Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 180555

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1155 PM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

Issued at 1154 PM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

Latest suite of satellite imagery shows a transition from westerly
to southwesterly flow aloft into North Dakota tonight. Sky conditions
were generally clear with a few mid and high clouds scooting through.
Previous forecast on track with a mid/upper level shortwave now
ejecting through southwest Wyoming and eastern Idaho, will result
in increasing clouds early Saturday as a mid level cloud deck
pushes from southwest to northeast across the area.

UPDATE Issued at 921 PM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

Forecast trending ok with west winds 5 to 15 mph holding
temperatures up so far this evening. Just updated the current
conditions. As winds diminish late tonight expect temperatures to
fall more rapidly so did not adjust lows upward at this time.

UPDATE Issued at 627 PM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

Current forecast trending ok. West winds a little gusty north this
evening but this will diminish now that the sun has set. Will only
update the current conditions.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 229 PM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

Mild and dry continues for the short term.

A slightly cooler day is expected Saturday as cold air advection
moves in briefly later tonight behind a departing wave. Winds will
also shift from the favored westerly direction to a slightly
cooler and more moist easterly direction. Overall this should do
little more than bring increased cloud cover and slightly cooler
temperatures to the region Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 229 PM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

The long term still appears mild. There are a few decent chances
for precipitation.

The first good chance arrives Sunday night into Monday. Some light
freezing rain is possible across northern North Dakota early
Monday morning with temperatures right near or slightly below
freezing. The rest of North Dakota looks to see rain beginning
Sunday night into Monday. This will be a quick moving system, so
only minor precipitation amounts are expected.

Another fast moving may move across northern North Dakota
Wednesday. This could bring some light rain/snow to far northern

Models continue to indicate a much more substantial storm by the
end of the week. The latest runs indicate a more southward trend
and keep most of North Dakota dry, but this far out a lot can


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1154 PM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

Vfr cigs/vsbys until late in the period. Expect a mid level
bkn/ovc cloud deck (approximately 10kft AGL) affecting the
terminals during the daytime Saturday. Otherwise dry with light
winds becoming east to southeast Saturday afternoon through
evening. There are hints that low clouds with possible mvfr/ifr
cigs could evolve at KDIK/KISN/KMOT near the end of the taf
period and beyond into Sunday morning.




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