000
FXUS63 KBIS 101129
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
629 AM CDT MON MAR 10 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT MON MAR 10 2014

A BIG CLEAR AREA HAS FOUND ITSELF ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL SHORTLY FILL IN BY LATE
MORNING ACROSS THE WEST...THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WILL BE CLEAR.
ADJUSTED CLOUDS DOWN TO MINIMAL LEVELS AS A SUNRISE SHOULD BE
SEEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT MON MAR 10 2014

MAIN HIGHLIGHT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE TRANSITION FROM
RAIN TO SNOW TOWARDS MIDNIGHT TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND FAR
SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE FORECAST GREATEST
IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST AND IN FAR SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...WITH 1 TO
2 INCHES PROJECTED BY 12Z TUESDAY. NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MID LEVEL CLOUDS THICKENING UP
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN MONTANA. WATER VAPOR SHOWS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING ASHORE ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
WESTERN OREGON...SUPPORTING A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL
IDAHO THIS MORNING. THE LOW WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST AND DEEPEN LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT AS IT MOVES INTO WYOMING AND NEBRASKA MONDAY
NIGHT. SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL REMAIN ON THE
NORTHERN FRINGE OF STRONGEST VERTICAL MOTION AND MOISTURE FIELDS.
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE COLUMN WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RAIN
THROUGH MID EVENING...THEN TRANSITION TOWARD SNOW BY MIDNIGHT
(BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z)...AS THE SFC-850MB LAYER TEMPERATURE FALLS
BELOW 0C. QPF HEAVIEST IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST ENCOMPASSING
SLOPE/BOWMAN/ADAMS/HETTINGER COUNTIES WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL BY TUESDAY MORNING...QUICKLY TAPERING OFF TO MUCH LESSER
AMOUNTS FARTHER NORTH AND EAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT MON MAR 10 2014

THE MODELS DEPICT A GENERALLY PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE
EXTENDED AS A RATHER ENERGETIC EASTERN PACIFIC FLOW SENDS MULTIPLE
SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS PERIOD WILL ALSO BRING
A NEAR NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE PATTERN ALONG WITH
SOME SPOTTY PRECIPITATION. TUESDAY WILL HAVE SOME RESIDUAL
EFFECTS OF THE EXITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW TO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH RELATIVELY
COOLER TEMPERATURES. THEN A RETURN TO MILDER TEMPERATURES ARE IN
STORE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A RIDGE POPS UP BETWEEN
SHORTWAVES. THURSDAY LOOKS BREEZY AS A SHORTWAVE FLATTENS THE
RIDGE BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION THAT LOOKS TO BE
DRY. BUT THE MIXING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RETURN INTO THE
LOWER 50S ON THURSDAY...PROBABLY THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL SEE SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN AS
A MORE ROBUST SHORTWAVE CARVES OUT A CYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN ALOFT
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT MON MAR 10 2014

CIGS WILL LOWER AND THICKEN WITH -RA FORECAST AT KDIK BY 20Z MONDAY.
THE RAIN WILL MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW BY 03Z TUESDAY AT KDIK BUT
IS EXPECTED TO END BY 07Z TUESDAY. KBIS WILL BE ON THE FRINGE OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND HENCE A VCSH WAS ADDED TO THE TAFS MONDAY
EVENING. CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR UNTIL 06Z TUESDAY...THEREAFTER...MVFR
TO IFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE TERMINALS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...KS