Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 230455

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1155 PM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017

Issued at 1155 PM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017

Latest satellite imagery shows few mid and sct high clouds ahead
of an approaching shortwave in east central Saskatchewan. Adjusted
sky grids slightly to better match current satellite trends and
surface observations. Otherwise current gridded forecast remains
on track.

UPDATE Issued at 934 PM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017

Only some minor adjustments to sky cover based on latest satellite
analysis. Otherwise no changes to the going forecast. Updated text
products will be sent shortly.

UPDATE Issued at 631 PM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017

Given the expected light winds and mostly clear skies overnight
and considering the cool temperatures this morning, we lowered
temperatures a few degrees across the CWA tonight, closer to a
blend of numerical and gridded GFS MOS guidance with ECMWF MOS
gridded guidance, both of which has been performed well lately.
Otherwise no significant changes to the going forecast.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017

Current surface analysis places high pressure over the northern
and central plains. Upper level analysis places ridge over the
Rockies with trough over the midwest. Northwest flow remains over
our area with a short wave moving through which is only resulting
in some clouds over eastern portions of the area.

For tonight...quiet weather is on tap with surface high over the

On Wednesday...high meanders off to the east with trough/low
developing and deepening to the east of the Rockies, resulting in
winds shifting south/southeasterly. Potent short wave dives south
through Manitoba/Ontario, but should stay to the east of us so
will keep forecast dry.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017

Quiet weather continues through the day on Thursday as upper ridge
axis pushes east over our area.

Behind the ridge axis, potent short wave attempts to close off as
it slides into the plains. This will interact with modest
instability to bring shower/thunderstorm chances across the area
as it moves east on Friday. Right now not thinking much of severe
chances, but the potential is there for some isolated severe
activity with the instability in place. Will have to keep an eye
on this in subsequent forecasts.

Precipitation chances scoot east on Saturday affecting mainly
north central North Dakota into the James River Valley as the
system continues on its way. Mainly dry conditions will follow
into early next week as upper ridge rebuilds over the western
United States.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017

Continued Vfr cigs/vsbys this Taf period with few/sct mid and high
clouds over the terminals.




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