000
FXUS63 KBIS 241720
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1220 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017

Today`s winds continue to be the main concern this update. Winds to
maintain sustained speeds of 20-25 mph and gusts to 30-35 mph
until early evening when the surface layer begins to decouple from
winds aloft. Another weaker cold front is progged to move south
across the state late tonight and Sunday morning, but winds aloft
not as strong with this last push of cold air - expecting northwest
winds of around 15 mph with some gusts over 20 mph possible for
Sunday. Then a break from the winds Monday with surface high
pressure over us.

Lowered temps a tad based on current observation trends in central
ND not quite as high as forecast.

UPDATE Issued at 859 AM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017

Main changes were to clouds this morning. Otherwise current
forecast looks ok with breezy conditions statewide.

UPDATE Issued at 630 AM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017

Isolated showers are currently exiting the far southeast portion
of the CWA. Additional showers are expected to develop this
morning over eastern portions of central ND. Otherwise partly
sunny central to mostly sunny west today. Winds will become breezy
by mid to late morning.

Made some minor adjustments to sky cover and pops based on latest
radar and satellite analysis. Otherwise, updated latest sensible
weather elements and blended to mid morning values.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 308 AM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017

Overnight lows and minimal precipitation chances early this
morning and again late tonight highlight the short term.

Currently, upper level low is dropping southeast through eastern
ND. Forcing from the low is producing an area of showers extending
back into central ND. Mesoscale models have been having a hard
time picking up on the western extent of the precipitation this
morning, so have penciled in some pops early this morning sliding
southeast through south central ND. We managed to measure a
hundredth at the office with these showers, and don`t expect much
more as they track across the southern James River Valley through
12-13 UTC.

During the day today expect breezy conditions with more clouds
central and scattered showers over eastern portions of central ND.
More sun is expected across the west. It will be another cool day
with highs ranging from the mid 50s in the Turtle Mountains to the
upper 60s southwest.

Tonight will be another cool night with high pressure building
over the state behind the exiting upper low. Lowered minimum
temperatures tonight below given guidance given the expected light
winds and dry atmosphere. Would have lowered even more but both
the NAM/GFS indicate a low-mid level feature dropping southeast
late tonight into early Sunday morning in cyclonic flow aloft. A
blend of short range models does produce an area of slight chance
pops spreading northwest to southeast across the forecast area.
Any precipitation amounts will be minimal and the increasing
clouds, wherever they end up, should keep us from seeing any
frost. Later shifts will likely have to refine move through the
day.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 308 AM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017

Warm temperatures and Thunderstorms early in the extended period,
then back to cool and mainly dry conditions mid to late week.

Upper level low pressure currently over the northern Pacific/Gulf
of Alaska will move onto the British Columbia coast late in the
weekend and then into the central Canadian prairie provinces by
Tuesday and Wednesday, before dropping into the northern Great
Lakes region by late next week.

Upper level ridging ahead of the low will work into the northern
plains late Monday and Tuesday. After cooler than average
temperatures over the weekend we are expected to warm up into the
70s east to 80s west on Monday. Significantly warmer temperatures
spread into western ND Tuesday ahead of a surface cold front
associated with the aforementioned upper low. GEFS mean surface
temperatures are in the mid 90s across southwest and south central
ND with 85H temperatures around 25-27 degrees celsius. We raised
temperatures on Tuesday over given guidance considering the strong
thermal ridging over the area.

Thunderstorms will be a possibility on Tuesday given the strong
surface heating during the day and the approaching cold front
Tuesday evening. Currently it looks like most of the area will be
capped through the day Tuesday with the possible exception of the
far north. This would be the favored area for afternoon
convection. Better chances of showers and thunderstorms will exist
Tuesday night as the cold front and upper level trough move
through the area. Will need to monitor over the coming days for
the potential for severe weather Tuesday evening.

Once this wave traverses the area, most of western and central ND
will be in the dry sector of the upper low that slowly drops from
central Canada, into the northern Great Lakes region. Diurnally
driven scattered showers will be a possibility mid to late week
but no big storm systems are indicated after the Tuesday system.
Temperatures will also trend cooler with highs in the 60s and 70s
next Thursday through Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017

High pressure across Montana with low pressure over the Great Lakes
into Minnesota will maintain gusty northwest winds across the state
Saturday afternoon. MVFR ceilings are likely from KMOT-KJMS Saturday
afternoon becoming VFR after 21z. Tonight an upper level trough will
bring scattered showers across central North Dakota. VFR all TAF
sites Saturday night and Sunday.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...WAA