Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 250517

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1217 AM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016

Issued at 1216 AM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016

Little change for the rest of the overnight hours. Middle and high
clouds continue to move east across the state with an east to
southeast wind at 5 to 15 mph. Overnight lows from the mid 30s to
mid 40s are still expected. Will continue to monitor the development
of lower and middle clouds with the interaction of the low level jet
and the upper level shortwave approaching our area later this
Tuesday morning.

UPDATE Issued at 928 PM CDT Mon Oct 24 2016

The forecast for tonight continues to remain on track and was
blended to observed trends through 02 UTC.

UPDATE Issued at 651 PM CDT Mon Oct 24 2016

Little change other than to blend to observed trends through 23
UTC. A relatively mild overnight is expected with lows in the
upper 30s and lower 40s with continued southeasterly flow beneath
mid to upper level cloud cover ahead of low pressure across
central Montana into eastern Wyoming.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 204 PM CDT Mon Oct 24 2016

In the short term an h500 shortwave ridge over the north central
will flatten as a shortwave moves from teh northwest CONUS through
the northern plains on Tuesday. There appears to be sufficient
moisture available to support a likely chance for rain across the
James river valley on Tuesday. Also the Ensemble Situational Table
has places the GEFS mean QPF above 90th percentile across the James
river valley. This is consistent with the last several forecast

We did add a period of drizzle and fog across southwest North
Dakota after coordinating with Rapid City. This will be around
sunrise through noon Tuesday in moist low level upslope flow.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 204 PM CDT Mon Oct 24 2016

The main feature in the extended period will be the exiting
shortwave Tuesday night. The rain will end by Wednesday morning
after which the H500 ridge returns across the northern plains
bringing dry weather Wednesday into Thursday. Another ridge
running h500 shortwave trough will bring a cold front through the
region Friday and Saturday for a cooldown from the 60s on
Thursday to the 40s by Saturday. This will also bring gusty
northwest winds at least 20 to 30 mph Friday afternoon. Current
guidance keeps the majority of precipitation north in Canada with
this system. Return flow around surface high pressure will bring
slightly moderating temperatures back into the 50s Sunday to 40s
and 50s Monday.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1216 AM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016

VFR conditions early this morning will transition to MVFR
around/after daybreak in stratus across much of western and central
North Dakota. There is some uncertainty regarding whether the
stratus will reach as far west as KISN or KDIK. For now kept VFR at
KISN and have some MVFR at KDIK. In central ND ceilings will
continue to lower into the afternoon central, with IFR conditions
possible in rain.




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