Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 271757
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1257 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE EAST TODAY. MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES NORTHWEST WITH CU DEVELOPING SOUTH AND EAST. SHORT RANGE
MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING SOME LIGHT RETURNS INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL
THIS AFTERNOON. ADDED SOME VERY SMALL POPS...WHICH WILL KEEP THE
MENTION OF SHOWERS OUT OF THE WORDED FORECAST. LATEST 12 UTC NAM
AND 15 UTC RAP SHOW ONLY A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE AROUND 3-5K
FEET. MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO SKY COVER AND TEMPERATURES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 950 AM CDT WED AUG 27
2014

LATEST SATELLITE SHOWS QUITE A BIT OF FOG REMAINING OVER SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...LOOKS LIKE IT IS
DISSIPATING QUICKLY THUS WILL LIKELY DROP THE ADVISORY AFTER
TAKING A LOOK AT THE 10 AM OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT
ISSUES TO THE GOING FORECAST. WILL UPDATE TEXT PRODUCTS WILL BE
SENT WITH THE EXPIRATION/CANCELLATION OF THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

REFINED THE FOG AREAS TO REFLECT FOG OVER MOST OF THE WEST AND
CENTRAL THIS MORNING. LEFT THE ADVISORY AREA IN PLACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 431 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

FOR THE NEAR TERM/EARLY THIS MORNING...THE CURRENT FOG/STRATUS
IMAGERY LOOP IN COMBINATION WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWS DENSE
FOG EXPANDING OVER MOST OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. BASED ON CURRENT
VISIBILITY TRENDS AND LATEST HRRR VISIBILITY FORECAST...HAVE
ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR MOST OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

OTHERWISE...A CLEAR SKY DOMINATES WEST AND NORTH WITH THE LATEST
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING SUBSIDENCE BEHIND A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE NOW INTO MINNESOTA. SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES WITH THE
SOUTHERN BRANCH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT BASIN INTO SOUTH DAKOTA.
AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH WAS SEEN OVER WESTERN NEVADA EARLY THIS MORNING.

EXPECTING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO
THE 70S...AND LOWER 80S IN THE FAR WEST. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE...WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS...ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE SOUTHERN
BRANCH MAKES A RETURN INTO SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED GREAT BASIN LOW/TROUGH SHIFTS EAST...A
SURFACE LOW WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA LATER
TODAY INTO TONIGHT. LATEST TRENDS INDICATE THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL REACH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BETWEEN 06Z AND
12Z THURSDAY. AFTER COLLABORATING WITH ABERDEEN AND GRAND
FORKS...HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION FOR SHOWERS AND WILL
LET SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS LOOK AT THE LATEST DATA TO FINE TUNE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 431 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

DURING THIS PERIOD THERE WILL BE SEVERAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES THAT
WILL BRING SOME ACTIVE WEATHER TO THE REGION OVER THE LABOR DAY
WEEKEND. FIRST...THE REMNANTS OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK SOUTH
OF THE STATE THURSDAY. WHILE THIS FEATURE WILL IMPACT THE AREAS
SOUTH OF THE STATE WITH SEVERAL LARGE MCS TYPE CONVECTIVE
SYSTEMS...THERE WILL BE SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE PULLED INTO THE
STATE...MAINLY ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY MORNING. BUT
THERE WILL LIKELY BE MORE CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. AFTER THIS A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHWEST
SUPPORTED BY A RATHER WEAK LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AHEAD OF A MORE
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE STILL LINGERING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST US FRIDAY.
OVERALL...HAVE DOWN PLAYED THE POPS THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...WAITING INSTEAD FOR THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE DUE IN
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL SEE MORE
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WITH STRONGER WARM/COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES.
SO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND SHOULD BE A BIT SOGGY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS ON SUNDAY. COOL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SHOULD
MAINTAIN SLIGHT THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

SKIES INITIALLY CLEAR AT 17 UTC...BUT CU IS FILLING IN QUICKLY
ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND EAST. KDIK...KISN AND KMOT SHOULD BE
VFR THIS AFTERNOON. KBIS-KJMS MAINLY VFR BUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE BEFORE CU FIELD LIFTS ABOVE 3K FEET. THEN
LOW VFR CEILING LATE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SYSTEM BRUSHES THE
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND ADDED A VCSH AT KJMS AND KEPT LOW VFR
CEILINGS AT KBIS AND KJMS. LEFT KDIK-KISN-KMOT VFR FOR NOW WITH A
MENTION OF VCFG AROUND 10-14 UTC THURSDAY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR
FOR HITTING FOG HARDER WITH LATER SHIFTS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...TWH





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