Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 240520
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1220 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1219 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017

Widespread showers continue across west and central North Dakota.
Current forecast need no update.

UPDATE
Issued at 953 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

No significant changes with this forecast issuance. Showers
continue to stream north across the Dakotas as multiple embedded
waves lift out of the closed low over the Desert Southwest.

UPDATE
Issued at 657 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

Forecast remains on track. Adjusted POPs now through the evening
based on latest radar imagery and high res guidance (ESRL HRRR,
RAP, etc). Also expanded thunder wording to encompass more of the
James River Valley based on latest SREF thunder probs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 1256 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

Widespread rainfall is expected by this evening. Broad scale
lift produced by a significant upper trough over the western US
and a surface trough draped across the eastern Dakotas will
produce scattered showers across southwest and south central
North Dakota this this afternoon. Showers will become more
widespread this evening and overnight as a shortwave trough ejects
across North Dakota and provides enhanced widespread lift in a
strongly baroclinic environment. Rainfall amounts near 2 inches
are forecast for the far southeast with about a half inch central
and lesser amounts northwest.

A small area of thunderstorm chances will exist across Dickey and
Lamoure counties today, otherwise only showers are expected. Low
probability of hydrology issues from the rain at this time as its
forecast over a 18 to 24 hour period in an area that should be
able to absorb the rainfall.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 1256 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

Widespread showers will linger on Sunday across much of central
and eastern North Dakota, diminishing Sunday night. Otherwise,
we`ll see cool temperatures through mid week with scattered frost
chances Monday and Tuesday morning. Low temperatures fall into
the mid 30s west and south central during that period. Highs
Monday and Tuesday should be in the mid 50s to around 60. A slow
moderation of temperatures is expected by the end of the week with
highs in the low to mid 60s Wednesday through Friday with mainly
dry weather.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1219 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017

MVFR/IFR ceilings across southern and central ND will spread
northward into KISN before 12z. Ceilings to become IFR across all
TAF sites early this morning, except remaining MVFR at KISN.
Conditions improving to VFR at KISN Sunday afternoon, and at KMOT
Sunday evening.

Showers will continue to stream northward across the state to all
terminals. Moderate to heavy showers at times, especially
for KJMS. Precipitation chances decrease from northwest to southeast
on Sunday, ending first at KISN by 18z and with only slight chances
remaining at KMOT/KBIS/KJMS by late Sunday evening.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...JV



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