAY NIGHT...AND EMERGING IN THE LEE OF THE
CANADIAN/US ROCKIES SATURDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE LOW OF THE
SYSTEM DEVELOPS IN NORTHERN ALBERTA SATURDAY MORNING WITH A WARM
FRONT/TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH INTO MONTANA/DAKOTAS...ASSOCIATED
WITH THE PUSH OF WARM WESTERLY WINDS OVER NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. 3-HR PRESSURE RISES OF UP TO 6 MB ARE FORECAST FOR
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE CLIPPER LOW DEEPENS AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA BY SATURDAY EVENING. THE CLIPPER MOVES
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE ND/MN/MANITOBA BORDER BY DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY.
H850 WINDS OF 50-60 KNOTS ARE FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING.

THE COLD FRONT PORTION OF THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY NIGHT. CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION INCREASES
SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH LIGHT RAIN CHANGING TO LIGHT SNOW AS THE COLD
AIR PUSHES IN. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATE SATURDAY EVENING
IN THE FAR WEST...WITH STRONGER WINDS SPREADING INTO CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AFTER MIDNIGHT ON SUNDAY MORNING.

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE ON SUNDAY...WITH LIGHT SNOW LIKELY
FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO THE JAMES VALLEY. FARTHER WEST THE
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WANE AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST IN THE LOW TO MID 30S...WITH HIGHS BARELY
REACHING INTO THE LOWER 30S FARTHER EAST. ALTHOUGH SNOW AMOUNTS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT - UP TO 1/2 INCH
IN THE WEST TO 1.5 INCHES TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO JAMES VALLEY. THE BEST
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS
OCCURS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SUNDAY FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS
TO THE JAMES RIVER BASIN...WHERE A MENTION OF AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW
IS WARRANTED.

THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A WESTERN RIDGE IS
REINFORCED...WITH A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US...KEEPING A
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR AREA NEXT WEEK. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WILL SEE A SHARP BAROCLINIC ZONE SET UP ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
WITH WARM AIR TO THE WEST AND COLD EAST. KEPT A DRY FORECAST PER THE
SUPERBLEND...THOUGH SOME UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY SUPPORTS THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

MVFR CIGS AT KISN EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY
07Z...WHILE CIGS/VSBYS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR AT KDIK WITH
LIGHT SNOW. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT KBIS/KJMS FROM 10Z FRIDAY UNTIL
14Z FRIDAY. KMOT WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...KS


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