Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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347
FXUS63 KBIS 160026
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
626 PM CST Thu Feb 15 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 619 PM CST Thu Feb 15 2018

Except for a stray flake or two lingering over the southern James
River Valley, light snow has ended across the forecast area. For
the rest of the night expect clearing skies, diminishing winds and
falling temperatures. Evening temperatures trend look reasonable
with a little slower drop than usual with the current winds but
will see how things go later this evening as winds do begin to
subside. Otherwise no changes from the going forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 241 PM CST Thu Feb 15 2018

Current surface analysis places low to the south of James Bay
with front sweeping towards the central plains. High pressure
continues to settle into the northern plains behind the front.
Upper level analysis places trough stretching from Hudson Bay
sweeping through the northern plains and on into the Great Basin.
Snow over the area is gradually tapering off as the trough works
its way through, with some light activity remaining over southern
portions of the area.

For the rest of this afternoon into tonight, cold high pressure
continues to settle into the area with snow coming to an end
through the afternoon. Overnight lows below zero expected across
the area with the coldest temperatures expected over far north
central into northeast North Dakota. Frigid wind chills expected
over this area so have gone ahead and issued a wind chill advisory
for Rolette and Pierce Counties.

On Friday, high settles off to the southeast with winds turning
southwest and increasing over the area. This will bring warmer
temperatures with readings close to normal. A weak wave zips
through the area which may bring some light snow mainly to
southwestern areas late Friday afternoon into Friday evening.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 241 PM CST Thu Feb 15 2018

A more potent shortwave moves into the Pacific Northwest on
Saturday, and moves across the Rockies and Dakotas Saturday night
and Sunday before exiting to Minnesota. In response, a surface low
develops over Wyoming/Colorado/South Dakota, and sets up an area of
precipitation in the form of light snow across Montana/North Dakota
Saturday night...and North Dakota and Minnesota on Sunday. As of
now, the global model consensus favors southern and central
portions of North Dakota for the main band of precipitation and
have been gradually increasing some on snow amounts. Will have to
keep an eye on if this trend continues.

Frigid airmass then settles into the area for the start of the
upcoming week and sticks around going into mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 619 PM CST Thu Feb 15 2018

MVFR cigs and vsbys have exited KJMS. VFR conditions are expected
at all TAF sites through the forecast period. West to northwest
flow this evening will diminish and shift more southwest to west
on Friday.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Chill Advisory until 9 AM CST Friday for NDZ005-013.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...TWH



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