652
FXUS63 KBIS 120503
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1203 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Areas of smoke return to much of the area this evening, and
 will gradually depart west to east Saturday.

-Dry with a warming trend through the weekend.

-Medium chances (30 to 60 percent) for showers and thunderstorms
 return to the forecast Monday night.

-Notably cooler mid-week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1148 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Other than some reduced visibilities due to smoke, quiet
weather is expected through the overnight hours. No changes to
the going forecast.

UPDATE
Issued at 949 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

There are no weather updates with this recent product issuance.

Smoke continues to filter south-southeast across the region.
Will increase the aerial coverage and messaging in the
forecast.

UPDATE
Issued at 617 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Main edit to the forecast was to refine POPs a bit, removing
southeast where nothing is occurring, and tweaking north
central/northeast where isolated convection continues near the
upper low.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 244 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Current surface analysis places trough from western Ontario into
the upper midwest and central plains, while high remains over
central into eastern Montana. Upper level analysis places low
along the southern Manitoba/Saskatchewan border with cyclonic
flow stretching into our area. This is resulting in some
isolated to scattered rain showers, mainly along our northern
tier. Otherwise, smoke is starting to make its way into
northwest North Dakota again as seen on latest satellite
depiction, and noted on upstream observations.

For the rest of this afternoon into tonight, isolated to
scattered showers with possibly a few thunderstorms will
continue over northwest into north central North Dakota before
diminishing towards evening. Otherwise, the main concern
switches to smoke. Latest guidance brings the smoke into much of
western and central North Dakota through this evening into the
overnight hours, with the possible exception of the far
southwest.

On Saturday, the day starts out with areas of smoke lingering in
the early morning, but expect this to gradually clear out from
west to east with increasing westerly winds. Broad upper ridge
over the western CONUS should keep conditions dry for us, with
temperatures warming into the 80s. Dry conditions continue into
Sunday as ridge remains the dominating feature in the area.
Again, widespread 80s with possibly a few 90s in the southwest
expected.

Changes come Monday as ridge starts to break down and a variety
of upper waves make their way towards the area. The first round
of waves will pass over northern portions of the area during the
day bringing chances for showers and storms, with temperatures
cooling. Over the south, warm temperatures remain through the
day. Changes come Monday night as the flow dips southward,
resulting moderate chances (30-60 percent) for showers and
thunderstorms. Latest CSU machine learning guidance keeps a
modest severe threat over the south, but will see how this
evolves over time. Chances for precipitation continue into
Tuesday with notably cooler temperatures. Cooling trend
continues into Wednesday with chances for precipitation
continuing. Temperatures then may recover some to end the week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1148 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Areas of smoke have returned tonight to western and central
North Dakota. Visibilities are currently in the 2-4SM range over
western and north central ND, with no current reductions south
central into the JRV. This will change as smoke spreads into
central ND overnight. Smoke is expected to exit from west to
east during the day. At this time will drop vsbys in smoke down
to MVFR category. Light northwest to west surface flow overnight
then mostly southwest to west on Saturday.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
DISCUSSION...JJS
AVIATION...TWH