Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 260245

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
945 PM CDT Thu May 25 2017

Issued at 940 PM CDT Thu May 25 2017

Latest analysis showed the surface front mostly east of our CWA
with the southern portion draped over LaMoure and Dickey counties.
Between the surface layer decoupling and frontal passage
placement...was able to trend PoPs down for the evening. Otherwise
ongoing forecast continues to stay on track.

UPDATE Issued at 703 PM CDT Thu May 25 2017

The 00 UTC surface analysis showed a pressure trough or weak cool
front along a Rolla-Medina-Ashley line. A shearing vorticity lobe
is mainly lagging that boundary so it mainly represents a shift to
west winds, with diurnally-driven cumulus and isolated showers to
its west over west and north central ND. Both explicit convection
forecasts from the RAP/HRRR and their forecast soundings support
an end to any low-grade shower chance and a dwindling of most of
the cumulus by 03 UTC as the surface layer cools and the steep-
lapse-rate-driven low-level instability thus wanes. This is all
well-handled with the going forecast. The only somewhat notable
adjustment made with this update was to increase winds slightly
Friday using a bias-corrected consensus of MOS guidance, since it
has recently verified well with similarly well-mixed atmopsheres.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 223 PM CDT Thu May 25 2017

Surface low pressure and upper level low will progress east
tonight across the Prairie Provinces of Canada and the Northern
Plains. Latest CAM models spread scattered showers across
northern North Dakota late this afternoon then decreases the
coverage after the convective heating is done this evening.

Tonight and Friday will then be largely dry with the region on
the southern side of the surface low. Overnight lows tonight will
be in the 40s, with a few upper 30s southwest although do not
expect frost. Highs on Friday will be in the 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 223 PM CDT Thu May 25 2017

The extended forecast will be dominated by an H500 low dumbelling
around the Hudson bay region producing broad cyclonic flow aloft
with the North Plains in the northwest flow. This should keep
temperatures generally a bit cool with limited moisture. The best
chances for showers will be Saturday and Sunday but no decent
amounts of rain yet in the forecast. So generally cool and dry for
early next week with some moderation by Wednesday and Thursday.
There may even be a touch of frost Tuesday morning southwest with
the center of high pressure moving across the region.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 940 PM CDT Thu May 25 2017

VFR ceilings will mainly prevail tonight. However, low VFR and
MVFR ceilings are forecast to impact northwest and north central
ND late tonight and Friday, impacting KISN and potentially KMOT.
VFR ceilings are forecast to prevail southwest and south central
on Friday. Northwest wind gusts to 25 kt are also expected Friday.




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