165
FXUS63 KBIS 211816
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
116 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017

The latest obs were blended into the forecast. No other changes
were made.

UPDATE Issued at 949 AM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017

Sfc cold front has made it through western and central ND. Still
breezy to windy with tight pressure gradient. Winds are expected
to pick up again late morning and afternoon as mixing height
increases. Strongest winds still appear to be in the southwest but
will monitor for possible expansion in areal extent this
afternoon.

Band of showers continues to work east across central ND this
morning. there were a couple of lightning strikes over Stutsman
county earlier, but mainly showers expected through the remainder
of the morning into early afternoon. Made some minor adjustments
to sky cover and pops based on latest satellite/radar trends and
latest iterations of mesoscale models.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)

Issued at 348 AM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017

Forecast highlights in the short term period will be gusty
westerly winds over the next 12-14 hours along with cooler daytime
highs.

Currently, upper level trough extends from the southern Rockies
northward over the Northern High Plains region with south-
southwest flow aloft over the Dakotas. Cold front over central ND
ahead of the trough continues to move eastward. Pressure rises as
advertised by models continue to diminish east with time resulting
in peak wind gusts across my central counties at or below 40 MPH.
Earlier we did have two high wind gusts observed to 58 MPH.
Expect the downward trend for gusts to continue as pressure rises
wash out. Upper level jet dynamics along with an embedded SW/V
impulse developing precipitation across western South Dakota. This
area of rain will move into far southwest/far south central ND
between now and 11Z.

For today, winds remain breezy across the local region, especially
the higher terrain of the southwest where BUFKIT analysis
continues to suggest 35-40KT winds within the mixed layer. Lesser
other locations. Thus will continue with the current wind advisory
as is across the southwest. Rain moving into southern areas early
this morning will continue to lift north-northeast mainly impacting
my central counties this morning and afternoon before lifting out
of the area later today. Much cooler today behind this morning`s
front with highs mainly in the 50s.

Winds taper off this evening with decreasing cloud cover west to
east. Cool overnight temperatures from the upper 20s southwest and
30s elsewhere.


.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)

Issued at 348 AM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017

Active pattern prevails in the long term period.

Series of SW`Vs push across our region Sunday-Monday night.
Another cold front is advertised later in the day Sunday into
Sunday evening, then yet another on Monday associated with these
waves. Both days will see strong wind potential along with chances
for precipitation. Increased winds from model blend to better
capture what BUFKIT indicates. Breezy conditions look to continue
as well into Tuesday as another area of low pressure moves east
across south central Canada.

Ridging tries to rebuild Tuesday night - Wednesday bringing
another period of warm temperatures mid-week along with dry
conditions. We continue to watch the Wed night/Thursday time
period closely. Vigorous SW/V diving east-southeast from southwest
Canada Wed afternoon into the Northern Plains Wednesday night will
flatten the ridge and will bring a strong surface low/cold front
across the state Wed night. Both the GFS and ECMWF are in
agreement with this. Strong CAA/gradient forcing will likely
result in a period of strong winds during and after the FROPA.

Both models bring in more QPF Wed night into early Thursday with
the 00Z runs. Coupled with -4 to -10C 850mb temperatures will need
to monitor the potential for accumulating snow given the timing
of QPF during the night Wed and AM hours of Thursday. Daytime
highs in the 40s and overnight lows well into the 20s are forecast
for the end of the work week thanks to the strong cold air surge.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 116 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017

MVFR ceilings and strong winds will impact the first six of the
18Z TAF period.

MVFR ceilings at KISN/KDIK/KMOT (possibly KBIS) should improve to
VFR by mid afternoon. Though, disagreement within the current
HiRes models has provided uncertainty on the timing ceilings will
improve. Models begin to provide more agreement on VFR ceilings
around 22Z.

Strong westerly winds will impact western and central ND through
00Z; tapering off through this evening.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 6 PM MDT this evening for NDZ031>033-040-041-
043-044.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AC
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AC