Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 301805
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
105 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 103 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

CURRENT TRENDS LOOK GOOD. WINDS NOT SIGNIFICANT ALTHOUGH STARTING
TO GUST A BIT AT MINOT AND JAMESTOWN.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 947 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

SMALL PATCH OF CLOUDS TRACKING SOUTHEAST THROUGH JAMES RIVER
VALLEY NEARLY OUT OF THE AREA. WILL CLEAN UP THE CLOUDS AND GO
MOSTLY SUNNY. OTHERWISE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 609 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

COMPACT AREA OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST THAT THESE DETERIORATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FOR
MORNING UPDATE HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO THE CURRENT TIMING OF THE
SYSTEM...REMOVING BY MID MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLICING
THROUGH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN...WITH THREE DISTINCT VORTICITY
CENTERS MOVING INTO THE TROUGH. OUR CONCERN IS THE VORTICITY LOBE
IN SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN MOVING SOUTHEAST WITH TIME. THIS IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN 80KT/300MB JET WAS
AIDING IN LARGE SCALE ASCENT...GENERATING AN AREA OF SHOWERS PER
STANLEY RADAR...FROM SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN/ESTEVAN INTO FAR
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AT THIS MOMENT. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST...WEAKENING
AS THEY MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY THROUGH 14Z.
USED A BLEND OF THE LATEST HRRR/RAP13 FOR POP LOCATION/TRENDS.
SHOWERS SHOULD DWINDLE IN AREAL COVERAGE BETWEEN 12Z AND 14Z...AS
FORCING ALOFT SHIFTS FURTHER EAST. FURTHER UPSTREAM...A SURFACE
COLD FRONT WAS REFLECTED OVER FAR SOUTH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN. THIS
FRONT WILL SLIDE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY TODAY...CROSSING
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA BETWEEN 12-15Z...AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
BETWEEN 18Z-21Z. MAIN EFFECT WILL BE A WIND SHIFT FROM THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST WITH WIND SPEEDS RANGING BETWEEN 15KT AND 25KT. SKY
CONDITION IN THE NORTH WILL RETURN TO A MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITION BY
MID MORNING. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS
TODAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S
NORTH TO UPPER 80S SOUTH. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL KEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED. ALTHOUGH MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...A FEW SUBTLE WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE MAY BRING AN
OCCASIONAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE. TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...PATTERN
BECOMES SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE WITH A VARIETY OF WEAK DISTURBANCES
MOVING THROUGH...BRINGING ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 103 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE REGION. VFR THROUGH THE 18Z FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...WAA


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