Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 142359
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
659 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near-critical fire weather conditions southwest Friday
  afternoon.

- Well above average temperatures return Friday, with a cooldown
  for the weekend.

- Windy Friday and Saturday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 659 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

Surface high pressure is centered over southeast Montana, and is
slowly pushing into western North Dakota. The majority of the
forecast area is still socked in with low stratus, with the
exception of the far northeast where the edge of the cloud deck
has been slowly diminishing. We are starting to see a few
pockets of lower visibility in central North Dakota, so will
have to see if this trend continues and becomes more widespread.
No major changes with this update.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 224 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

Low level stratus persists over the entire forecast area.
Clouds will clear out later this afternoon through tonight from
west to east as surface high pressure propagates into the state.
Clear skies and light winds tonight may lead to additional
patchy fog development early Friday morning. However, confidence
is low due to winds with a westerly component that will likely
remain around 5 to 10 mph, with strong winds just off the
surface. Thus even if fog develops, it should help prevent or
limit any dense fog development.

High pressure will dip south through the day Friday as a clipper
system dives southeast from central Canada, down to the northern
Great Lakes region, and to southeastern Canada. This will bring a
fairly strong cold frontal boundary through the forecast
area starting later in the day. The best pressure rises and CAA
are more during the overnight hours Friday night which may limit
winds from maxing out during the day. Near advisory to advisory
level winds are possible Friday afternoon and especially Friday
night. However, confidence isn`t high enough for headlines at
this time. This frontal boundary will lead to a cooldown through
the weekend. For Sunday, near average to slightly below average
highs are possible.

Other than gusty winds, expecting conditions to dry out and
relative humidity values to tank Friday afternoon in the south.
With gusty winds, this may lead to near-critical fire weather
conditions in the southwest during the afternoon. Saturated
near-surface soils that are still frozen or barely thawed,
resulting in standing water in some locations, will help limit
the threat for most areas further east and north.

A west CONUS ridge looks to develop Sunday and gradually try to
slide eastward through Tuesday. This looks to put the forecast
area on the warm side of the ridge Monday. Associated surface
warm frontal boundary will help boost temperatures back into the
50s to mid 60s for most of the forecast area. Ensemble guidance
then suggests a cooling trend is favored through at least the
middle of the week. No significant precipitation is favored at
this time, although a more active pattern may return towards
the latter half of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 659 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

Generally MVFR ceilings in a stratus deck across most of western
and central North Dakota, with the exception of the northwest
corner including KXWA. Skies will be slowly clearing from west
to east through the night tonight, with all terminals expected
to be at VFR by around 12Z. Winds under 10 knots will shift to
west-southwesterly during the day Friday, sustained around 20
knots with gusts up to 35 knots.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Jones
DISCUSSION...Telken
AVIATION...Jones


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