000
FXUS63 KBIS 240706
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
106 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 106 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

INHERITED FORECAST ON TRACK. CLOUDS INCREASING WEST AHEAD OF OUR
NEXT CLIPPER. STILL EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO ENTER THE WEST 10-12Z
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AM HOURS. A WINTRY MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE
DESPITE AIR TEMPERATURES +32F WITH GROUND/ROAD SFC TEMPERATURES
SUB-FREEZING.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 957 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

LATEST RAP/HRRR ARE BRINGING PRECIPITATION INTO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AROUND 12 UTC. THIS IS JUST A BIT QUICKER THAN EARLIER
FORECAST SO BROUGHT A SLIGHT CHANCE TO THE FAR WEST 10-11 UTC AND
THEN INTO THE WESTERN THIRD FROM 12-15 UTC...JUST A BIT FASTER
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. LATER PERIODS LOOK REASONABLE FOR NOW.

ANOTHER CONCERN IS SURFACE TEMPERATURES. AIR TEMPERATURES RISE
WITH THE APPROACHING SYSTEM WITH MAINLY MID 30S IN THE WEST WHEN
THE PRECIPITATION ARRIVES. BUT AS WE SAW IN NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA
LAST NIGHT...ACTUAL ROAD SURFACES LAG BEHIND AND COULD STILL BE
BELOW FREEZING AS PRECIPITATION BEGINS. DID ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
FREEZING RAIN FAR WEST AROUND 12 UTC. OVERNIGHT SHIFT WILL NEED TO
MONITOR SURFACE TEMPERATURES. ONCE THE SUN COMES UP...SURFACE
TEMPS WILL RISE QUICKLY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 552 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES THIS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS FROM THE NORTH AND WEST EXPECTED THIS EVENING. SHORTWAVE
ASSOCIATED WITH OUR NEXT SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING ONTO THE
BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST...AND IS EXPECTED TO BRING PRECIPITATION
FROM WESTERN INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON
SATURDAY. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER BASED ON
SATELLITE AND POPULATED LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS. UPDATED
TEXT PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LIKELY POPS. HOWEVER...THE MAIN
FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE DETERMINING THE PRECIP TYPE. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE MAINLY A RAIN/SNOW MIX DEVELOPING ALONG AND
EAST OF A LINE FROM SHERWOOD TO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. ALL RAIN
IS FORECAST WEST OF SAID LINE. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN
CONFINED TO THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN REGION...WITH APPROXIMATELY ONE
HALF AN INCH OR LESS EXPECTED BY SUNSET SATURDAY.

WINDY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE
CLIPPER SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AREAS ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA COULD REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. WILL MENTION THIS POSSIBILITY IN THE HWO FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

MILD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED. LIGHT
RAIN...FREEZING RAIN OR SNOW IS LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT.

LATEST 12 UTC GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT DEPICTING
THE CLIPPER SATURDAY/SUNDAY. GREATEST AMOUNTS OF PRECIP SHOULD
FALL ALONG THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE A
COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH. PRECIP TYPE AND TRANSITIONS WILL BE THE
MAIN ISSUE. DURING THE DAY SATURDAY TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WELL
ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. THIS WOULD KEEP ALL
PRECIPITATION IN A LIQUID STATE. DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SATURDAY
WE MAY SEE A TRANSITION ACROSS THE EAST FROM RAIN...TO FREEZING
RAIN AND EVENTUALLY TO SNOW. ICE AND/OR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD
BE RATHER MINIMAL WITH ONLY BRIEF TRANSITION PERIODS AND WARM
GROUND.

LOOKING AT THE FAR EXTENDED...LATE NEXT WEEK...WE MAY RETURN TO A
SLIGHTLY COOLER PATTERN WITH AN ARCTIC INTRUSION RETURNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 106 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. LIGHT RAIN WILL SPREAD EAST OVER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AFTER 10Z SATURDAY...AND INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AROUND
MIDDAY. PRECIPITATION MAY INITIALLY BEGIN AS A RAIN/FREEZING RAIN
MIX IN THE FAR WEST BEFORE TURNING TO ALL RAIN. RAIN WILL THEN
TRANSITION TO A -RASN MIX THEN ALL SNOW FROM 00-06Z SUNDAY. MVFR
TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS TAF SITES ONCE PRECIPITATION
BEGINS. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA INCLUDING KDIK SATURDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...TWH/NH