000
FXUS63 KBIS 080953
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
353 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2014

MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE TIMING OF A WARM FRONTAL
SYSTEM SHIFTING INTO NORTH DAKOTA FROM EASTERN MONTANA...AND ITS
IMPACT IN DETERMINING WHEN WIDESPREAD OVERCAST CONDITIONS WILL
GIVE WAY TO DECREASING CLOUDS. THE LATEST FOG/STRATUS LOOP AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW OVERCAST CONDITIONS ACROSS
ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHWEST. HIGHER CLOUDS PUSHING IN FROM SASKATCHEWAN
LIKELY HIDING THE OVERALL EXTENT OF THE CLOUDS FARTHER UPSTREAM.
NO ONE PARTICULAR MODEL IS HANDLING THE EXTENT OF THE CLOUDS
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WELL. THUS WILL EXTRAPOLATE
CLOUDS BASED ON THE WARM FRONTAL MOVEMENT AND GO WITH NEARLY A
PERSISTENT PATTERN THROUGH ABOUT 18Z...THEN DECREASE THE CLOUDS
WITH THE WARM FRONTAL MOVEMENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT
ON THIS AND MAY NEED TO BE ALTERED IF CLOUDS ERODE QUICKER OR LAST
LONGER. IT IS POSSIBLE THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY MAY NOT SEE SIGNIFICANT
IMPROVEMENTS UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES
TONIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING. FORECAST HIGHS TODAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID AND UPPER 20S EAST CENTRAL TO THE UPPER 40S SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2014

A MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN WILL DOMINATE THE EXTENDED PERIOD
AS THE HUDSON BAY UPPER LOW RETREATS TO THE NORTH ALLOWING PACIFIC
AIR TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD
OF MILD TEMPERATURES WITH ONLY SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS.

SIGNIFICANTLY...THE H500 SHORT WAVES AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOWS
WILL GENERALLY TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA DURING THIS PERIOD
KEEPING THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE STATE.

SUNDAY WILL BE THE MILDEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS AROUND 60
SOUTHWEST...TO THE 50S CENTRAL..AND AROUND 40 FAR NORTH CENTRAL
WHERE SNOW COVER IS DEEP. A BRIEF COOL DOWN WILL OCCUR MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY AS A WEAK H500 TROUGH MOVES THOUGH ALLOWING SOME
COOLER AIR TO MOVE IN. RAISED THE WINDS MONDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THIS COLD FRONT WITH GFS/NAM SPREADING 40 TO 50KT H850 WINDS INT0
THE REGION. THIS WILL ALSO BE THE MAN PRECIPITATION FOR THE
PERIOD... WITH THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH GETTING SOME POST FRONTAL
RAIN/SNOW. AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT. THIS TRANSITIONS BACK TO A
PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN WITH MILD AND DRY AIR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2014

A WARM FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS WESTERN AND INTO CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY. WIDESPREAD LOW VFR/MVFR CIGS CAN BE
EXPECTED UNTIL THEN...WITH CIGS LIFTING FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER
12Z SATURDAY. KJMS WILL LIKELY HOLD ONTO SOME MVFR CIGS THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ACROSS THE
REMAINING TERMINALS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...KS