Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 200455
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1155 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS LIMITED DUE TO TRANSMISSION PROBLEMS...HOWEVER
ENOUGH LOCAL SITES AROUND WITH DEWPOINTS BEING REPORTED IN THE LOWER
TO MID 30S. WITH NEARLY CALM WINDS AND A CLEAR SKY...HAVE OPTED TO
LOWER TEMPS A COUPLE MORE DEGREES PER LATEST HRRR. OTHERWISE QUIET
NIGHT AHEAD. THE HRRR ALSO DEVELOPS SOME PATCHY FOG JUST EAST OF
THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS...AND DID NOT INCLUDE THIS IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1015 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

NO CHANGES REQUIRED WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE OTHER THAN TO BLEND
TO OBSERVED TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THERE ARE NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. DID LOWER
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT...INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S...WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED AND HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE WEST. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MAY MAKE THEIR WAY FROM
SASKATCHEWAN INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

BROAD REX BLOCK ACROSS THE WESTERN US WITH THE NORTH COMPONENT OF
THE REX BLOCK THE RIDGE OVER MONTANA TODAY. TO THE WEST AN EASTERN
PACIFIC TROUGH REMAINS POISED TO MOVE SLOWLY INLAND ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY. AS THIS HAPPENS THE RIDGE WILL MOVE
EAST TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS MAINTAINING A QUIET AND MILD WEATHER
PATTERN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. FORECAST PROBLEM
THEN BECOMES TEMPERATURES AS WEATHER WILL BE NIL. PAST FEW CYCLES
THERE HAS BEEN A GENERAL COOL BIAS TO 24H LOW TEMP FORECASTS SO WILL
ADJUST ACCORDINGLY. TRENDED TOWARDS CONSRAW FOR THE OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT. ON MONDAY WITH THE H500 RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SHOULD SEE HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S WEST TO UPPER 60S/AROUND
70 EAST. SREFBC HAS BEEN THE BEST GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS OF LATE SO
USED THIS FOR MONDAY THEN ADDED A FEW DEGREES AS THE WARM ADVECTION
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE BUT MARGINALLY LESS MIXING...SHOULD BALANCE OUT
WITH A WARMER TEMPS MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE A CONTINUED WARM
AND DRY PERIOD AS A LONG WAVE RIDGE TRAVERSES EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MID-WEEK DEPICTING A LONG
WAVE RIDGE SLOWLY PUSHING EAST ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...RESULTING IN
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER. LOOKING AT HIGHS 65
TO 75 TUESDAY.

GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE
REGION WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE UPPER RIDGE. MAIN ENERGY SPLITS TO THE
NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE A
TAD SLOWER...RESULTING IN SOME VERY LOW POPS OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND MAINLY IN THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

AFTER THE MID WEEK TROUGH MOVES TO OUR EAST...THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK ADVERTISES A FAST-MOVING QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION...KEEPING ANY SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER SYSTEMS WELL TO OUR NORTH.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN MAINLY IN THE 60S WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

NO AVIATION WEATHER ISSUES...VFR CIGS/VSBYS NEXT 24HR.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...KS






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