Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 290800

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
300 AM CDT Mon May 29 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Mon May 29 2017

Northerly flow aloft continues today, as an upper low maintains
its position over southern Ontario. Weak shortwaves continue to
pinwheel around the center of circulation, moving into north central
North Dakota from Manitoba. Latest regional radar/Canadian radar
shows another area of light showers west of Brandon, Manitoba
diving south towards Bottineau County. Expect isolated to
scattered rain showers favoring the Turtle Mountains south into
the James River Valley today. Much less shower activity west of
this area. Northwest winds 20 to 30 mph will be common across
western/central ND today. Showers will likely mix down higher
momentum air for brief/higher gusts than mentioned above. Overall
expect mostly sunny conditions west, with a partly to mostly
cloudy sky central. Highs will be cooler today with mid/upper 50s
in the Turtle Mountains, while low to mid 60s will occur elsewhere.

For tonight, patchy frost expected in the locally colder southwest
portion, like Hettinger, as lows drop into the mid 30s. Should be
brief with minimal areal coverage, so no highlights as of now.
The dayshift can look at this once again later this afternoon.
Overnight lows overall will range the upper 30s from western into
most of central ND, with lower 40s James River Valley where enough
cloudiness remains in association with the Ontario upper low.
Clear conditions west tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Mon May 29 2017

The Ontario upper low slowly shifts east Tuesday. Expecting dry
conditions west and central with clouds gradually decreasing
through the afternoon in the James River Valley. Plenty of
sunshine elsewhere with a northwest wind dominating. Highs will be
in the 60s. A northern Rockies upper ridge begins to approach
western North Dakota Wednesday, then slides into central ND
Thursday evening. Warm air advection commences Wednesday and
continues into Thursday. H85 temps at Bismarck rise from +6C
Tuesday afternoon, to +12C Wednesday afternoon, then +20C
Thursday. This trend supports highs in the mid 70s Wednesday, then
lower 80s Thursday. As the upper ridge shifts east Thursday night,
chances for showers and thunderstorms return in the west. The
GFS/ECMWF in good agreement with a mid level shortwave and
associated frontal system, spreading showers and thunderstorm
chances into central ND Friday afternoon into Friday night. Cooler
into the weekend with a chance of showers Saturday. The GFS and
ECMWF depart on a solution for Sunday as the EC is dry, while the
GFS is hinting at some shower activity mainly central ND. Highs in
the upper 60s to lower 70s both days.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Mon May 29 2017

Low vfr/mvfr cigs covering most of eastern Saskatchewan and
Manitoba, continue to advance south into north central and through
the James River Valley early this morning. KMOT should remain in
mvfr status until 13z Monday, and KJMS through 17z. KBIS will be
on the western fringes for mvfr cigs, but for now have opted to
maintain vfr with cigs at 3500feet agl. Scattered showers will be
favored at KJMS Monday, whereas isolated showers will extend back
into KMOT/KBIS. Another round of gusty northwest winds of between
20kt and 30kt can be anticipated Monday afternoon.




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