Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 020838
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
338 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE WILL BRING COOLER
CONDITIONS THAN YESTERDAY.

EARLY THIS SUNDAY MORNING A WEST-TO-EAST COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM
BETWEEN GRAND FORKS AND FARGO...TO NEAR BISMARCK...TO SOUTH OF
DICKINSON. THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTH INTO SOUTH DAKOTA
BY/AROUND SUNRISE. NORTH WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WILL USHER IN COOLER
AIR...AND LOWERED MAX TEMPS A BIT...WITH EXPECTED HIGH TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE MID 70S IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID TO UPPER
80S IN THE SOUTHWEST.

COOL HIGH PRESSURE AXIS WILL BE IN PLACE BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LOWS FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES INTO MONDAY WITH NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL
FLOW OVER THE REGION. CHANGES COME TO THE REGION ON TUESDAY AS AN
UNSETTLED PATTERN DEVELOPS AND A POTENT SHORT WAVE LIFTS THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY SPREADING
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. FOR THE MIDDLE INTO THE END OF THE
WEEK...UPPER LOW OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA WORKS OVER THE ROCKIES AND
THROUGH THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES. THIS WILL BRING A VARIETY OF SHORT
WAVES ACROSS THE AREA KEEPING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS GOING
THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1221 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  AT 05Z A COLD
FRONT EXTENDED FROM BETWEEN KDIK/KISN TO BETWEEN KMOT/KN60 TO NEAR
GRAND FORKS. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH EARLY THIS
MORNING...REACHING THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER BY/BEFORE SUNRISE.
NORTHERLY WINDS 10-15 KNOTS ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD LOWER TO
BELOW 10 KNOTS WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT EXTENDED FROM LAKE SUPERIOR ACROSS
NORTHERN MINNESOTA AS FAR WEST AS BOTTINEAU. EXPECT THESE CONVECTIVE
CELLS TO REMAIN EAST OF MINOT. WILL NOT MENTION IN KJMS JUST YET AS
EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE EAST OF KJMS AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH.

AFTER 15Z/16Z NORTH WINDS SHOULD INCREASE AS SURFACE WINDS LINK TO
THE MIXING WINDS ALOFT.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...JV


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