


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
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413 FXUS63 KBIS 120255 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 955 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... -Areas of smoke return to much of the area this evening, and will gradually depart west to east Saturday. -Dry with a warming trend through the weekend. -Medium chances (30 to 60 percent) for showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast Monday night. -Notably cooler mid-week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 949 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 There are no weather updates with this recent product issuance. Smoke continues to filter south-southeast across the region. Will increase the aerial coverage and messaging in the forecast. UPDATE Issued at 617 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Main edit to the forecast was to refine POPs a bit, removing southeast where nothing is occurring, and tweaking north central/northeast where isolated convection continues near the upper low. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 244 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Current surface analysis places trough from western Ontario into the upper midwest and central plains, while high remains over central into eastern Montana. Upper level analysis places low along the southern Manitoba/Saskatchewan border with cyclonic flow stretching into our area. This is resulting in some isolated to scattered rain showers, mainly along our northern tier. Otherwise, smoke is starting to make its way into northwest North Dakota again as seen on latest satellite depiction, and noted on upstream observations. For the rest of this afternoon into tonight, isolated to scattered showers with possibly a few thunderstorms will continue over northwest into north central North Dakota before diminishing towards evening. Otherwise, the main concern switches to smoke. Latest guidance brings the smoke into much of western and central North Dakota through this evening into the overnight hours, with the possible exception of the far southwest. On Saturday, the day starts out with areas of smoke lingering in the early morning, but expect this to gradually clear out from west to east with increasing westerly winds. Broad upper ridge over the western CONUS should keep conditions dry for us, with temperatures warming into the 80s. Dry conditions continue into Sunday as ridge remains the dominating feature in the area. Again, widespread 80s with possibly a few 90s in the southwest expected. Changes come Monday as ridge starts to break down and a variety of upper waves make their way towards the area. The first round of waves will pass over northern portions of the area during the day bringing chances for showers and storms, with temperatures cooling. Over the south, warm temperatures remain through the day. Changes come Monday night as the flow dips southward, resulting moderate chances (30-60 percent) for showers and thunderstorms. Latest CSU machine learning guidance keeps a modest severe threat over the south, but will see how this evolves over time. Chances for precipitation continue into Tuesday with notably cooler temperatures. Cooling trend continues into Wednesday with chances for precipitation continuing. Temperatures then may recover some to end the week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 617 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Scattered rain showers with a few thunderstorms remain possible over far northern North Dakota through early this evening, otherwise, quiet weather is expected. Areas of smoke are expected to return tonight to western and central North Dakota, before gradually clearing out from west to east on Saturday. This will result in areas of reduced visibility, possibly to MVFR/IFR levels. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...NH DISCUSSION...JJS AVIATION...NH