Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 191756
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1256 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS UPDATE. THE SECONDARY
COLD FRONT IS JUST ENTERING NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AS OF 18 UTC.
RELATIVELY ELEVATED DEW POINTS IN THE MID 50S BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR DIURNAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG AND NORTH OF US HIGHWAY 2. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 855 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

AS OF 1330 UTC...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR
CAVALIER IN NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH SELFRIDGE IN THE SOUTH
CENTRAL. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE ALONG THIS FRONT WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOWER 60S. THIS FRONT WILL EXIT INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY BY
MID DAY. THEREAFTER...DRIER AIR AND WELL MIXED CONDITIONS
OVERTAKE MUCH OF THE AREA BEHIND THIS FRONT. A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN THIS MORNING
WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE US HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR THIS
AFTERNOON...AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND ANOTHER AREA STARTING TO DEVELOP
OVER NORTH-CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS FALLS WELL IN LINE WITH
LATEST HRRR OUTPUT. MORNING UPDATE WILL ADDRESS THESE AREAS AND
REMOVE POPS OVER THE FAR WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH WESTERN/CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE
PRIMARILY FOCUSED ALONG THE FRONT AND PARALLEL/ON THE SOUTH SIDE
OF AN H300 JET. TO THE NORTH ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE ACROSS
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AT
H500. FOLLOWED THE HRRR AND NAM FOR POP GUIDANCE THIS MORNING.
BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL REMAIN ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA
BORDER...MAINLY SOUTH CENTRAL THIS AM. PRECIP ACROSS THE SOUTH
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS MORNING AS SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
FRONT AND H300 JET TAKES HOLD. THEN THE EXIT REGION OF AN UPSTREAM
H300 JET WILL POSITION ITSELF TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE
A LITTLE E BREEZY WEST AFTER THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO SATURDAY PRIMARILY OVER
NORTHERN INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS AREA REMAINS UNDER
CYCLONIC FLOW AND A POTENT SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. GUSTY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGHOUT THE AREA AS THE WAVE DIVES
THROUGH AND STRONGER WINDS MIX DOWN. WINDS WILL TAPER BY EVENING
WITH PRECIP ENDING AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES. QUIET
WEATHER EXPECTED TO START THE WEEK AS RIDGE AXIS WORKS EAST. BY
TUESDAY...A COMPACT UPPER LOW WORKS THROUGH THE RIDGE AND APPROACHES
THE REGION...SLOWLY WORKING OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID-WEEK. MODELS
STILL STRUGGLING SOME ON THE PLACEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM THOUGH AT THIS
TIME IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE PRECIP SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE
AREA SO WILL KEEP POPS ON THE LOW SIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THE FIRST OF TWO COLD FRONTS HAS ENTERED INTO THE RED RIVER
VALLEY...WITH A SECOND...WEAKER FRONT ENTERING THE
NORTHWEST...MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE EARLY EVENING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE
FRONT...POTENTIALLY IMPACTING KMOT AND KISN. WESTERLY WIND GUSTS
OF 25-30 KTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNSET.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY...WITH STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 35
KTS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...AYD





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