000
FXUS63 KBIS 260645
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1245 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 1245 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

WAA ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE REPLACED WITH WEAK CAA FOR THE REST OF
THE MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHEAST INTO MINNESOTA. AREA
OF LIGHT RAIN/FREEZING RAIN WILL PUSH OUT OF THE SOUTHERN JAMES
RIVER VALLEY BY 09Z. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE ON THE INCREASE AS
GRADIENT FORCING INCREASES ACROSS THE STATE. WINDS WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE LATER THIS MORNING WEST TO EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
STEADY OR RISING IN THE 30S FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT.

UPPED SKY COVER A BIT WITH SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS ALOFT AND
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO STREAM IN FROM THE NORTH.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 924 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

ENDED THE POPS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST HRRR RUNS. LEFT
THE FORECAST DRY FOR TONIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 648 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

BASED ON CANADIAN AND US RADARS AND LATEST HRRR MODEL WILL TRIM
POPS AFTER 06Z TONIGHT AS HRRR MODEL TAKES THE LIGHT PRECIP EAST OF
THE CWA. BOOSTED WINDS ABOUT 20 TO 30 MPH ACROSS PARTS OF THE
NORTH AND EAST TONIGHT WITH STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS
JET MAX ALOFT MOVES THOUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST WEST MONDAY...

A WARM FRONT IS CURRENTLY ENTERING THE MT/ND BORDER. THIS FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN TO DEVELOP
ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN REGION INTO THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING. IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL...BUT
NOT ZERO. THEREFORE...WILL LEAVE THE WINTRY MIX IMPACTS MENTION IN
THE HWO FOR THIS UPDATE.

AS WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD EITHER REMAIN STEADY OR
SLOWLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT. ABOVE NORMAL LOWS ARE EXPECTED.

DRY/WARM AIR IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION
MONDAY. SOME MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS WILL BE IN JEOPARDY OF
BEING BROKEN...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE FOLLOWING
TABLE IS A RUN DOWN OF THE FORECAST HIGHS AND ASSOCIATED RECORD
HIGHS FOR SELECTED SITES ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

LOCATION          MON HI TEMP  MON HI TEMP
                  FORECAST     RECORD

DICKINSON         53           49 IN 1931
WILLISTON         47           47 IN 2006
BISMARCK          48           52 IN 1942
MINOT             44           58 IN 1906
JAMESTOWN         42           52 IN 1990

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CENTER ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION KICKING IN AHEAD
OF A SURFACE LOW. THIS COMBINED WITH WEST...DOWNSLOPING WINDS...MINIMAL
OR NONEXISTENT SNOWPACK AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.

THE 12 UTC ECMWF HAS 13-14 DEGREES CELSIUS AT 850MB WHILE THE GFS
AND NAM SHOW CLOSER TO 11-12. IF THESE TEMPERATURES CAN MIX DOWN
TO THE SURFACE IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO
THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. IT ISN`T COMPLETELY OUT OF THE
REALM OF POSSIBILITY THAT A FEW AREAS REACH 60.

LATER THIS WEEK WE WILL LIKELY TRANSITION INTO NORTHWEST FLOW WITH
A TROUGH SPILLING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HOWEVER...LATEST
MODELS TEND TO KEEP THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH A LITTLE FURTHER EAST.
THIS WOULD MEAN TEMPERATURES ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA MAY NOT COOL DOWN AS MUCH AS INITIALLY THOUGHT EARLIER.
BUT...THIS IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY AND A LOT CAN CHANGE BETWEEN
NOW AND THEN. IT DOES APPEAR WE WILL TRANSITION INTO A MORE ACTIVE
PATTERN WITH SEVERAL CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE LATER
THIS WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 1245 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD WITH A SCT-BKN MID LEVEL
CLOUD DECK. A STEADY NORTHWEST WIND OF 15 TO NEAR 30 KTS FORECAST
THROUGH THE MORNING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...NH