Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 262043

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
343 PM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016

At 3 pm CDT, a cold front extended from surface low pressure in
eastern Saskatchewan, through northwest North Dakota. A warm
front extended across central North Dakota. Low clouds and fog
that formed along and east of the warm front earlier Wednesday
have been slowly eroding east at 5 to 10 mph through the day.

This pattern will continue this evening with the low clouds
retreating east across east central North Dakota with the warm
front. Meanwhile the cold front across the northwest will move
through the region after midnight. The HRRR model runs show
shallow cool northwest flow behind the cold front that will
likely support stratus and some possible fog back into the north.
Finally some fog is also possible south central where diurnal
cooling in the moist boundary layer will set up a fog scenario.

On Thursday with a complete airmass exchange in the wake of the
cold front expect partly to mostly sunny skies that will allow
good mixing. As a result mild temperatures are forecast well into
the low to mid 70s southwest to the 60s central.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016

A generally progressive flow will continue through the extended
with several shortwave troughs flattening the broad h500 ridge
across the central and northern plains. This will bring several
chances for rain with a cooling trend from this weekend into next
week. The best chances for precipitation will be Saturday, and
again sunday night and monday. The flow aloft remains progressive
and the latest ECMWf, which earlier exhibited a closed low over
the northern plains Monday, now looks closer to the more open wave
and progressive GFS early next week. This may reduce the chances
for widespread rainfall on Monday.

The remainder of the forecast, Tuesday and Wednesday, looks dry
with seasonable temperatures.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1208 PM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016

A combination of lifr/ifr cigs/vsbys at KMOT/KBIS/KJMS will improve
to vfr by 19z Wednesday at KMOT/KBIS. KJMS cigs look to slowly
improve to mvfr and remain there through 00z Thursday. An area of
ifr cigs/vsbys stretching from Swift Current to Moose Jaw and
Weyburn behind a subtle cold front in southern Saskatchewan, will
shift southeast into KMOT by 03z Thursday and continue through 14z
Thursday. It appears that this area of stratus will also move into
KJMS between 09z-16z Thursday. Elsewhere, vfr cigs/vsbys will
continue at KISN/KDIK.




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