Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 171736
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1236 PM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

Again, little change for the remainder of the day outside of
observed trends through 17 UTC. These trends continue to favor
the top edge of forecast temperature guidance. A few readings in
the lower 80s are possible south central this afternoon.

UPDATE Issued at 945 AM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

Little change other than for observed trends through 14 UTC. Will
continue to evaluate potential wind headlines for tonight into
Wednesday, in addition to the fire weather threat for Wednesday.

UPDATE
Issued at 641 AM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

Hourly weather elements were blended to latest observations for
this update. Otherwise no changes.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 422 AM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

Forecast highlights today and tonight - a very warm day ahead
with high temperatures 15 to 25 degrees above average for this
time of year. Near critical fire weather conditions continue for
southwest North Dakota this afternoon. A potent cold front will
sweep from northwest to southeast tonight, prompting wind concerns
for northern North Dakota, followed by more fire weather concerns
Wednesday. Please see the fire weather discussion below for further
details.

Sunny, with breezy conditions evolving this afternoon with
southwest winds 15 to 25 mph. Afternoon highs will range from 80F
in south central ND (includes Bismarck), to mid and upper 70s
elsewhere. In the far north, highs will be around 70F.

A dry, but very strong cold front in terms of an abrupt wind
increase and a temperature change, will plow through northwest
North Dakota near midnight, and quickly sweep through central ND
overnight. West to northwest winds will increase, with the
strongest winds along and north of Highway 2 tonight. GFS Bufkit
soundings near Sherwood would favor a brief period of high wind
warning criteria being met, while the NAM is not quite as strong.
3hr pressure rises of 4mb to 5mb push through western and northern
ND tonight with steep low level lapse rates. A solid wind
advisory looks in order tonight in the north, and will let the
dayshift have another look with the latest data.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 327 AM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

Wednesday will feature strong winds from sunrise through late
afternoon and early evening before diminishing. Sustained winds
of 20 to 35 mph will encompass all of western and central North
Dakota, with wind gusts mostly between 35 and 45 mph. Wind
advisory headlines will likely be needed for northern ND and into
the James River Valley. Much cooler Wednesday with highs in the
mid 50s north to lower 60s south.

Thursday and Friday will feature another significant warmup,
similar to Tuesday. No record highs anticipated, but high
temperatures both days will reach well into the 70s along with
a few lower 80s. Southerly winds of 10 to 15 mph can be expected
both days. Another strong cold front will push through from west
to east Friday night. The upper trough follows quickly with a
period of strong synoptic scale ascent across western/central ND.
This results in a high chance for rainshowers late Friday night
through Saturday morning. Breezy and much cooler Saturday with
highs in the 50s. Another system quickly follows for Sunday and
Monday with another surge of cooler air and chances for rainshowers.
Highs Sunday and Monday will be in the 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

VFR conditions are forecast for the 18 UTC TAF cycle. Southwest
winds with gusts of 20-25 kts are forecast across western and
central North Dakota this afternoon. A strong cold front will
enter western North Dakota tonight, and move through central North
Dakota by early Wednesday morning. Strong northwest winds behind
the front with gusts in excess of 35-40 kts are possible,
especially across northern North Dakota and into the James River
Valley. Low level wind shear is also possible across much of
western and central North Dakota tonight into Wednesday morning.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 422 AM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

For today, near critical fire weather conditions are forecast
in southwest North Dakota. Minimum relative humidities of between
13 and 17 percent will combine with marginal/sustained winds near
20 mph for a few hours this afternoon. However with fuels having
enough of a green component, rapid spread is not anticipated and
thus no fire weather headline is warranted at this time.

For Wednesday afternoon, sustained westerly winds 20 to 35 mph,
combined with minimum relative humidities of between 20 and 25
percent are forecast to coincide across most of central North
Dakota, with the Turtle Mountains and the James River Valley
experiencing the strongest winds. However, as mentioned above, the
latest fuel status, both from FMOs/Fire Management Officers, and
observational equipment, reflect fuels that have not fully cured
enough to sufficiently produce/sustain a rapid rate of spread
needed for critical fire weather conditions. Will let the dayshift
evaluate this again (if needed), with any additional Fire
Management Officers.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PA
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...PA
FIRE WEATHER...KS


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