Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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042
FXUS63 KBIS 262025
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
325 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 221 PM CDT Thu May 26 2016

Current surface analysis places low over southeastern Manitoba,
with trough dropping back to the west/southwest. Slow moving upper
low continues to loiter over far west-central into northwest North
Dakota. Scattered showers/thunderstorms continue to develop in
strong cyclonic flow around upper low in vicinity aforementioned
surface trough.

For the remainder of this afternoon into tonight, showers/storms
will continue to develop around aforementioned upper low. Many
reports of small hail have come which seem reasonable given the
cooler temperatures aloft in the vicinity of the surface low
combined with modest instability. With that said, with minimal
deep layer shear available expect the severe threat to remain low
and if one did become strong would expect it to be short lived.
Coverage should gradually dissipate this evening with the loss of
daytime heating.

On Friday, upper low gradually lifts towards the northeast
bringing another round of shower and thunderstorm chances,
particularly over the northern and eastern locations in areas of
greatest cyclonic flow.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 221 PM CDT Thu May 26 2016

Active southwesterly flow will continue over the Northern Plains
through the first part of next week, bringing daily chances for
showers and thunderstorms along with near to slightly above
average temperatures. Models are in agreement on sliding a broad
upper low over the area towards the middle of next week, which
would bring greater chances for precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Thu May 26 2016

IFR conditions in stratus at KISN should improve to VFR early to mid
afternoon. MVFR to VFR at KMOT early this afternoon. Otherwise,
scattered thunderstorms will develop once again across western and
central North Dakota with daytime heating. scattered MVFR stratus
decks are possible late tonight across the area...especially at KISN
and KMOT.


&&

.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...JV



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