Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KBIS 080818
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
318 AM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER THE FRONT RANGE WITH LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL KEEP NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. MEANWHILE WE ARE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL HUDSON BAY LOW...THUS WE WILL STILL BE PLAGUED WITH
CYCLONIC COOL FLOW ALOFT OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WHICH SHOULD
SUPPORT WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. KEPT A SLIGHT
CHANCE MENTION FOR CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

HIGHS TODAY IN THE 70S. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION AND LIGHT WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014

ON WEDNESDAY...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE
EARLY EVENING AS UPPER RIDGE PASSES OVER THE AREA. LATER IN THE
EVENING...SOME PRECIP MAY DEVELOP OVER FAR SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
AS LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS.

FOR THURSDAY...COMPACT SHORT WAVE PUSHES INTO THE AREA WHILE COLD
FRONT OVER MONTANA WORKS ITS WAY INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TOWARDS
LATE AFTERNOON...AND SLOWLY THROUGH THE AREA IN THE EVENING/NIGHT.
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY DEVELOPS IN THE AFTERNOON (CAPE 1000-2000
J/KG) WITH AMPLE SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS...BUT WHETHER THE FORCING CAN
OVERCOME THE CAP IN PLACE IS THE QUESTION. CAN NOT RULE OUT A
DISCRETE AFTERNOON STORM OR TWO FROM DEVELOPING. BETTER CHANCES COME
IN THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSING THROUGH.

A MODESTLY UNSETTLED PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS A VARIETY OF WEAK DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO
MOVE THROUGH WRN CONUS RIDGE...KEEPING OCCASIONAL LOW CHANCES FOR
PRECIP IN THE FORECAST. MODELS SUGGESTING STRONG LOW DROPPING FROM
WRN HUDSON BAY TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
COLD AIR WRAPPING AROUND ITS BACK-SIDE. DEPENDING ON IF THIS
DEVELOPS...AND IF IT DOES HOW FAR WEST IT PUSHES...TEMPERATURES
COULD BE QUITE CHILLY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1244 AM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD. MOSTLY CLEAR THIS MORNING
WITH SOME SCATTERED MID CLOUDS MOVING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA MAY BRING
SOME BKN CIGS AT KMOT BEFORE SUNRISE. DAYTIME SCATTERED CUMULUS
EXPECTED...THEN CLEARING AFT 00Z.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...JV






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.