Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 290837
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
337 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

THE 07 UTC SURFACE OBSERVATIONS PLACE THE COLD FRONT IN FAR
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. THE COLD FRONT HAS BEEN SLOW MOVING EARLY
THIS MORNING AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A SLOW PROGRESSION
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA.

LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR AND WRF HAVE HAD A DIFFICULT TIME
FORECASTING PRECIPITATION AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT. AT THIS TIME
EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT PASSES. FOR NOW LEFT THE POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDER IN THE FORECAST UP TO 12 UTC THIS MORNING THEN REMOVED
THUNDER CHANCES FROM 12 TO 18 UTC. AFTER 18 UTC THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDER ALONG THE
FRONT.

LATEST 07 UTC SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW WIND HAS WENT MOSTLY CALM
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF NORTH DAKOTA. WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FOG HAS STARTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST. AT THIS TIME DO NOT BELIEVE ANY HEADLINE FOR FOG IS
NEEDED AND HAVE OPTED WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

BEGINNING SATURDAY A WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A SURFACE
TROUGH AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
BY SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN GENERATING A
LINE OF CONVECTION WITH THE FRONT. MODEL CAPES ARE INITIALLY
AROUND 2000 SATURDAY AFTERNOON WEST. AS THE SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE
TROUGH MOVE EAST AN H850 SOUTHERLY INFLOW OF 50 KTS WILL SUPPLY
ABUNDANT MOISTURE. THE PROGRESSIVE LINE OF STORMS LIKELY WILL
PRODUCE AN INCH OF QPF ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA....WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS. CAPE AND SHEAR SUGGEST A PERIOD OF SEVERE STORMS
(LARGE HAIL/WINDS) ARE POSSIBLE WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. KEPT THE HIGH POPS ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL
SECTION SATURDAY EVENING AND TRAILED THEM DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT.
FOLLOWING THIS A PERIOD (SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) OF A RELATIVELY
COOL AND WEAKLY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. WEDNESDAY WILL BECOME A
TRANSITION DAY WITH DRY WEATHER AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IS MOVING
INTO THE NORTHWEST US WITH A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THURSDAY WILL PICK UP A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN
WITH THIS NEXT SHORTWAVE.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

LIFR CONDITIONS AT KJMS AND PERIODICALLY AT KBIS THIS MORNING DUE
TO LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE
AT SITE KISN EARLY THIS MORNING. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE THE GUSTY
WINDS AS ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE BRIEF. ELSEWHERE VFR
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE 06 TAF PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...MM







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