812
FXUS63 KBIS 100536
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1236 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible
  Thursday afternoon into the night.

- Temperatures will cool down to the 70s on Friday, before
  warming back up again for the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1236 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

The remainder of the Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been
cancelled early, with convection weakening and moving east of
the forecast area. There are some showers moving in from eastern
Montana that have a history of very strong wind gusts, so will
be keeping an eye on those, although anything strong would be
erratic and low predictability.

UPDATE
Issued at 958 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025

The first Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been allowed to expire,
with storms out of these counties and high confidence in no
additional development. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch continues
from Pierce to McIntosh Counties and east, in effect until 1 AM
CDT. A line of storms is ongoing from Stutsman through Dickey
Counties, with an additional area of storms in northeast Wells
County into Benson and Eddy Counties. SPC mesoanalysis page is
advertising storms moving into an environment with weaker bulk
shear, although adequate 0-3km shear could promote some isolated
strong to severe wind gusts over the next hour or so. Storm
motion is starting to slow down so we are monitoring for any
flash flooding potential. Additional area of showers and
thunderstorms is ongoing in eastern Montana but not expecting
much from this activity beyond some rain and rumbles of thunder,
with pretty limited instability. Freshened up POPs with this
update in line with radar trends and latest blended guidance.

UPDATE
Issued at 757 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025

Increasing clouds and cooling temperatures have improved heat
index values. Thus the Heat Advisory has been cancelled. Severe
Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect for south central and
southwestern North Dakota until 10 PM CDT. A new Severe
Thunderstorm Watch is now in effect for portions of eastern
North Dakota until 1 AM CDT. Hazards for both are hail to golf
ball size, winds to 70 mph, with an isolated tornado also
possible.

UPDATE
Issued at 648 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025

Severe Thunderstorm Watch continues across south central North
Dakota. Weak dry boundary continues to progress eastward meeting
high amount of instability, yet low to moderate amounts of
shear. The result so far has been some large hail with limited
wind gusts. As this boundary moves eastward through the evening,
severe weather will remain possible. Limited change in hazards
is expected. Discrete cells will bring a large hail threat,
while collapsing thunderstorms or line of storms brings a strong
wind threat. A tornado is possible, although limited low level
shear and higher LCLs could limit this threat. For now will
continue watch as is and continue to monitor for severe weather.

In addition...Heat Advisory remains in south central ND until 9
PM CDT. sites are starting to cool with cloud cover and the loss
of daytime heating. Given high dewpoints and elevated heat index
values in these area will let advisory continue.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 400 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025

Hot and humid conditions with chances for severe thunderstorms
are expected through this evening. Southerly flow along a warm front
has brought dewpoints into the 70s for much of central and
southern North Dakota. The hottest areas in this moist southerly
flow could see heat index values above 100 degrees through much
of the evening. A Heat Advisory remains and was expanded
slightly eastward through much of this evening. Meanwhile, a
pseudo dry line is currently progressing across western and
portions of central North Dakota. As this boundary meets the
moist unstable air mass, isolated to scattered severe
thunderstorms will be possible tonight. MUCAPE is very high and
up to 6000 J/KG, with surface based CAPE about the same and
becomes uncapped late this afternoon and early this evening.
There is a lack of shear forecast, with effective bulk shear 25
to 30 knots through the evening. The shear vector is angled to
near perpendicular to the mentioned boundary. Thus discrete
cells are possible initially along this boundary this afternoon
and early evening, likely forming into a line as storms progress
through the evening. Initial threats will be large and abundant
hail with the high amounts of CAPE expected. The lack of shear
may limit the size of hail to around golf ball size. As storms
collapse if a linear mode takes over, strong wind gusts in
excess of 70 mph are possible given DCAPE values over 1000 J/KG.
East of Highway 83 would be the area to monitor for a tornado
or two this evening given high amount of SRH and 0 to 1 km wind
shear. Uncertainty on storm mode, if it is still discrete by the
time storms move into this area later this evening, could be
the limiting factor for tornadoes today. Something to monitor
throughout the evening. Slow moving thunderstorms and high pwat
values today could also lead to some locally heavy rainfall
through this evening. Initial thunderstorms push eastward
tonight, although a few isolated thunderstorms are possible in
the west and central through tonight, with a low chance of
severe weather in this additional development. Lows tonight look
to be in the 60s.

True cold front looks to push through on Thursday. This could
bring an isolated threat for severe weather to much of the
state. Instability and shear look to be lower for Thursday, and
SPC now has a Marginal Risk across much of the state for severe
weather. Slower moving thunderstorms and high PWAT values could
bring another locally heavy rain threat on Thursday, with a
marginal risk for excessive rainfall across the east.
Temperatures will again be warm for Thursday, with slightly
cooler temperatures in the northwest. Lower dewpoints should
lower the heat risk for most areas, although could be something
to monitor in the east. Front fully moves through Thursday
evening through the night. Chances for showers and thunderstorms
could be found as this moves through, with perhaps an isolated
strong to severe thunderstorm. Lows behind the front will be in
50s west to 60s east. A post frontal day then looks to be found
on Friday with highs in the 70s and a few lingering showers and
thunderstorms, with low chances for severe weather. Some breezy
northwest winds could also be found. Lows Friday night look to
be quite cool with lows in the 50s to perhaps upper 40s in some
areas. Shower and thunderstorm chances also diminish Friday
night.

Weak ridging then looks in store for the weekend. Temperatures
look to warm each day with 80s to lower 90s forecast. Chances
for precipitation also look limited through the weekend. Precipitation
chances return to start the work week. NSSL machine learning
guidance has some low probabilities for severe weather Monday
and Tuesday. Warm temperatures in the 80s and 90s could
continue for Monday, then perhaps cool into the 70s on Tuesday
behind the front. Perhaps some breezy winds are found behind
this cold front, although the signal for strong winds is
currently not found.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1236 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Generally VFR conditions through the TAF period. Thunderstorms
have moved off to the east, with some showers possible at KXWA
and KDIK overnight. Winds will be shifting from southerly to
westerly as a front moves through the forecast area, although
winds could be gusty and erratic around any showers.
Thunderstorms are possible late in the TAF period, although low
confidence in timing and location so did not include at any
terminal with this update.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Jones
DISCUSSION...Anglin
AVIATION...Jones