Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 170258

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
958 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

Issued at 945 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

Scattered showers continue to dissipate as they track across
central ND late this evening. Updated to remove pops most areas
through much of the night. Did keep a small chance in the far west
late this evening into the early morning hours with some activity
near Wolf Point possibly making it across the border. Then began
increasing pops late tonight across the west central and southwest
as upper level jet energy moves into this area, increasing
synoptic scale forcing. Then blended to the higher pops during the
day Saturday between 12-15z. Updated text products will be sent

UPDATE Issued at 634 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

Isolated showers and a few rumbles of thunder continue to track
southeast from eastern Montana into western ND. Farther east more
organized convection exists from the Turtle Mountains east into
far northeast ND and south into the northern James River Valley.
Most of the thunderstorm activity is confined to the far northern
tier counties of northeast ND in an area of higher CAPE and low
level shear. Updated pops based on latest radar trends and a blend
of mesoscale simulated reflectivity. Kept a broad brush of slight
chance pops west and central into the evening and higher pops
north and east for another hour or so before trending lower as the
activity moves east.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 236 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

Increasing areal coverage for rain showers and thunderstorms,
especially during the day Saturday, along with a wind advisory far
southwest ND Saturday are the highlights in the short term period.

The latest water vapor imagery shows a fast westerly upper flow with
embedded shortwaves traversing across western and central ND.
Just upstream, the leading edge of a 90kt-120kt jet was stretched
out from eastern Montana west to the Washington coast. As this jet
meanders east, the left exit region slides through southeast
Montana and northern South Dakota later tonight through Saturday
morning. Large scale ascent increases per NAM/GFS Q-Vector Divergence
Field, resulting in numerous rain showers and scattered thunderstorms
initiating by Saturday afternoon. Low level convergence will also
be enhanced as a cold front slides from southern Saskatchewan/Manitoba
tonight, into central ND Saturday. A stronger mid level shortwave
will ride atop the surface front Saturday. Instability on the
order of 500-1000 J/kg with weak shear will result in sub-severe
thunderstorms, with more pulse type thunderstorms expected especially
in the afternoon. Gusty west to northwest winds 30 to 45 mph across
far southwest ND has prompted the issuance of a wind advisory
from late Saturday morning through the afternoon. Expect a much
cooler day with highs in the 60s north to lower 70s far south.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 236 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

Showers will end in the west Saturday night, but linger in central
ND Sunday, with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in
the afternoon. Thereafter, the upper air pattern exhibits a
fluctuating northwest to zonal flow through the long term period.
Although a brief warmup into the lower and middle 80s is expected
over southern ND Tuesday and Wednesday, the majority of western
and central ND will continue to see highs in the 70s through the
duration. With an overall low amplitude upper air pattern and
meager low level moisture/dewpoint advection expected through the
week, no significant severe weather is anticipated at this time.
Timing of shortwaves and precipitation chances remain a challenge
this far out, but currently, it appears some opportunity exists
for showers and maybe a thunderstorm in far north central ND into
the Turtle Mountains Monday afternoon, and again Tuesday night.
Higher uncertainty for the rest of the week at this time.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 945 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

Upper level jet energy and a slow moving area of low pressure
from northwest into south central ND will keep a threat of showers
and thunderstorms over the area beginning late tonight in the west
and spreading across the forecast area on Saturday. Showers and
thunderstorms will increase during the day Saturday with scattered
to numerous showers and thunderstorms expected. For now we kept
SHRA over the TAF sites during much of the day with a VCTS in the
morning through mid afternoon across the north and through the
afternoon across the south. Areas of MVFR ceilings can not be
ruled out across the north Saturday afternoon and have included
this at KMOT for now. Strong northwest winds will develop at KDIK
during the afternoon Saturday.


Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM MDT Saturday for NDZ040-041-043-



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