Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 252031
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
331 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

AS DEPICTED WELL BY THE HRRR RUNS FROM THIS MORNING AND THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SURFACE BASED CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY...ANY THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE MUCH MORE ISOLATED COMPARED TO THE MORE
DOMINANT RAIN SHOWER MODE. GIVEN THE DIURNAL NATURE OF THIS
CONVECTION AND LACK OF STRONG FORCING...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL FADE WITH SUNSET. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

OTHERWISE FOR TONIGHT...DID ADD A PATCHY FOG MENTION TO THE SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST WITH RAINFALL FROM EARLIER TODAY...CLEARING
SKIES TONIGHT AND LIGHT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE HIGH.

A MILD TUESDAY IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S
IN A RATHER DEFUSE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND UPPER JAMES RIVER
VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK IMPULSES
EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. ONCE AGAIN GIVEN WEAK
INSTABILITY...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

A PERSISTING REX BLOCKING PATTERN...OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...IS
PROJECTED WITHIN THE CURRENT ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS TO
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED. SPLIT FLOW ALOFT WILL
RESULT AND CONTINUE OVER NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE WEEKEND.

THEREAFTER...A TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW IS PROJECTED BY THE LONG
TERM MODELS. OVERALL...SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTS WAVES WITHIN THE
NORTHERN STREAM ALOFT WILL RESULT IN SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE LONG TERM. AS OF NOW...THE GREATEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE COMPLEXITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW HAS
RESULTED IN HIGHER THAN NORMAL MODEL UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

MVFR/VFR CUMULUS FIELDS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHWEST
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH SCATTERED TO ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND STRATUS WILL CONTINUE
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. PRECIPITATION AREA
WIDE WILL BEGIN TO FADE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...AYD


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