000
FXUS63 KBIS 211125
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
625 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

ONLY CHANGES TO FORECAST WERE TO POPULATE WITH LATEST HOURLY
OBSERVATIONS. TEMPS WERE RUNNING A LITTLE COLDER THAN FORECAST IN
A FEW LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE...LOW STRATUS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH
SOUTHWARD WHICH IS HANDLED WELL IN FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

NO MAJOR FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

CURRENTLY...QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A
STRONG EMBEDDED S/WV TROUGH PUSHING EAST ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER...NOW CENTERED NEAR TO EAST OF LAKE WINNIPEG. WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS SURGING SOUTH AND EAST
ACROSS MY NORTHERN COUNTIES THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. AT THIS TIME
DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRATUS.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

LOW BKN-OVC CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHWEST AND
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA NOW THROUGH 10Z...EVENTUALLY DEPICTED
BY BOTH THE RAP AND 00Z/06Z NAM TO PUSH AS FAR SOUTH AS BISMARCK
AND JAMESTOWN 10-14Z. AFTERWARDS...STRATUS SHOULD DISSIPATE/BURN
OFF BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE MORNING CLOUDS COUPLED WITH CAA
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY IN
THE 50S ALONG TO NORTH AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...60S SOUTH
AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI.

RETURN FLOW/WAA TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE ROCKIES TODAY THEN PROPAGATES EAST INTO THE
HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

ACTIVE PERIOD EXPECTED WITH STRONG STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. LARGE SURFACE LOW INITIALLY CENTERED OVER
CENTRAL MONTANA 00Z WEDNESDAY TRANSITIONS TO DUAL SURFACE LOWS
OVER SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN AND SOUTHEAST MONTANA BY 12Z WED AS
SHORTWAVE/90KT H250 JET STREAK ROTATE AROUND PARENT UPPER LOW.
BREEZY TO WINDY EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL OCCUR ALSO WITH TIGHT
SURFACE GRADIENT AND 850MB WINDS TO 45KTS LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. SPC CONTINUES TO INCLUDE THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE IN
GENERAL THUNDERSTORM AREA WITH MODELS INDICATING LOW CAPE NUDGING
INTO THIS REGION ALONG WITH H7-H5 LAPSE RATES APPROACHING 8C/KM
TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
HIGHEST QPF ACROSS NORTH AND EAST AS DRY SLOT IS MORE OF A FACTOR
ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS. WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. MODEL DIFFERENCES INCREASE WITH THIS FEATURE WITH
THE GFS A LITTLE FASTER AND FARTHER SOUTH COMPARED TO ECMWF. BOTH
MODELS...HOWEVER...BRING SUB 0C H850 AIR ACROSS THE STATE IN
NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT PRECIP
IN THE FORM OF RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
SUBSTANTIAL MODEL DIFFERENCES BY NEXT WEEKEND WITH GFS SHOWING
STRONGER RIDGE AND DRYER WEATHER OVER ND ON SATURDAY WHILE ECMWF
HAS LESS AMPLIFIED PATTERN AND ANOTHER BATCH OF PRECIP MOVING IN
UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

MVFR STRATUS CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AT THIS TIME...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SOUTH AND EAST
THROUGH MID-MORNING. IMPACTED LOCATIONS INCLUDE KISN-KMOT-KJMS
AND POSSIBLY KBIS. OTHERWISE VFR AT ALL TAF SITES THE REST OF THE
06Z FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JNS
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...JNS
AVIATION...NH