Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 230925
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
425 AM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)

Issued at 425 AM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

Forecast highlights in the short term period will be increasing
chances for rain this morning spreading east and north, with a
brief window for freezing rain central early.

Currently, upper level ridge axis east of the Dakotas with
southwesterly flow aloft increasing into the region. Lead embedded
S/WV impulse ejecting out of a potent upper level trough over the
Desert Southwest lifting northeast across Wyoming towards the
Northern Plains early this morning. Favorable upper level jet
dynamics as well with both left exit and right entrance region
upper level divergence in play. Resultant precipitation ahead of
the mid level wave just entering southwest ND as of this writing.
Cluster of lightning strikes just to our south over Perkins
County SD, though high res models suggest instability to support
thunderstorms remaining to our south. We opted to keep thunder
out of the forecast (to avoid over-forecasting convection) though
there is a possibility for an isolated storm or two this morning
as models do show some weak MUCAPE over my far south. Future
updates may be needed depending on the coverage of any potential
thunder activity.

Main challenge this morning is whether or not we will see
freezing precipitation. Surface temperatures and road surface
temperatures do suggest a possibility. Latest HRRR/RAP/NAM Bufkit
soundings all agree on the potential for at least a brief window
(1-2 hours) for freezing rain over portions of south central ND
before both air and road temps increase, with a few hundreths of
ice accumulation forecast by high res guidance between now and 8AM
CDT, which is roughly the same time frame the METRo Roadcast
model also indicates the potential for ice. We decided to add
this back into the HWO and also will highlight in the weather
story and other products.

Chance for rain continues in the afternoon, though forcing will
be on the decrease with the main push already moving east-
northeast by 18-20Z. Lingering clouds over my central and east
tonight, with mostly clear conditions west.


.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)

Issued at 425 AM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

Quiet and mild Fri & Sat as split flow aloft keeps the storm
tracks north and south of North Dakota. Quasi-active flow returns
late this weekend and into next week, though no impactful weather
is foreseen and temperatures will remain seasonal.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)

Issued at 1246 AM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

Low pressure approaching from the west will bring lower ceilings
and rain to some locations. Near freezing temperatures around the
12Z to 15Z time period could result in some light freezing rain
in central ND, but confidence remains limited in timing and
extent, as a relatively small area between KBIS and KJMS would be
affected. Otherwise, VFR conditions expected with exception of
KJMS where MVFR cigs are expected by 21Z.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JNS



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