Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 231107

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
607 AM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016

Issued at 607 AM CDT Sat Jul 23 2016

Convection is slowly intensifying across central ND as of 11 UTC.
HRRR and HRRR-experimental simulations have generally suggested an
uptick in intensity to the thunderstorm activity through 15 UTC,
and their updraft helicity signatures have at times signaled some
risk of organized, severe storms. However, there`s been little in
the way of run-to-run continuity in those simulations, which in
turn lowers our confidence in the specifics of storm evolution
through the morning. Suffice to say that the MUCAPE-shear setting
is favorable for a few severe storms, along with heavy rainfall.

All we did with this update was refresh hourly fields through the
late afternoon using a consensus of recent short-range guidance.
We will leave the flash flood watch in tact with this cycle, but
parts of it may be cancelled with the next update.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 250 AM CDT Sat Jul 23 2016

Main highlight today is the ongoing showers and thunderstorms across
portions of western and central North Dakota. Tied to this is a
flood watch for central ND which remains in effect through early

The latest water vapor imagery shows the upper level low circulating
over southeast Alberta with an associated cold front now into
eastern Montana. Much drier air behind the front with dewpoints in
the 40s. This front will be into western ND around 12z Saturday,
then shifting into central ND by 18z. Still expect periodic
showers and thunderstorms ahead of the cold front. Some storms
will contain very heavy downpours. The drier air in Montana will
spill into western ND this afternoon.

Severe thunderstorms possible across the James River Valley today
as noted by SPC day one outlook. With the cold front not pushing
through until 21z-00z, the greatest cape axis and shear will
reside here for possible severe thunderstorms.

Farther west, expect drier but windy conditions with increasing
sunshine. Tranquil weather tonight with a clear sky expected. Lows
will mainly be in the 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 250 AM CDT Sat Jul 23 2016

Shortwave ridging temporarily dominates Sunday and most of Monday
resulting in dry and warmer weather. Monday afternoon, the threat
for showers and thunderstorms returns in southwest ND then expands
into central ND Monday night. Tuesday through Friday expect near
daily chances for showers and thunderstorms as a unsettled west to
northwest flow takes control. The GFS and ECMWF in good agreement
with precipitation chances exiting from west to east Friday,
followed by a dry Saturday. Highs for the week will begin warm
with 80s to lower 90s, followed by a gradual cooling trend
Wednesday through Friday. During this time highs will range from
the 70s north to around 80 south.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 607 AM CDT Sat Jul 23 2016

A cold front will move into the western terminals of KISN/KDIK
between 12z-15z Saturday, then into the central terminals of
KMOT/KBIS. KJMS will have the front push through around 20z-21z.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms can be expected until the front
passes through. Gusty west-northwest winds of 20kt to 30kt behind
the front. Vfr cigs/vsbys expected outside of any thunderstorms
activity, while brief periods of mvfr/ifr expected with the stronger


.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Flash Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ this afternoon for



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