000
FXUS63 KBIS 141815
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
115 PM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

AT 1 PM CDT...A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO WEST CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA....BETWEEN NEW SALEM AND BISMARCK. MAIN CONCERN FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WILL BE ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL...AND THE NORTHWEST WHERE A CLUSTER
OF NON SEVERE STORMS WAS MOVING OUT OF NORTHEAST MONTANA AND
IF THEY CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA. CLOUDS BEGINNING TO MIX OUT WEST...AND INCREASING
CENTRAL AND EAST AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES BEING MET THERE.
REFINED THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHWEST
AND EAST CENTRAL FRO THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES AND WINDS LOOK
GOD SO FAR TODAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1008 AM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

RADAR TRENDS SHOW THE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL AND EAST THIS MORNING. SATELLITE LOOPS ALSO INDICATE SOME
CLEARING IN SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL. FEEL THERE MAY BE CLOUDS
FILING IN IN THE CLEAR AREAS AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE MET
LATE MORNING SO ADDED MORE CLOUDS WEST AND SOUTHWEST THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. MAIN FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO BE THE NORTH
CENTRAL AND EAST FRO THIS AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 757 AM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

AREAS OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ROAMING THROUGH
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. WITH TIME...THE BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND EAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 653 AM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

LOW PRESSURE SITUATED OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND CONVECTION
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL MOVE EAST DURING THE
DAY TODAY. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TRANSLATING EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL. MADE A FEW
ADJUSTMENTS TO BUMP UP POPS OVER THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL
THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANCES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE/TIMING AND CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL. WV IMAGERY SHOWED TROUGH AXIS OVER INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST
AND RIDGE AXIS ENTERING MINNESOTA...LEAVING NORTHERN PLAINS IN
SOUTHWEST DIFLUENT FLOW. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED ELONGATED LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED IN VICINITY OF MT/SD/ND BORDER. AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING THROUGH EAST CENTRAL MONTANA AND ABOUT TO
ENTER NORTH DAKOTA AS OF 0830Z. 00Z NAM INITIALIZED THIS FAIRLY
WELL...MOVING IT NORTHEAST AND ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST CWA. THIS
AREA HAS HIGHEST POPS FOR THE EARLY MORNING AREAS. NAM ALSO PICKED
UP ANOTHER AREA OF ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR RAPID
CITY THAT IT BRINGS INTO SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ND. THIS
SECOND AREA HAS REMAINED SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED AND MAY NOT IMPACT
SOUTH CENTRAL ND.

WITH REGARD TO CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ON FRIDAY...DESPITE SURFACE
BASED CAPE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL
BE ACROSS CENTRAL ND BY 18Z...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
SUBSTANTIAL WARM LAYER/CAP ALOFT THAT SHOULD SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL. SPC HAS ALSO REMOVED SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE AREA FROM
MOST OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. CONSEQUENTLY...MENTION OF THUNDER
HAS BEEN LESSENED IN THE FORECAST AND SEVERE WORDING REMOVED. AS
FRONT PROGRESSES EASTWARD WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND BECOME
GUSTY AT TIMES BEHIND THE FRONT. PRECIP SHOULD CLEAR EASTERN ZONES
BY EARLY EVENING WITH CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY.
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED OVER CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN AND COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL MN
BY 12Z SAT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

A DRY AND BREEZY DAY IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
THAT LIFTED THROUGH MONTANA IS SITUATED OVER SASKATCHEWAN. ALTHOUGH
THE SURFACE GRADIENT IS NOT STRONG...WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD WARM SUFFICIENTLY THAT WINDS AROUND 750-800MB
WILL BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST
ACROSS THE NORTH WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS DIMINISHING
TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS ACROSS THE SOUTH.

THE UPPER LOW THEN DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THIRD OF THE
CWA ON SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR ENOUGH COOLING ALOFT TO DEVELOP
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON MONDAY AHEAD
OF ANOTHER UPPER LOW OFF THE NORTHWEST U.S. COAST. MODELS DEPICT A
SHORTWAVE SLIDING DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE...ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED BUT WITH DAYTIME HEATING A FEW
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGING BUILDS EASTWARD INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH SHOULD KEEP A THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO A MINIMUM.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY
EAST AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE LOW ALLOWING
SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE STILL OVER THE DAKOTAS...THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY WILL BE
LIMITED...BUT WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND RISING DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES...DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...AS THE RIDGE AXIS FINALLY MAKES ITS
WAY EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
INCREASE AS A MORE FAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT SHIFTS INTO THE
DAKOTAS.

TEMPERATURES REMAIN SEASONABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MAINLY 70S
FOR HIGHS AND 50S FOR LOWS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WE DO WARM UP A
BIT LATER IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH HIGHS APPROACHING THE LOWER
80S AND MORNING LOWS AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

MAIN HAZARD TO AVIATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHWEST
AND EAST CENTRAL THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THE THREAT IS LOW ENOUGH
THAT IT REMAINS TOO UNCERTAIN TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS...BUT
GEOGRAPHICALLY...WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND EAST
CENTRAL. DRYER AND MORE STABLE AIR SOUTHWEST WILL REMOVE A
SIZABLE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE SOUTHWEST FROM THE
THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JNS
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...WAA