Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 280500
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1200 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1151 PM CDT Wed Jul 27 2016

Latest radar trends across central North Dakota suggest the
thunderstorm potential will be limited to isolated. Bufkit
NAM soundings also have limited cape and shear tonight. Trimmed
back pops west central through early morning where HRRR shows
little precip until after 4 am. One or two more vigorous
thunderstorms may impact the southwest where a better shear and
cape environment will support them through the early morning
hours.

UPDATE Issued at 931 PM CDT Wed Jul 27 2016

Added a mention of fog across western North Dakota per agreement
amongst the 01 UTC RAP/HRRR and 18 UTC NAM NEST visibility
forecasts for late tonight into Thursday morning. This is
plausible given favorable weak upslope flow and already small
temperature and dewpoint spreads as of 02 UTC.

UPDATE Issued at 649 PM CDT Wed Jul 27 2016

No significant change with this forecast update other than to
blend to observed trends through 23 UTC. Multiple impulses
embedded in northwest flow aloft will interact with a modestly
unstable environment and appreciable moisture with PWATS near
1.40 inches to continue scattered showers and thunderstorms along
and west of US Highway 83 through the night. Severe weather is not
expected. Convection is expected to become focused southwest
through the night as the moisture axis shifts southwest.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Wed Jul 27 2016

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely this afternoon and
evening across western North Dakota. An upper level wave continues
to push southeast across the region. This is producing the needed
lift for precipitation. A moderately unstable atmosphere may
produce some strong thunderstorms, but severe weather is not
anticipated as shear and lapse rates are rather unimpressive.

Tonight, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected across
western and southern North Dakota as moist upslope flow and upper
level divergence continues across the region. Additionally, low
stratus and fog may develop as the boundary layer remains rather
moist and flow remains weak. At this time it appears western North
Dakota is the favored location for any fog and stratus development
as dry northerly winds will help erode boundary layer moisture
across portions of eastern North Dakota.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Wed Jul 27 2016

Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue through
next week...with perhaps the exception being Saturday. North
Dakota will be in northwest flow through the remainder of the
week. This will bring wave after wave across North Dakota. Timing
individual waves and associated precipitation is difficult at
best, but general model consensus is western and southern North
Dakota have the best chance at seeing precipitation through the
rest of the week.

Warmer temperatures are expected this weekend as a ridge begins
building into the Northern Plains. Readings in the 90s will be
common.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1151 PM CDT Wed Jul 27 2016

Aviation concerns focused around low vfr to mvfr cigs/vsbys. This
includes KISN, where mvfr cigs are expected until 12z Thursday. KBIS
will have periodic -shra with low vfr cigs. A period of mvfr cigs is
forecast at KDIK 10z-15z Thursday along with 6sm in patchy fog.
For KMOT/KJMS, no aviation concerns at this time with light winds
and vfr cigs/vsbys.

&&

.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...KS



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