Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 240857

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
357 AM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 308 AM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017

Overnight lows and minimal precipitation chances early this
morning and again late tonight highlight the short term.

Currently, upper level low is dropping southeast through eastern
ND. Forcing from the low is producing an area of showers extending
back into central ND. Mesoscale models have been having a hard
time picking up on the western extent of the precipitation this
morning, so have penciled in some pops early this morning sliding
southeast through south central ND. We managed to measure a
hundredth at the office with these showers, and don`t expect much
more as they track across the southern James River Valley through
12-13 UTC.

During the day today expect breezy conditions with more clouds
central and scattered showers over eastern portions of central ND.
More sun is expected across the west. It will be another cool day
with highs ranging from the mid 50s in the Turtle Mountains to the
upper 60s southwest.

Tonight will be another cool night with high pressure building
over the state behind the exiting upper low. Lowered minimum
temperatures tonight below given guidance given the expected light
winds and dry atmosphere. Would have lowered even more but both
the NAM/GFS indicate a low-mid level feature dropping southeast
late tonight into early Sunday morning in cyclonic flow aloft. A
blend of short range models does produce an area of slight chance
pops spreading northwest to southeast across the forecast area.
Any precipitation amounts will be minimal and the increasing
clouds, wherever they end up, should keep us from seeing any
frost. Later shifts will likely have to refine move through the

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 308 AM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017

Warm temperatures and Thunderstorms early in the extended period,
then back to cool and mainly dry conditions mid to late week.

Upper level low pressure currently over the northern Pacific/Gulf
of Alaska will move onto the British Columbia coast late in the
weekend and then into the central Canadian prairie provinces by
Tuesday and Wednesday, before dropping into the northern Great
Lakes region by late next week.

Upper level ridging ahead of the low will work into the northern
plains late Monday and Tuesday. After cooler than average
temperatures over the weekend we are expected to warm up into the
70s east to 80s west on Monday. Significantly warmer temperatures
spread into western ND Tuesday ahead of a surface cold front
associated with the aforementioned upper low. GEFS mean surface
temperatures are in the mid 90s across southwest and south central
ND with 85H temperatures around 25-27 degrees celsius. We raised
temperatures on Tuesday over given guidance considering the strong
thermal ridging over the area.

Thunderstorms will be a possibility on Tuesday given the strong
surface heating during the day and the approaching cold front
Tuesday evening. Currently it looks like most of the area will be
capped through the day Tuesday with the possible exception of the
far north. This would be the favored area for afternoon
convection. Better chances of showers and thunderstorms will exist
Tuesday night as the cold front and upper level trough move
through the area. Will need to monitor over the coming days for
the potential for severe weather Tuesday evening.

Once this wave traverses the area, most of western and central ND
will be in the dry sector of the upper low that slowly drops from
central Canada, into the northern Great Lakes region. Diurnally
driven scattered showers will be a possibility mid to late week
but no big storm systems are indicated after the Tuesday system.
Temperatures will also trend cooler with highs in the 60s and 70s
next Thursday through Saturday.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 308 AM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017

A band of light rainshowers will quickly push across KMOT through
07z Saturday, and then proceed into KJMS between 09z-12z Saturday. A
tempo group was used at both locations, as areal coverage looks to
impact terminals much less than half the time. Mvfr cigs will
develop at KMOT/KJMS between 12z and 14z Saturday, and continue at
KMOT until 18z, and through most of the day at KJMS. Although, there
will be brief periods when cigs will rise just above mvfr at KJMS.
Vfr cigs/vsbys at all other terminals. Gusty northwest winds between
18kt and 28kt can be expected through sunset Saturday.




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