000
FXUS63 KBIS 210610
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
110 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 110 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

FORECAST REMAINS MAINLY ON TRACK. MAIN UPDATE WAS TO INCREASE SKY
COVER NORTH AS AN AREA OF LOW STRATUS PUSHES SOUTH FROM CANADA.
THE LATEST RAP AND 00Z NAM ARE CAPTURING THESE CLOUDS VERY WELL SO
LEANED HEAVILY ON THEIR FUTURE DEPICTION. STRATUS LOOKS TO LINGER
THROUGH MID MORNING THEN SHOULD BURN OFF BY 17-18Z.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 940 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

LOCAL RADARS SHOW THE NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COLD FRONT ARE JUST ABOUT OUT OF THE REGION. ANOTHER ONE OR TWO
HOURS OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN JAMS RIVER
VALLEY IS ABOUT IT. UPPER LOW CIRCULATION IN CANADA WITH H850
COLD ADVECTION SHOULD BRING IN SOME CLOUDS NORTH CENTRAL LATE
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWERED THE MIN TEMPS 2 TO 4
DEGREES CENTRAL AND EAST AS LOW RH/DRY AIR AND RAPIDLY
DIMINISHING WINDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL A BIT MORE TONIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

AS OF 620 PM CDT...THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVE TO A RUGBY TO HARVEY TO
LINTON LINE AND MOVING RAPIDLY EAST. ONLY SOME LIGHT SHOWERS NORTH
BUT THE SHOWERS ARE ENHANCING THE WINDS A BIT NORTH CENTRAL DO TO
EVAPORATIVE COOLING. WEST OF THE FRONT A WELL MIXED LAYER HAS
RESULTED IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH. THESE ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET. ADJUSTED WINDS AND
CLOUDS TO FOLLOW THE FRONT WITH THIS FORECAST

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

A COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE 70S OVER
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND INTO THE UPPER 60S OVER NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. NO PRECIPITATION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE BOUNDARY
JUST YET. HOWEVER...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
PRIMARILY OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS THE MAIN UPPER SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE
INTERNATIONAL BOUNDARY. THE COMBINATION OF WARM TEMPERATURES AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE A "VERY HIGH" FIRE
DANGER OVER MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE OVERNIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
AROUND 30 KNOTS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT...WITH
LOWS FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.

A DRY DAY IS FORECAST FOR MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. HOWEVER...COOLER CANADIAN AIR IS EXPECTED TO ROTATE SOUTH
BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER SHORTWAVE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOUT A CATEGORY
ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

THE HIGHLIGHTS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST ARE A POTENTIAL STORM
SYSTEM FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

THE 12 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN
OCCLUDING WARM FRONT SUPPORTED BY A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY IS FORECAST TO BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE
NORTH THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AS A DRY SLOT BEGINS TO
OVERTAKE THE WEST. THE 12 UTC SUITE...COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY...SUGGESTS THIS DRY SLOT WILL OVERTAKE MUCH OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...RESULTING
IN SIGNIFICANTLY LESS QPF. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE ONCE
AGAIN DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THURSDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO PROPAGATE SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. THEREAFTER...WELL BELOW
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 40S ARE FORECAST FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A
COLD...STRONG SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 110 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA IS FORECAST TO
MOVE SOUTH INTO NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING SOME
STRATO-CUMULUS CLOUDS INTO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL BETWEEN
NOW AND 12Z. SCT-BKN CLOUDS 1-3 THOUSAND FOOT AGL EXPECTED FOR
THE MORNING HOURS KISN-KMOT...POSSIBLY KJMS. OTHERWISE VFR AT ALL
TAF SITES.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...NH/WAA