Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 212052
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
352 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 352 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017

Wind Advisory remains in effect for the southwest until 6 PM MDT
tonight.

As a surface low continues on a northeast push into central
Manitoba, showers in the east and gusty westerly winds will continue
to dissipate through the afternoon/early evening. Tonight cool
Canadian air will sag into ND, dropping overnight lows into the 30s.
Southwest areas may dip into the upper 20s.

Sunday afternoon through Monday another cold front is forecast to
move across the state. The preceding warm front will produce highs
in the upper 50s and upper 60s; generally another seasonably warm
day for most of western and central ND on Sunday. Winds will be
breezy Sunday. Northern areas will have a slight chance for rain in
the afternoon, as the front begins to nudge into ND. The strongest
winds are expected on Monday in association with the surface low
digging into the Northern Great Lakes which is a favorable location
for strong winds over western and central ND. BUFKIT soundings are
indicating peak winds at the top of the mixed layer around 50kts.
Momentum transfer is likely as phasing between surface and 850mb
winds are highlighted well within the 12Z GFS/ECMWF. How much energy
will transfer to the surface is questionable at this point. A wind
headline may be needed for Monday.


.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 352 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017

A progression of surface lows is projected to march across the
Northern Plains through the extended forecast. Occasional chances
for precipitation and windy conditions will prevail through much of
the period. The 12Z model suite provides good agreement on a
strong surface low advancing into the region Thursday and Friday.
Below average temperatures with highs in the upper 30s and 40s are
expected. A chance for light snow may also be possible with this
system late in the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 116 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017

MVFR ceilings and strong winds will impact the first six of the
18Z TAF period.

MVFR ceilings at KISN/KDIK/KMOT (possibly KBIS) should improve to
VFR by mid afternoon. Though, disagreement within the current
HiRes models has provided uncertainty on the timing ceilings will
improve. Models begin to provide more agreement on VFR ceilings
around 22Z.

Strong westerly winds will impact western and central ND through
00Z; tapering off through this evening.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 6 PM MDT this evening for NDZ031>033-040-041-
043-044.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AC
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...AC



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