Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 230538
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1238 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

ONLY A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT IN MINIMUM TEMPERATURES MADE FOR THIS
UPDATE. HETTINGER WAS ALREADY REPORTING 33 DEGREES...A TAD BELOW THE
FORECAST MINIMUM. EXPECTING A LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND TONIGHT SO WAS
NOT CONFIDENT ON LOWERING TEMPERATURES TOO MUCH IN THE WEST.
OTHERWISE THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW OVER
CENTRAL MANITOBA WAS OVER THE MINOT/TURTLE MOUNTAIN/NORTHERN JAMES
VALLEY. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING EAST...AND EXPECT
CLOUDS TO MOVE EASTWARD AND BE OUT OF THE AREA IN 2-3 HOURS. CURRENT
FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 935 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

NO MAJOR UPDATES WERE REQUIRED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. ONLY
ADJUSTED SKY COVER BASED ON CURRENT OBS/TRENDS. OTHERWISE...THE
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 555 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED OUT OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...REMOVED SHOWERS FROM THE LATE AFTERNOON
FORECAST ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. OTHERWISE...ONLY MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS. THE UPDATED
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

THE MAIN FEATURE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EXITING THE REGION VIA SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA. NORTHWEST FLOW
BRINGING IN SOME STRATO CU ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL. THIS WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AND WILL EXIT THE REGION BY MID EVENING. ACROSS THE
EAST AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY EXITING THE REGION AND WILL
CARRY THE SHOWERS EAST THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO BE
EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY 7 PM CDT. CLEARING SKIES AND
DRYER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. EXPECT SUNNY SKIES
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. GOOD VIEWING
OPPORTUNITIES FOR THE PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

A RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TOMORROW. THIS WILL CONTINUE
THE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE TREND ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH ALL THE
DYNAMICS NORTH AND VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH IT SHOULD
REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE STATE. EARLY NEXT WEEK THE RIDGE WILL PUSH
OFF TO THE EAST AS THE MODELS POINT TO A TROUGH ENTERING THE AREA.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT THE MODELS
DIFFER GREATLY AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWN NEAR
NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

VFR CIGS OVER KMOT HAS MOVED EAST...BUT SOME LINGERING SCATTERED
CLOUDS NEAR KJMS MAY AFFECT KJMS FOR THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. OTHERWISE
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THROUGH 00Z. MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO ENTER WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA AROUND 00Z AND MOVE/EXPAND EAST ACROSS THE STATE
THURSDAY EVENING. WINDS SHOULD BE MAINLY SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...JV






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