000
FXUS63 KBIS 102339
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
639 PM CDT THU APR 10 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT THU APR 10 2014

AREA WSR-88DS SHOW LIGHT RETURNS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. AN EARLY LOOK AT THE 00Z KBIS SOUNDING SHOWS DRY
CONDITIONS BELOW H7...SO THINK ANY PRECIPITATION WHICH FALLS
SHOULD BE ISOLATED AND VERY LIGHT. THIS IS COVERED WELL WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST. INCREASED CLOUDS IN THE GRIDS
WITH LATE AFTERNOON / EARLY EVENING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING AN
ABUNDANCE OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT THU APR 10 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA NOTED ON
AREA RADARS BUT DOUBT LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION IS REACHING THE
GROUND. COULD SEE A SPRINKLE HERE AND THERE BUT WILL NOT INTRODUCE
ANY LATE AFTERNOON PRECIPITATION AS LOWER LEVELS REMAIN VERY DRY.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TONIGHT. AGAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT WITH BEST MOISTURE ALONG OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN BORDERS.

ANOTHER MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH DROPS INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY.
MODELS HAVE PUSHED BACK THE TIMING FROM PREVIOUS RUNS...THUS KEPT
THE MORNING DRY AND BROUGHT A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE WEST
BY THE AFTERNOON. BETTER CHANCES ARRIVE IN THE BEGINNING OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)

ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT THU APR 10 2014

A QUASI-ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
WILL TRANSITION TO A CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SAT NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.

PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN WILL BE ONGOING/DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE STATE FRIDAY EVENING AS AN EMBEDDED MID LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES
FROM NORTHERN MONTANA AND AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PUSHES
EAST ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER AREA. WHILE MY NORTH LOOKS TO RECEIVE
AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF WATER...MOST OF THE MOISTURE LOOKS TO
REMAIN ACROSS FAR SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND INTO FAR NORTHEASTERN ND
GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE LOW. THIS MAY POSSIBLY CHANGE YET. WILL SEE A
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW LATER FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SAT MORNING FAR NORTH AS
COLDER AIR STARTS TO PUSH SOUTH FROM CANADA. AT THIS TIME THE THREAT
FOR ANY FREEZING RAIN IS MINIMAL AT BEST. RAIN OR SNOW CONTINUES
SATURDAY NORTH AND EAST BEFORE ENDING BY SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY.
WHILE THE WWD HAS 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW GRAZING THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN
AREA...TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO REMAIN WARM ENOUGH THROUGH MUCH OF
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SAT MORNING...PERHAPS A FEW HOURS OF BELOW
32F...WHERE I ONLY EXPECT MAYBE AN INCH. MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE
DURATION OF THE SNOW DURING SAT MORNING/AFTERNOON WHEN THE
TEMPERATURE PROFILE WOULD SUPPORT MAINLY SNOW.

VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL S/WV ORIGINATING IN NORTHERN CANADA DROPS
SOUTHWARD OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH A LEADING S/WV MID LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY. SFC FORCING
WEAK BUT MAY STILL SEE A RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER WITH THE TROUGH
PASSAGE. MUCH COLDER AIR ARRIVES WITH THIS FEATURE...WITH HIGHS
SUNDAY ON THE CHILLY SIDE...MID 30S-LOW 40S.

COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO NEXT WEEK WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WILL MAINTAIN THE
ALLBLEND POPS WITH BOTH THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF SHOWING AN UPPER JET
STREAK MIGRATING ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS GENERATING A PERIOD
OR TWO OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT THU APR 10 2014

VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS PASSING ACROSS THE AERODROMES. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF
SPRINKLE / SHOWER AT ANY OF THE AERODROMES TONIGHT...BUT OMITTED
THE MENTION SINCE THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND
INCONSEQUENTIAL.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CK
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...CK