Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 260519

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1219 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

Issued at 1216 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

Early morning regional MRMS Composite Reflectivity loop continues
to show light returns across much of western and central North
Dakota. Much of this appears to not be reaching the ground with
the MRMS Reflectivity at Lowest Altitude showing far fewer returns
in the lower levels. This isn`t surprising since the 00z Bismarck
sounding showed a large amount of dry air in the mid and low
levels. BUFR forecast soundings keep the dry air in place much of
the night, so the general expectation is for any precipitation to
remain light. Did not change much to the forecast with the best
pops in the south and west. Temperatures should be slow to fall
with the clouds in place.

UPDATE Issued at 926 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

Have backed off a bit more on the timing of potential rain over
the southwest/south central in line with latest guidance. Have
also trimmed down precipitation chances over northern locations.
Updates have been sent.

UPDATE Issued at 626 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

Have backed off on timing of precipitation chances over the
southwest as rain appears to remain well off to the west and
latest high-res models have slowed things down a bit. Otherwise,
previous forecast looks good.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 304 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

At the upper levels, a west coast trough will keep the state in
southwest flow through the short term. While the two most vigorous
waves will pass to the north and south, there does appear to be
enough convergence at the surface for some light precipitation along
an inverted surface trough that will extend from western South
Dakota into southwestern North Dakota overnight. Many of the High
Resolution models are showing fog from east of the Missouri River
valley to the James River valley. While, the HRRR specifically
looks a bit overdone, the feeling is that at least patchy fog will
be possible over these areas overnight and Sunday morning.

Light precipitation chances will continue to propagate east
through the day on Sunday bringing more chances of light showers
to much of the forecast area. Over the James River valley,
forecast soundings show a very brief opportunity of a light
mixture of rain, freezing rain, and possibly sleet Sunday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 304 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

Progressive flow aloft will keep the area in an active pattern,
but split flow will keep any major chances of precipitation to a
minimum. For now, the best chances for some light precipitation
appear to be overnight Tuesday and into Wednesday morning. From
there, model agreement tends to diverge with regards to wave
strength and timing specifics. For this reason, elected to keep
with our in house blend of global models throughout the long term.
Above average high temperatures, generally in the 50s and 60s,
will stick around through the extended period.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1216 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

Patchy fog could develop early this morning over central North
Dakota into the James River Valley bringing localized IFR
conditions. The fog will diminish Sunday morning. Some light rain
is possible, mainly over southern areas into early this Sunday
morning. Localized MVFR visibility will be possible in the light
rain. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail.




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