Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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259
FXUS63 KBIS 151724
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1124 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1124 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2018

Latest surface map shows a 1053mb high centered over Sidney, Montana,
with a clear sky across western and most of central North Dakota.
The exception is the James River Valley where a pocket of 925mb
moisture remains high, but gradually gets shunted from north to
south through 00z/6PM CST Tuesday. With a strong pressure gradient
in place across the James River Valley, gusty northwesterly winds
sustained between 20 and 25 mph with gusts to 30 mph will continue
this afternoon. The Jamestown webcam shows drifting snow across
the highway, so will maintain patchy/areas of blowing snow in the
current gridded forecast. As far as the wind chill advisory west,
and wind chill warning elsewhere, criteria still being met within
these respective areas. There will be times this afternoon that we
warm slightly above wind chill advisory and warning criteria, however,
apparent temperatures show advisory/warning criteria returning this
evening through Tuesday morning. Thus, will maintain both wind chill
headlines as previously forecast.

UPDATE Issued at 820 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2018

No major changes required for this update.

UPDATE Issued at 638 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2018

No change for today other than for observed trends through 12
UTC.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 321 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2018

Forecast highlights for the short term period will be sub-zero
temperatures and dangerous wind chills.

Currently, the center of the arctic high was over central
Saskatchewan, with the arctic cold front well south of ND
approaching the southern plains states. Temperatures across ND
ranged from -15F to -5F, and -30F to -20F in the high center in
Saskatchewan.

The arctic high center is forecast to continue sliding south over
the Dakotas today, with its bullseye center over western ND by this
afternoon/evening. The high continues southeast tonight reaching
eastern SD by daybreak Tuesday. Northwest winds should continue
across ND today as the high pushes into the state, with gusty
northwest winds of around 20 mph in south central ND and the James
Valley and east creating more areas of drifting snow and patchy
blowing snow. Winds will diminish during the afternoon as the high
center approaches western ND.

A cold start to the morning with expected morning lows of 15 to 20
below zero. Only a modest recovery in temperatures expected today
with the continued cold advection. Highs of only 5 to 15 below zero
are expected. The coldest night will be tonight (Monday night) with
clear skies, light winds, and the arctic high center crossing ND
into eastern SD by daybreak Tuesday. This is a favored position of
the high for the coldest period in western and central ND. We are
still forecasting lows Monday night in the 20 to 27 below zero
range. Would not be surprised to see a 30 below zero reading in some
locales.

The combination of sub-zero temperatures today and northwest winds
of 10 to 20 mph will create dangerous wind chills. Though winds
decrease tonight, the wind chill values still remain dangerously
low. We could see wind chills of 45 below over much of central ND
today and around 40 below tonight. The wind chill warning and
advisory remains valid through noon on Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 321 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2018

A strong warming trend will commence this week as ridging builds
into the region mid-week followed by a progressive zonal flow
pattern through Friday.

Tuesday:

The surface arctic high continues to slide southeast into the
central plains as an upper level western ridge builds eastward into
the western plains. Dangerous wind chills should be ending by around
noon Tuesday as warm advection commences. By late afternoon we
should see temperatures in the single digits above zero in the James
Valley and Turtle Mountains...and in the teens in the far west.

Wednesday:

The global models depict a smaller-scale upper level closed
low emerging out of the Rockies along/north of the US/Canadian
border on Wednesday and moving east/southeast across our area
Wednesday night. The GFS depicts the farthest southerly track,
moving southeast across North Dakota. The NAM depicts the northern-
most track moving across the southern Canadian Prairies. Only a
slight chance of light snow is expected with this system given the
lack of much moisture associated with this feature, along with the
fast-moving nature of the system. We may see a brief period of brisk
winds with this feature, but as of now we have low confidence in the
track of the system...and thus the model consensus is for mainly
westerly winds of 10 to 20 mph. The good news is the warm-up
expected with the mild Pacific air moving into our region. We are
still anticipating highs in the 20s and 30s.

Thursday through Monday:

Widespread highs in the 30s are forecast both Thursday
and Friday along with a few lower 40s southwest. A southwest flow
then materializes next weekend, which should keep arctic air away
from our area, with high temperatures mainly in the teens and 20s
over the weekend and from 5 to 25 above on Monday. Both the
GFS/ECMWF keep precipitation chances mainly to our south Sat/Sun as
the models depict a southern plains storm system.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1124 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2018

KJMS will be the only terminal with an impact to cigs/vsbys. Cigs
remain at the low-end mvfr threshold, and expect brief periods of
ifr cigs through 21z Monday. Gusty northwest winds 20kt to 30kt
will result in blsn and lifr to mvfr vsbys through 00z Tuesday.
Thereafter, winds subside, cigs and vsbys improve to vfr. Vfr
cigs/vsbys for the remaining terminals this taf period.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Chill Warning until noon CST /11 AM MST/ Tuesday for
NDZ002>005-010>013-018>023-025-033>037-041-042-045>048-050-051.

Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST /11 AM MST/ Tuesday for
NDZ001-009-017-031-032-040-043-044.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...KS



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