Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 012359
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
659 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 653 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS
THROUGH 23 UTC...AND A TIME LAGGED ENSEMBLE OF THE 20-22 UTC HIGH
RESOLUTION SUITES DEPICTING SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE VORT LOBE CLEARLY
EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER LAKE WINNIPEG EARLY THIS
EVENING THAT WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE SMALL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF THUNDER IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE.

CURRENTLY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES EXTENDED WELL
NORTH INTO NORTHERN ALBERTA/BRITISH COLUMBIA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON
THE EAST SIDE OF THIS ELONGATED RIDGE WAS OVER CENTRAL
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA. MEANWHILE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH WAS
MOVING INTO HUDSON BAY FROM THE NORTH. AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE COOL
AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM EXTENDED ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA AND
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

THE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING FROM NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
WILL DROP SOUTH BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS AND A SMALL CHANCE OF
SHOWERS INTO THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT...AND IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON
MONDAY. WEAK CAPE BUT STRONG BULK SHEAR ACCOMPANY THE SHORTWAVE.
HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME TALL SKINNY AND WEAK
CAPE...MAINLY IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE.
TIMING INDICATES THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER WOULD BE IN THE LATE
MORNING...AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...WHEN THE BEST UPPER LEVEL
FORCING IS IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA AREAS. EXPECT MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND UNDER A
TENTH OF AN INCH FOR ANY AREA RIGHT BENEATH ANY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSHOWER.

AS THE CURRENT COOL HIGH PRESSURE EXITS TO OUR SOUTH
TONIGHT...WARMER AIR UP TO H850 WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO
THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S ON MONDAY DESPITE INCREASED CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

OVERALL...DRY AND SEASONABLE TO MILD THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING
WORK WEEK...WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
WEEKEND.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTH ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
HUDSON BAY LOW/TROUGH INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES AREA
ON WEDNESDAY. COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL
AFFECT THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH DAKOTA...AND EXPECTING HIGHS
WEDNESDAY TO RANGE FROM THE MID 60S IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS/JAMES
VALLEY TO THE MID 70S IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

BY THURSDAY THE WESTERN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EAST INTO THE
WESTERN PLAINS BRINGING A VERY WARM THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

BY FRIDAY A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES...ALONG WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH CUTTING OFF OVER
CALIFORNIA/4-CORNERS BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE THAT WILL
HAVE ADVANCED INTO THE PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND
POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 653 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA FOR THE 00 UTC TAF CYCLE. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...AYD



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