000
FXUS63 KBIS 171302
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
702 AM CST TUE DEC 17 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 701 AM CST TUE DEC 17 2013

A 3HR PRESSURE MAX OF 5MB HAS NOW MOVED INTO SOUTHEASTERN
MANITOBA...WITH ISALLOBARIC WINDS FROM ROLLA...RUGBY...TO
HARVEY...AND JAMESTOWN...BEGINNING TO DIMINISH EARLY THIS MORNING.
EVEN THOUGH ROLLA IS MARGINALLY AT WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...THE
DOWNWARD TREND IN WIND SPEED WARRANTS ALLOWING THE ADVISORY TO
EXPIRE AT 7 AM CST. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST TUE DEC 17 2013

MAIN HIGHLIGHT IS CURRENT WIND ADVISORY ENCOMPASSING THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS SOUTH INTO JAMESTOWN THROUGH 7 AM CST. OTHERWISE EXPECT
WARM AIR ADVECTION/INCREASING RISING MOTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN
EMERGING WARM FRONT IN EASTERN MONTANA...WHICH WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY NIGHT.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS STRETCHING FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS INTO
JAMES RIVER VALLEY WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE
DIMINISHING BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z. A 3HR PRESSURE MAX OF 5MB WAS
LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA CREATING A 52KT GUST AT BRANDON.
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BEING ACHIEVED AT ROLLA AND RUGBY.
COORDINATED WITH GRAND FORKS AND ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND EXTENDED IT INTO KJMS AS THE PRESSURE
BUBBLE SLIDES SOUTHEAST NEXT FEW HOURS PER RAP13. WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO ABATE AFTER 12Z.

LATEST WATER VAPOR AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS NORTHWEST FLOW
INTO NORTH DAKOTA. WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH A MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD SHIELD EVIDENT IN WESTERN ALBERTA THIS MORNING. THE GFS
H7-H5 RH FIELD REPRESENTS THIS AREA WELL AND WILL FOLLOW. EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE ROUGHLY FROM
WILLISTON TO GARRISON...AND BISMARCK INTO LINTON THIS AFTERNOON.
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF MOSTLY SUNNY BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY
REMAINS ON TRACK...WITH THE HIGHEST MID LEVEL RH/MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. DRY TODAY
AND TONIGHT WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TEENS IN THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS TO UPPER 30S SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST TUE DEC 17 2013

THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT FOR THE PERIOD IS AN ARCTIC FRONT PROGGED TO
PUSH THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA LATE WEDNESDAY AND SUBSEQUENT SNOW
CHANCES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THURSDAY. THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT AT KEEPING THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL TOTALS
CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTHWEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER AND OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. AS IT APPEARS NOW...SNOW AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW WINTER STORM WARNING CRITERIA.
HOWEVER...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA MAY BE MET BY LATE
THURSDAY. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO HANDLE THIS SITUATION IN THE
HWO.

MUCH COLDER ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT. WIND CHILLS AROUND 30 BELOW ZERO WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP NORTHEAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER AND NORTH OF I-94 EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL OVERSPREAD
NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED. WEAK WAVES IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL GENERATE
SLIGHT CHANCES OF SNOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WELL.

A PACIFIC WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO TRAVERSE THE STATE MONDAY.
THIS WOULD BRING RELATIVELY MILDER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. FOR
NOW FORECAST NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES
REGARDING A DAY 7 FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 701 AM CST TUE DEC 17 2013

VFR CIGS/VSBYS NEXT 24HR. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20KT TO 30KT WILL
DOMINATE THROUGH 15Z AT KJMS...WITH 15KT OR LESS ELSEWHERE. EXPECT
SCT TO BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES TODAY AND THEN SLIDES THROUGH THE AERODROMES TONIGHT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...KS