Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 270332
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
932 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 929 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

CLOUD COVER AFFILIATED WITH MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES TO
SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST OVER THE NORTHERN 2/3 OF THE AREA. MAIN
CONCERN FOR UPDATE WAS TEMPERATURES IN THE CLEARING AHEAD OF THE
ADVANCING CLOUD COVER. MANY LOCATIONS OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
HAVE DROPPED TO NEAR ZERO...SO HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES TO MATCH
THIS TREND. TEMEPRATURES HAVE THEN BEEN CLIMBING AS THE CLOUD
COVER PUSHES OVER. SOME FLURRIES ALSO CONTINUE UNDER THE ADVANCING
CLOUDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT  616 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

AREA OF CLOUDS FROM BISMARCK TO JAMESTOWN AND SOUTH CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY DISSIPATE FROM THE NORTHWEST...THOUGH NEXT AREA OF CLOUDS
AFFILIATED WITH MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES TO SPREAD
THROUGH THE NORTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE
TRICKY TONIGHT WITH THE CLOUD COVER...THOUGH THINK CURRENT
FORECAST HAS A GOOD GRASP ON THIS WITH THE COLDEST TEMPS OVER THE
NORTHEAST BEFORE THE CLOUD COVER APPROACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING SOUTHEAST TONIGHT WILL BRING CLEARING
SKIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EAST. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS GENERALLY
SHOW TEMPERATURE PROFILES THAT ARE IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE IN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS HAS CREATED FLURRIES ACROSS THE AREA AS
COLD ADVECTION MAINTAINS A SATURATED LOW LEVEL. THE PROBLEM FOR
TONIGHT WILL BE OVERNIGHT LOWS IN WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED AND
FLURRIES WHERE CLOUDS REMAIN. A WEAK WARM ADVECTION FLOW WILL
BRING CLOUDS BACK ACROSS THE NORTH TONIGHT. HAVE ADDED FLURRIES
NORTHWEST AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL FOR THIS. AS CLOUDS
RETURN ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL LOW TEMPS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON THE
TIMING. LOWERED THE MINS TO ABOUT 8 BELOW THERE...BUT COULD FALL
FURTHER IF CLOUDS ARE DELAYED. ON SATURDAY...THE FOCUS FOR LIGHT
SNOW WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH CENTRAL WHERE THE BAROCLINC ZONE IS
SETTING UP AS THE MAIN ARCTIC AIR BEGINS TO ARRIVE. KEPT LOW POPS
AROUND 20 THERE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

THE BIGGEST ISSUE OF THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO BE THE VERY COLD AIR
ADVANCING INTO THE REGION. THE COLDEST STILL LOOKS TO BE MONDAY
NIGHT / TUESDAY MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS BELOW
ZERO...A FEW 20S BELOW OVER THE CANADIAN BORDER COUNTIES...WINDS
AROUND 10 MPH...AND APPARENT TEMPERATURES (WIND CHILLS) AS LOW AS
35 BELOW. THIS WOULD WARRANT A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR THAT TIME
PERIOD. CHILL ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED NORTH SUNDAY
NIGHT...ALL OF WEST / CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY NIGHT (COLDEST)...
AND EAST TUESDAY NIGHT. THE QUESTION ONCE IT IS ISSUED WILL BE
WHETHER OR NOT TO KEEP IT GOING THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. THOSE
DECISIONS WILL COME AS WE WORK INTO THE WEEKEND.

LONG RANGE MODELS AGREE ON A MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE ALEUTIAN
CHAIN INTO THE BERING SEA BY LATER SUNDAY...FORCING SHARP RIDGING UP
THE U.S. / CANADIAN WEST COAST AND INTO EASTERN ALASKA. THIS WORKS
WITH THE MID LEVEL VORTEX OVER ONTARIO TO ALLOW A STRAIGHT NORTH
FLOW INTO NORTH DAKOTA FROM THE ARCTIC. LATER IN THE LONG TERM THE
RIDGE FLOPS EAST AND ALLOWS WARM ADVECTION...FROM THE NORTHWEST.
WITH THE COLD AIR COMES VERY LIMITED MOISTURE SO NOTHING MORE THAN
FLURRIES FOR MOST AREAS...THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE SOUTHWEST
WHERE A NORTH-NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW MEANS UPSLOPE FLOW. THAT
WILL BE ABLE TO RING OUT A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE MISSOURI RIVER WITH A HALF INCH OF SNOW...TO AS MUCH AS AN
INCH AND A HALF SOUTH OF A LINE FROM BEACH THROUGH DICKINSON AND
ELGIN.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT WARM ADVECTION GETS UNDERWAY...FROM THE
NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES COULD REACH THEIR LOWS EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT
AND THEN RISE THROUGH THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY WEST. COUNTER TO THAT
WILL BE INCREASING WIND SPEEDS IN WARM ADVECTION THAT MAY COUNTER
THE RISING TEMPERATURES ENOUGH IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY TO
PRODUCE WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S BELOW.

TEMPERATURES WARM...RELATIVELY SPEAKING...WEDNESDAY AND NEW YEARS
DAY BEFORE THE NEXT COLD SHOT NEW YEARS DAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. LONG
RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT NEXT COLD BLAST BEING ASSOCIATED WITH
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER. DIFFERENCES...UNDERSTANDABLE 6 DAYS OUT...ARE
COMING IN THE PLACEMENT TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW WITH THE GFS MORE
FAVORABLE FOR THE ENTIRE AREA GETTING SOME MEASURABLE SNOW ON THE
ORDER OF AN INCH OR SO.

A FINAL NOTE ON THE COLD WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. BASED
ON THE SCENARIO THE MODELS ARE DEPICTING...THE FORECAST OF 15 TO
20 BELOW TUESDAY MORNING COULD BE LOWERED BY 10 DEGREES IF DEEP
SNOW COVER EXISTED OVER THE STATE AND UPSTREAM. ON THE OTHER
HAND...CONSIDER THE PAST FEW DAYS HAVING BEEN HARD TO SCOUR OUT
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE / LOW CLOUDS. IF THIS OCCURS AGAIN EARLY
NEXT WEEK THE FORECAST OF 15 TO 20 BELOW COULD BE A LITTLE TOO
LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 616 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR OVER MOST LOCATIONS BY
SATURDAY MORNING. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE NEAR KJMS WHERE MVFR CIGS
MAY LINGER INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...JPM
AVIATION...JJS






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