Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 271137
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
637 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

RADAR AND SURFACE REPORTS SHOW PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. HAZEN AND GLEN ULLEN SHOW UP (UNKNOWN PRECIP) WHICH
USUALLY IS FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS SO
WILL KEEP CURRENT FORECAST GOING. WEB CAMS SHOW SNOW AT VARIOUS
CENTRAL REGION SITES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 435 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND
RELATED PRECIPITATION.

EARLY THIS MORNING THE WARM FRONT WAS JUST ENTERING FAR WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S WILL LIKELY INCREASE
FROM THIS POINT ON AS WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT. FURTHER EAST...IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...A BAND OF SNOW HAS
DEVELOPED. RADAR WAS DEPICTING SNOW FROM SOUTHERN CANADA DOWN
THROUGH NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. A RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WAS
LIMITING PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THIS MORNING DUE TO EVAPORATION. AS
THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES EASTWARD AND PRECIPITATION
CONTINUES...SATURATION WILL OCCUR.

THE LATEST RUNS OF SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE (HRRR/WRF/RAP)
INDICATE MOST PRECIPITATION WILL FALL ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY LATER THIS MORNING. LATEST GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS WARMER
AIR ALOFT COULD BRIEFLY CHANGE SNOW OVER TO A MIX OF SLEET OR
FREEZING RAIN ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SNOW BAND. WHEN
ITS ALL SAID AND DONE GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A STRONG H500 RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. TO THE WEST OF THIS A STRONG H300 120KT JET IS
BRINGING FAST FLOW OFF THE PACIFIC INTO THE NORTHWEST US. THE
RIDGE WILL BRING A ROUND OF VERY MILD WEATHER TO THE REGION
SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A STRONG PUSH OF PACIFIC AIR AND
A PROGRESSIVE FLOW THAT WILL KEEP MILD TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT
TUESDAY. COOLER BUT NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL EVENTUALLY
RETURN WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

BEGINNING SATURDAY...BENEATH THE WARM RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
A SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS WILL BRING AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT SATURDAY EVENING. WARM FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL RESULT IN VERY MILD AIR...WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER
70S SOUTHWEST...AND 50S AND 60S ELSEWHERE. SATURDAY EVENING THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WEST. NAM CAPE VALUES OF 300-700 SHOULD
SUPPORT SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT. ALSO NAM IS A BIT SLOWER THAN GFS KEEPING THE FRONT AND
CAPE AROUND FOR THE EVENING HOURS. FOLLOWED THE NAM TREND.

SATURDAY NIGHT MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN KEEPING 40 TO 55 KT
H850 POST COLD FRONTAL FLOW. EXPECT SOME ADVISORY WINDS WITH THE
H850 FLOW. THE NAM DEVELOPS AN ADIABATIC LAYER FROM 3500 FEET TO
THE SURFACE AT MINOT/BISMARCK/JAMESTOWN...WITH THE BOTTOM OF THE
MIXING LAYER 30 TO 40 KTS. SO ADVISORY APPEARS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NOW.

GENERALLY GOOD MIXING WITH NORTHERLY FLOW OF PACIFIC ORIGIN SHOULD
KEEP TEMPS MILD SUNDAY...50S TO LOWER 60S. MILD AND DRY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS A PROGRESSIVE FLOW BRINGS A BROAD AND DRY RIDGE OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE WELL INTO THE
60S BY TUESDAY. THEN A RETURN TO COOLER WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

A WARM FRONT OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AT 12Z FRIDAY WILL MOVE
EAST THROUGH THE DAY. A BAND OF SNOW WITH MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE
GREATEST IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT THE KBIS/KMOT/KJMS TERMINALS. A
NARROW BAND OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MAY ACCOMPANY THE SNOW...BUT
THIS SHOULD LAST JUST A FEW HOURS AND WILL NOT ADD TO TAFS AT THIS
TIME DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...AJ





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