000
FXUS63 KBIS 261951
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
251 PM CDT Mon Sep 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 241 PM CDT Mon Sep 26 2016

Frost tonight highlights the short term forecast.

Issued a Frost Advisory for much of western and central North
Dakota generally east of US Highway 85. Undercut the 12 UTC
guidance consensus for lows tonight given the observed temperature
pattern from this morning which came in cooler than than forecast.
Thus, in a similar setup with good radiational cooling tonight,
widespread lows in the lower to mid 30s are expected for the
aforementioned areas. Across the far west, low level warm air
advection through the night may hold temperatures high enough to
prevent frost. However, this will have to be monitored.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 241 PM CDT Mon Sep 26 2016

Mild conditions through the period highlight the extended
forecast.

The 12 UTC global suites are in agreement on an upper level ridge
building across the Northern Plains Wednesday and Thursday.
Thereafter, the upper level flow transitions to southwest aloft
across the region on the upstream side of the ridge. This favors
slightly above normal temperatures with highs in the upper 60s and
70s for the period. The chance for showers and thunderstorms
returns Saturday night through Sunday as sufficient moisture may
return to the region coupled with impulses embedded in the upper
level southwest flow potentially ejecting out of the digging west
coast trough.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 241 PM CDT Mon Sep 26 2016

VFR conditions are forecast across western and central North
Dakota for the 18 UTC TAF cycle. Strong northwest winds with
gusts of 30-35kts are possible across the Turtle Mountains area
and James River Valley this afternoon, including KJMS.
&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory from 1 AM CDT /midnight MDT/ to 8 AM CDT /7 AM
MDT/ Tuesday for NDZ002>005-010>013-019>023-025-034>037-042-
045>048-050-051.

&&

$$

PJA