Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 291127
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
627 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. SKIES
HAVE CLEARED SOME...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND HAVE
LOWERED SKY COVER HERE THIS MORNING. POPULATED LATEST SENSIBLE
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS AND BLENDED TEMPERATURES INTO OUR CURRENT
MID-MORNING FORECAST TEMPERATURES. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

RATHER UNEVENTFUL SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT
ISSUE BEING MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER ISSUES DUE TO LOW AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES ACROSS THE NORTH.

THE HIGH OVER LOW BLOCKING PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD MEANING NO
SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER.

CURRENTLY...SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IS SITUATED
OVER SOUTHERN CANADA BRINGING COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE
FORECAST AREA. WE WOULD PROBABLY BE QUITE A BIT COOLER IF THE MID
LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING OVER THE AREA FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS WERE
A LITTLE LESS ROBUST. CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE HOLDING PRETTY
STEADY IN THE 30S BUT SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE RANGING FROM THE TEENS
TO LOWER 20S OVER THE NORTH AND EAST. WE MAY STILL DROP INTO THE
20S ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CWA...BUT THE FAR SOUTHWEST WITH
DEWPOINTS STEADY IN THE MID 30S WILL LIKELY NOT DROP AS LOW AS
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.

FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...UTILIZED A PERSISTENCE FORECAST...BUT
ALLOWED FOR SOME WARMING AS 85H TEMPERATURES DO WARM A LITTLE AND
OUR MID LEVEL MOISTURE GETS WRUNG OUT WITH THE BUILDING UPPER HIGH
TO OUR NORTH. ONE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FROM THE DEFAULT SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE WAS TO LOWER DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE NORTH. OUR
EXPERIMENTAL HRRR WAS NOT AVAILABLE THIS MORNING BUT THE
OPERATIONAL HRRR LOOKED REASONABLE WITH 15-20 DEGREE DEWPOINTS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN
MINIMUM HUMIDITIES OF 15 TO 20 PERCENT ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
TIER COUNTIES AND 20 TO 25 PERCENT RH FOR THE NEXT TIER. WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG AND UTILIZING SOME OF
THE HIGHER GUIDANCE WINDS WE ARE STILL NOT MORE THAN 10 TO 15 MPH
SUSTAINED TODAY. THUS ANY FIRE WEATHER ISSUES SHOULD BE MINIMAL.
WILL PASS THIS ALONG TO THE NEXT SHIFT TO MONITOR BUT DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS.

ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT WITH MORE CLEARING SHOULD RESULT IN ANOTHER
COOL NIGHT WITH LOW IN THE 30S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE LONG TERM PERIOD. AGAIN UTILIZED
PERSISTENCE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH OUR BLOCKING PATTERN AND
GENERALLY RAISED TEMPERATURES JUST A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. THE EXCEPTION WAS THE FAR SOUTHWEST...WHICH SHOULD
BEGIN TO RISE A LITTLE QUICKER AS WE LOSE ANY REMAINING SNOW.

AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK...THE GFS/ECMWF BOTH ADVERTISE A WESTERN
U.S. RIDGE WITH TROUGHING OFF THE PACIFIC COAST AND OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. WE WILL BE RIGHT ON THE TRANSITION OF THE
RIDGE/TROUGH REGIME AND AFTER A MILD BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK WE
COULD SEE A LITTLE SETBACK IN TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
EASTERN CWA DUE TO A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A CLIPPER
DROPPING INTO THE DEVELOPING EAST COAST TROUGH. WE ARE TALKING
ONLY A FEW DEGREES HERE AND THE FRONT WOULD BE DRY. REALLY THE
ONLY HINT OF ANY PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE WEEK IS WITH A LEADING
WAVE DROPPING DOWN THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE ON MONDAY. THE ECMWF
SHOWS THIS WAVE DROPPING FARTHER WEST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AND
COULD RESULT IN A SHOWER OR TWO. THE GFS TAKES IT MUCH FARTHER
EAST AND IS DRY ACROSS THE CWA. RIGHT NOW A MODEL BLEND SOLUTION
DOES NOT CREATE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR A MENTION OF SHOWERS. THEN LATE
IN THE WORK WEEK THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AND MODELS
WANT TO BRING A LITTLE QPF INTO THE WESTERN CWA FRIDAY NIGHT.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THIS DOES NOT COME TO FRUITION GIVEN THE
DRY ATMOSPHERE AND RIDGING STILL HOLDING ON OVER EASTERN MONTANA
LATE IN THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

VFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCT/BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG
WITH NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS AROUND 10KT.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...KS


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