001
FXUS63 KBIS 021751
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1251 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low chances (25 percent) for strong to severe thunderstorms
  tonight through Thursday afternoon in the west and northwest.
  Isolated strong to severe storms are possible over much of the
  west and central Thursday.

- Medium chances (60 percent) chances for showers and
  thunderstorms Thursday night through Friday night. A few
  thunderstorms could be strong to severe with locally heavy
  rainfall. Then low chances for showers and non-severe
  thunderstorms through the rest of the Holiday weekend.

- Very warm and humid today and Thursday, then a cooling trend
  Friday through the rest of the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

The weather remains quiet therefore no updates are needed at
this time.

UPDATE
Issued at 929 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

Quiet weather continues across the region as temperatures
continue to warm in the lower to mid 70s this morning. High
temperatures are still forecast to warm in the upper 80s to
lower 90s this afternoon. No updates are needed at this time.

UPDATE
Issued at 645 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

A quiet morning to start a mostly quiet day. Loaded in the
latest observations this morning and blended them to the going
forecast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 310 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

High pressure continues to mostly dominate the northern portion
of the state, while a low pressure producing thunderstorms is
in South Dakota. A small surface trough off the low is extending
into the James River Valley in North Dakota, where several
small thunderstorms have been thus far. These will end soon as
the trough moves south and east. Aloft a ridge with very warm
and moist air is moving in today, but a surface low and trough
will produce storms in Montana and possibly western North Dakota
today. These may be strong to severe but CAPE is less than 1000
J/kg so the chances are low. The west is in a level 1 risk from
SPC today.

These storms may carry over to Thursday, which will be the
warmest and most humid day of the week. A warm front will aid
in Thursday being the warmest day. The east will be breezy with
that warm front passage, with gust around 30 mph. We are still
in a level 1 risk for Thursday, however CAPE could be very high,
over 2000 J/kg, but deep shear is lacking some. There will also
be a cap from a very warm thermal ridge at 850mb. Models still
vary on the amount CAPE and the location and timing, probably
why SPC has a level 1 risk. Severe hazards would be ping pong
sized hail and 60 mph winds. Low level helicity friday night is
very high, but uncertain if it will line up timing-wise with
the storms (if they form) and the front. Friday locally heavy
rain is possible with all the moisture in the air still. The
high temperatures Friday will be a little cooler in the west and
central, but the east will be in the upper 90s as the ridge
pushes east. For the rest of the holiday weekend highs will be
in the 80s with daily low chances of storms as multiple waves
and low pressures move in.

Next week looks more dry except for a Canadian Low from near
the Pacific Ocean could take aim at the state. This would
produce storms Monday night and Tuesday. Otherwise quiet weather
with a high pressure moving in on the backside of that low,
with highs in the 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

VFR conditions will continue across the region today into
tomorrow. There is a low chance for thunderstorms late tonight
across the west, but the probability remains to low for a prob
30 group. If confidence increases precipitation will be added
into the TAFs. Winds will remain out of the southeast today with
breezy winds returning across the region tonight and wind gusts
around 20 kts by the late morning hours tomorrow.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Johnson
DISCUSSION...Smith
AVIATION...Johnson