Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 140512
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1212 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS UPDATE. EARLY
MORNING 11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS STRATUS MOVING
SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE 14.00Z NAM SUGGESTS
THE CLOUDS MAY LINGER A BIT LONGER TODAY (SUNDAY) IN THE NORTHEAST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...SO STARTED THAT TREND IN THIS
UPDATE. THE FROST ADVISORY STILL LOOKS GOOD SO LEFT IT IN PLACE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 951 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES REQUIRED WITH THIS UPDATE. DECIDED TO NOT
EXPAND THE FROST ADVISORY AS THE LOWEST DEW POINTS IN THE MID 30S
AS OF 0230 UTC RESIDE WITHIN THE CURRENT ADVISORY...WITH WINDS
EXPECTED TO BECOME CALM AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS PROPAGATES INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. ELSEWHERE OUTSIDE OF THE
ADVISORY...RELATIVELY GREATER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...STRONGER WINDS
AND GREATER CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES WARM ENOUGH TO
PREVENT WIDESPREAD FROST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 652 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

NO CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS TIME IN REGARDS TO THE FROST ADVISORY
FOR TONIGHT...WHICH IS IN LINE WITH THE 18 UTC NAM/GFS/MAV. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOUD TRENDS THROUGH EVENING SHOULD A SMALL
EXPANSION OF THE ADVISORY BE NECESSARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL GENERATE WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING. GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE HRRR IN AREA AND TIMING
OF THE SHOWERS. SHOWERS WILL END BEFORE MIDNIGHT. SKIES WILL CLEAR
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S WEST. ISSUED A
FROST ADVISORY ACROSS THE WEST...GENERALLY WEST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER AND WEST OF MINOT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER THE
REGION SUNDAY AND ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCH FROST IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL REMAIN LARGELY DRY THROUGH THURSDAY AS A
LARGE UPPER LOW ACROSS EASTERN CANADA SLOWLY MOVES EAST. AS THIS
HAPPENS BROAD RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW A SLOW WARMING TREND THROUGH THE MIDDLE TO
AND OF NEXT WEEK. BY NEXT WEEKEND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
BRINGING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT.

FOR TEMPERATURES...SUNDAY NIGHT COULD SEE SOME SCATTERED FROST
BEFORE THE WARM UP BEGINS. OTHER THAN THAT...MORNING LOWS WILL B IN
THE 40S TO MIDDLE 50S WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S MONDAY AND THE 70S TO
AROUND 80 TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AT KMOT EARLY THIS SUNDAY MORNING AS
THEY PIVOT IN BEHIND A DEPARTING AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE.
WILL KEEP THE OTHER TERMINAL LOCATIONS VFR...THOUGH KJMS WILL HAVE
TO BE MONITORED SINCE IT APPEARS THE MVFR STRATUS MAY APPROACH
THAT AREA LATER TODAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING FOR NDZ001-
002-009-010-017>021-031>034-040>045.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CK
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...CK





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