Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 170028

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
628 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

Issued at 617 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

Based primarily on current wind conditions and snow cover lowered
the minimum temperatures across the James River Valley and the
western Devils lake Basin. For the sky grids slowed the cloud
increase until late later this evening.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)

Issued at 224 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

Mild and mainly dry conditions highlight the short term period.

Currently, upper level ridge centered over the Great Plains into
south central Canada. Westerly surface flow and 850mb temperatures
of +10 to +15C contributing to another mild day. SCT-BKN upper
level clouds and some areas seeing light winds under 5 MPH has
hindered the warmup in some locations across west and central ND,
while other areas have warmed above their previous forecast
highs. Thus a tricky afternoon temperature forecast but overall
mild and well above seasonal normals.

Ridge axis continues to our east tonight allowing southwest flow
into the region and a cold front into the central Dakotas. This is
expected to be a dry frontal passage with the main result an
increase in clouds from west to east in advance of an embedded
wave. Temperatures tonight remain mild in the upper 20s to mid

The potent embedded S/WV trough slides east into eastern Montana
by 12Z Friday, then across North Dakota Friday daytime. Models
have been keying in on bringing QPF to my north Friday
morning/afternoon so introduced chance POPs there. Cooler
temperatures due to weak CAA and more sky cover, though still very
mild in the upper 30s and 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)

Issued at 224 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

The long term period will be highlighted by continued mild
temperatures through early next week, followed by a cool-down
thereafter. For precipitation chances, three well defined waves
look to bring moisture to our region Sunday night-Monday, across
the north Tuesday/Tuesday night, then again late in the period
Thursday/Thursday night.

Overall models are in fair agreement with all three waves and thus
the Forecast Builder model blend inserted high chance to likely
POPs for all three above mentioned periods across the region.

Temperatures profiles suggest a mix of rain/snow for the first
two S/WV`s as we remain warm. The late week system will occur
under cooler conditions favoring snow, with accumulations very

Definitely a more active period beginning Sunday night and


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 617 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

VFR conditions will prevail across the region again tonight and
Friday. Low pressure in northern Saskatchewan will keep a dry
southwest to west windflow across the region. Increasing winds
aloft will cause some wind shear conditions surface to 2 thousand
agl after 08-12z. A slight chance of rain after 21z northwest and
north central will bring scattered to broken clouds 35 hundred to
6 thousand agl KISN-KMOT.




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