000
FXUS63 KBIS 080609
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1209 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2014

LATEST SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW OVERCAST CONDITIONS
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AS A WARM FRONT IN EASTERN
MONTANA SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST. LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW/925MB-850MB PER
NAM/RAP/HRRR SHOWS A SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY DIRECTION. RH FIELD
SATURATED IN THIS LAYER AND CONFIRMED WITH OBSERVATIONS AND CLOUD
HEIGHTS. TREND OVERNIGHT IS FOR THE OVERCAST CONDITIONS TO SHIFT
SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT. LOCAL/REGIONAL
RADAR SHOWING A COUPLE BANDS OF FLURRIES DEVELOPING...OVER HARVEY
AND CARRINGTON AT THE MOMENT. ANY AREA OVERNIGHT IS PRONE TO SOME
FLURRY ACTIVITY AND HAVE EXPANDED/ADDED THIS INTO THE GRIDS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. ALSO CONTINUED THE TREND FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST TO INCREASE CLOUDS/RAISE TEMPERATURES AS CLOUDY
CONDITIONS PERSIST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 954 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2014

MID-LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
ARE INHIBITING TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING MUCH THIS EVENING.
FURTHERMORE...WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE DIVES
INTO NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING
CLOUDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
FALLING MUCH MORE TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES
UPWARDS BASED ON THE WARMEST GUIDANCE...WHICH APPEARS TO BE IN
LINE WITH THE CURRENT OBS/TRENDS. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINING
FORECAST ELEMENTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE
OUT SHORTLY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 650 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2014

HIGH PRESSURE ENTERING NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA HAS ERODED THE
LOW CLOUD COVER OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. AS A
RESULT...REMOVED ISOLATED FLURRIES FROM EARLY EVENING FORECAST
ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER BASIN.

THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND A WARM FRONT DRAPED
ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA COULD GENERATE SCATTERED FLURRIES WEST THIS
EVENING. THE CURRENT FORECAST CONTAINS THIS POSSIBILITY SO WILL
LEAVE IT ALONE FOR THIS UPDATE. OTHERWISE...ADJUSTED THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT OBS/TRENDS. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS
HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 202 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS TEMPERATURES.

IN THE NEAR TERM...HAVE MAINTAINED FLURRIES IN THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY AND THE FAR WEST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...AND A LARGER AREA
OF FLURRIES THIS EVENING WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE STATE OVERNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND
FEWER CLOUDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE COLDEST TEMPS...ZERO TO 5
BELOW...NORTH AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE RIVER...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LIKELY HOLD UP IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS...STEADY TO SLOWLY RISING DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS AS LOWER CLOUDS INCREASE AS WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY...PROVIDING
FAVORABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW FOR A SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP. EXPECT
AFTERNOON READINGS MAINLY IN THE 40S OVER MAINLY SNOW FREE AREAS
OF THE SOUTH AND WEST...WHILE TO THE NORTHEAST...TEMPS IN THE 25
TO 35 RANGE WILL BE COMMON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 202 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2014

A BROAD RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA WILL BRING RELATIVELY MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT AND USED A GENERAL MODEL
BLEND FOR DETAILS.

LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 20S WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS
REMAINING AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH AFTER DAYTIME HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE
30S AND 40S. SUNDAY SHOULD BE THE MILDEST DAY OF THE PERIOD...WITH
HIGHS WELL INTO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND 40S CENTRAL.
THIS WILL ACCELERATE THE SNOW MELT ACROSS THE AREA.

BY MONDAY A WEAK SHORTWAVE WORKS ITS WAY THROUGH THE RIDGE AND THIS
WILL BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE STATE. ONLY SPOTTY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY IS EXPECTED HOWEVER.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY THE RIDGE REBUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WITH ANOTHER DRY WARM UP THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2014

A WARM FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS WESTERN AND INTO CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY. WIDESPREAD LOW VFR/MVFR CIGS CAN BE
EXPECTED UNTIL THEN...WITH CIGS LIFTING FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER
12Z SATURDAY. KJMS WILL LIKELY HOLD ONTO SOME MVFR CIGS THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ACROSS THE
REMAINING TERMINALS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...KS