000
FXUS63 KBIS 110056
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
656 PM CST TUE DEC 10 2013

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 656 PM CST TUE DEC 10 2013

YET ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS
EVENING IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM NOW OVER NEBRASKA.
1040 SFC HIGH APPROACHING NORTHEASTERN MONTANA...CLEARING SKIES
ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND RESULTING IN RAPIDLY
FALLING TEMPERATURES. ALREADY 11 BELOW ZERO AT CROSBY. ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURES BASED ON LATEST OBS AND THE HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS...AND MAY HAVE TO AGAIN LATER THIS EVENING DEPENDING ON HOW
THE NEAR TERM FORECAST HOLDS UP. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OVER
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING...THEN QUICKLY MOVES SOUTH TO
ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA BY 12Z. WINDS REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO
RESULT IN VERY COLD WIND CHILLS THROUGH TONIGHT...AND WILL STAY
AS IS WITH THE INHERITED WIND CHILL ADVISORY AREA WIDE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CST TUE DEC 10 2013

WEAK ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTH CENTRAL LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON PRODUCING SOME SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL.
ARCTIC HIGH MOVING INTO THE REGION TONIGHT CLEARING SKIES FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH. GUSTY WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH WILL CAUSE SOME BLOWING SNOW
THROUGH TUESDAY MID EVENING. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY WIND CHILL
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE ADVISORY RANGE OVER ALL OF THE WEST
AND CENTRAL. ALTHOUGH THE SOUTHWEST WILL SEE THE WIND CHILLS REACH
-25 AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL FOR SIMPLICITY ISSUE THE
WIND CHILL ADVISORY AS A SINGLE BLOCK FOR THE REGION BEGINNING
AT 6 PM AND CONTINUE THROUGH NOON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT
FOR THE REGION WITH WEDNESDAY MORNING LOWS CLOSE TO 20 BELOW NORTH
CENTRAL TO 12 TO 15 BELOW SOUTH. WARM ADVECTION WEDNESDAY ACROSS
THE NORTH CENTRAL MAKES SOME CLOUDS...BUT AM SKEPTICAL ABOUT SNOW
SO REPLACED THE EARLIER CHANCE OF SNOW WITH FLURRIES NORTH
CENTRAL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CST TUE DEC 10 2013

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD CONCERNS
DIFFICULTIES IN TIMING ARCTIC AIRMASSES/COLD FRONTS ARRIVING AND
EXITING THE STATE. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST...WHICH DEPENDS GREATLY ON HOW DEEP AN ARCTIC
AIRMASS BECOMES ENTRENCHED OVER A SITE - OR HOW QUICKLY THE ARCTIC
AIR MOVES AWAY FROM A SPECIFIC LOCALE.

ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE LEE OF
THE ROCKIES OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA/NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA...WITH AN
ARCTIC HIGH POSITIONED OVER THE YUKON AND NORTHERN ALBERTA. THE
ARCTIC HIGH MOVES SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY AND REACHES THE NORTH
DAKOTA BORDER DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW A NICE WARM-UP
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE MUCH MILDER WITH
HIGHS FROM 10 TO 20 ABOVE ZERO NORTH AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER...AND 20 TO 30 ABOVE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER.
AS THE ARCTIC FRONT APPROACHES THE STATE FROM THE NORTH THIS WILL
INDUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES.

THIS ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN THE ARCTIC AIRMASS
REMAINING AT OR NEAR THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER OF NORTH DAKOTA ON
FRIDAY. MILDER AIR BEGINS PUSHING EASTWARD INTO SOUTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA ON FRIDAY...WITH WARM ADVECTION CONTINUING FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW A BRIEF WARM PERIOD AHEAD OF THE NEXT ARCTIC AIRMASS/COLD
FRONT THAT ARRIVES SATURDAY...AND EXITS THE STATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE A PROLONGED PERIOD WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM
ZERO TO 5 BELOW ZERO IN THE NORTH CENTRAL/TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO THE
TEENS/20S ABOVE ZERO IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST.

SATURDAY`S ARCTIC AIRMASS IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE
STATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WARMER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
AND CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW RETURN WITH A LOW PRESSURE CLIPPER-TYPE
SYSTEM THAT MOVES SOUTHEAST OUT OF SASKATCHEWAN SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)

ISSUED AT 656 CST TUE DEC 10 2013

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO ALL
TERMINALS TONIGHT. WARM FRONT MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON WILL THEN RESULT IN INCREASING MID TO UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS MOST LOCATIONS. MAY SEE -SHSN AT KISN-KMOT-KJMS LATER
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ WEDNESDAY FOR
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...NH