000
FXUS63 KBIS 040607
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1207 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SNOW AND SKY FORECAST WERE MADE FOR THIS
UPDATE. SNOW SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS A FAST
MOVING VORT MAX DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. THESE SNOW
SHOWERS ARE FAST MOVING AND BRIEF IN NATURE...THEREFORE LITTLE TO
NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE SNOW...SO VISIBILITIES WILL BE BRIEFLY REDUCED.
SKIES ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO CLEAR ACROSS NORTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES ARE RESPONDING QUICKLY WITH READINGS ALREADY
WELL BELOW ZERO.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 906 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE WILLISTON AREA WITH
VISIBILITIES IN THE SNOW DOWN TO BELOW 2 MILES. WITH THIS
INFORMATION WILL TREND AND REFINE THE POPS TO LIKELY WITH
THIS SNOW SHOWER BAND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. AFTER
MIDNIGHT EXPECT THIS TO BECOME MORE DIFFUSE AND TRENDED DOWN TO
FLURRIES. ALSO EXPECT A BRIEF GUST TO 25 MPH BEHIND THIS FEATURE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 606 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

THIS UPDATE WILL END THE WIND ADVISORY AND WILL BEGIN THE WIND
CHILL ADVISORIES THAT WILL EVENTUALLY COVER THE REGION BY MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. ADDED SOME EVENING FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST.
ALSO FOLLOWING SOME SNOW IN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE
TRENDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN. THIS APPEARS TO BE
ASSOCIATED WITH INSTABILITY WITH THE COLDEST AIR ALOFT. THIS AREA
OF SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST INTO THE WEST CENTRAL
THIS EVENING. ALREADY HAD CHANCE OF SNOW WEST THIS EVENING BUT
ENHANCED THE POPS A BIT FOR THIS FEATURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

ISSUED AT 320 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD
SO WILL LEAVE IT ALONE FOR THIS UPDATE.

STRATOCU HAS DEVELOPED OVER MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES HAVE DEVELOPED
UNDER SOME OF THESE CLOUDS. AS A RESULT...ADDED SCATTERED FLURRIES
TO THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON FORECAST.

A VORT LOBE ROTATING INTO NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL GENERATE
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WEST THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT...IF ANY AT ALL.

THE COMBINATION OF NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND ARCTIC AIR FILTERING
INTO THE REGION WILL GENERATE DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS OVER WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. ISSUED
A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE CWA FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED
TIME PERIOD AS A RESULT.

WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY AND COLD WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO
BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)

ISSUED AT 320 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE LINGERING
COLD TEMPERATURES AND FRIGID WIND CHILLS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN A
NICE WARMING TREND WILL HIGHLIGHT THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.

WIND CHILL HEADLINES WILL BE LIKELY AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING NORTH AND EAST AS SUBZERO TEMPERATURES COUPLE
WITH WINDS TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS. WE WILL HOLD OFF ON
ISSUING THESE HEADLINES WITH CURRENT WIND CHILL HEADLINES IN
PLACE FOR TONIGHT.

ARCTIC AIRMASS PROPAGATES INTO THE EASTERN CONUS THURSDAY ONWARDS AS
A LONG WAVE TROUGH PROGRESSIVELY PUSHES EASTWARD. AFTERWARDS OUR
FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST AGAIN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION FOR THE END OF THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND IF ANY
EMBEDDED WAVE TRACKS CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR REGION. MODELS REMAIN IN
AGREEMENT FOR A VERY NICE WARMING TREND EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO
GREAT PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

BRIEF PERIODS OF LOW MVFR CIGS AND VSBY AT KDIK/KBIS/KJMS IN SNOW EARLY
THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD FOR ALL SITES.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ WEDNESDAY FOR
NDZ017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051.

WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ001>005-
009>013.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AJ