Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 020545
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1245 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH THE LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY DEPICTING A 100KT JET STREAK DIVING SOUTH ON THE BACK
SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MANITOBA.
CANADIAN/LOCAL MINOT RADAR SHOWING RAIN SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN
MANITOBA...BEGINNING TO IMPINGE INTO FAR NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA.
THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET STREAK WILL PROVIDE THE
LARGE SCALE ASCENT FOR CONTINUED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...AND
A POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW
SHOWERS WORKING INTO MINOT BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z...THEN INTO
BISMARCK 12Z-16Z MONDAY. CONCUR WITH THIS TIMING BASED ON THE
ABOVE.

FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON...COLD POCKET ALOFT (-24C) ASSOCIATED WITH
THE H7-H5 CLOSED LOW SETS UP OVER THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK WILL BE ALIGNED ATOP OF THE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND STRONG 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 55KT-65KT BETWEEN 18Z-00Z OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. BISMARCK BUFKIT SOUNDING SHOW THE
EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL AROUND 18KFT MONDAY AFTERNOON...THUS LOW TOP
CONVECTION WITH POSSIBLE SUPERCELLULAR CHARACTERISTICS. WILL
ADDRESS THIS FURTHER IN THE NEXT DISCUSSION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 944 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

ADDED A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
CENTRAL FOR SCATTERED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A VORT
LOBE THAT WILL PROPAGATE SOUTH OUT OF MANITOBA. THE 00-01 UTC HRRR
ITERATIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW A MODEST SIGNAL IN THEIR FLASH DENSITY
FIELDS OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS IS SUPPORTED ON A
LARGER SCALE WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COLD POCKET ALOFT WITH THE VORT LOBE. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 653 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS
THROUGH 23 UTC...AND A TIME LAGGED ENSEMBLE OF THE 20-22 UTC HIGH
RESOLUTION SUITES DEPICTING SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE VORT LOBE CLEARLY
EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER LAKE WINNIPEG EARLY THIS
EVENING THAT WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE SMALL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF THUNDER IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE.

CURRENTLY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES EXTENDED WELL
NORTH INTO NORTHERN ALBERTA/BRITISH COLUMBIA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON
THE EAST SIDE OF THIS ELONGATED RIDGE WAS OVER CENTRAL
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA. MEANWHILE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH WAS
MOVING INTO HUDSON BAY FROM THE NORTH. AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE COOL
AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM EXTENDED ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA AND
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

THE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING FROM NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
WILL DROP SOUTH BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS AND A SMALL CHANCE OF
SHOWERS INTO THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT...AND IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON
MONDAY. WEAK CAPE BUT STRONG BULK SHEAR ACCOMPANY THE SHORTWAVE.
HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME TALL SKINNY AND WEAK
CAPE...MAINLY IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE.
TIMING INDICATES THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER WOULD BE IN THE LATE
MORNING...AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...WHEN THE BEST UPPER LEVEL
FORCING IS IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA AREAS. EXPECT MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND UNDER A
TENTH OF AN INCH FOR ANY AREA RIGHT BENEATH ANY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSHOWER.

AS THE CURRENT COOL HIGH PRESSURE EXITS TO OUR SOUTH
TONIGHT...WARMER AIR UP TO H850 WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO
THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S ON MONDAY DESPITE INCREASED CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

OVERALL...DRY AND SEASONABLE TO MILD THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING
WORK WEEK...WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
WEEKEND.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTH ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
HUDSON BAY LOW/TROUGH INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES AREA
ON WEDNESDAY. COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL
AFFECT THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH DAKOTA...AND EXPECTING HIGHS
WEDNESDAY TO RANGE FROM THE MID 60S IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS/JAMES
VALLEY TO THE MID 70S IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

BY THURSDAY THE WESTERN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EAST INTO THE
WESTERN PLAINS BRINGING A VERY WARM THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

BY FRIDAY A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES...ALONG WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH CUTTING OFF OVER
CALIFORNIA/4-CORNERS BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE THAT WILL
HAVE ADVANCED INTO THE PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND
POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE...-SHRA ARE FORECAST AT KMOT BETWEEN
08Z-12Z MONDAY....AND AT KBIS BETWEEN 12Z-16Z MONDAY WITH BKN
CIGS/5000FT-8000FT. A VCTS WAS MENTIONED AT KDIK FROM 16Z-21Z
MONDAY...AND AT KBIS FROM 18Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. EXPECT A
CLEAR SKY AT ALL TERMINALS AFTER 03Z TUESDAY. WINDS AROUND 10KT
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KDIK WHERE GUSTS TO 20KT CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...KS



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