Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KBIS 290149
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
849 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 848 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

AS OF 130 UTC...THE OVERALL INTENSITY OF HIGH BASED CONVECTION
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA CONTINUES TO DECREASE AS THE AREA OF
STORMS PROPAGATES INTO A MUCH COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS EAST
OF HIGHWAY 83. THUS...ANTICIPATE THAT THE OVERALL THREAT FOR
ADDITIONAL WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL
QUICKLY END BY 02-03 UTC. ELSEWHERE...A DRY SLOT IS OVERTAKING
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...AHEAD OF THE NEXT AREA OF STRATIFORM
PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA ASSOCIATED WITH A
SECONDARY SURGE OF COLDER AIR. STRONG PRESSURE RISES AND
ISALLOBARIC FORCING WITH THIS SURGE OVERNIGHT COMBINED WITH A MIXED
LAYER FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH 850-800 MB WITH 45-55KTS TO MIX
SUPPORT THE CURRENT WIND HEADLINES. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS
SHOULD A POSSIBLE EXPANSION OF THE HIGH WIND WARNING BE NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW SLIDING THROUGH SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN WITH COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH
POTENT SHORT WAVE WORKING THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA. SOME CONVECTION
HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING SYSTEM...WITH SOME LIGHTNING
STRIKES NOTED OVER EASTERN MONTANA. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER OUR AREA...WITH
TEMPERATURES PUSHING WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...EXPECT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THEIR EASTWARD PROGRESSION SPREADING
INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. LATEST HIGH-RES MODELS SUGGEST THE
POSSIBILITY OF 2 ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE INITIAL ROUND
MOVING THOUGH PRE-FRONTAL AND THE SECONDARY ROUND COMING LATER
THIS EVENING WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
OVERALL REMAIN TAME...THOUGH WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS DEVELOP WITH HIGH BASED
STORMS.

PRE-FRONTAL PRESSURE RISES PUSH MAINLY THROUGH WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA BUT NUDGE INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA BRINGING STRONG AND
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. LATER IN THE EVENING COLD FRONT SLIDES
THROUGH WITH WINDS SHIFTING NORTHWESTERLY AND BECOMING GUSTY
THROUGHOUT ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

ON SUNDAY...WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE DAY WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING AS FRONT AND SHORT WAVE PUSH
WELL OFF TO THE EAST AND RIDGING RE-DEVELOPS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE
FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM.

NUMEROUS CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST...AS NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE EXTENDED. THE CURRENT 12Z MODEL
SUITE PROJECTS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE LONG TERM. MUCH OF THE ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE RAIN...ALTHOUGH PERIODS OF SNOW CAN
BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS.

THERE IS STRONG MODEL SUPPORT FOR WARM AIR ADVECTING INTO THE STATE
FROM THE CONUS SOUTHWEST...RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES NEARING 20
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH MID WEEK. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH THE PROJECTED ARRIVAL OF A
COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 849 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM AS OF 145 UTC WAS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
MVFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE NIGHT
WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 KTS EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AS
LOW AS 20 PERCENT WILL CONTINUE TO COMBINE WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS TO BRING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO FAR SOUTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA. WINDS WILL SWITCH TOWARDS THE WEST LATER TODAY INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING AND INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL SLIDE THROUGH LATER TONIGHT. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING WHICH MAY
RESULT IN DRY LIGHTING ALONG WITH STRONG AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR NDZ002-003-010-011-
019>021-034.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ SUNDAY FOR
NDZ031>033-040>045.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR NDZ001-009-017-018.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR NDZ004-005-012-
013-022-023-025-035>037-046>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...AYD
FIRE WEATHER...JJS





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.