Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 250223
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
923 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 921 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

QUIET NIGHT WITH JUST A LITTLE CIRRUS PASSING THROUGH FRO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. JUST UPDATED THE CURRENT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 559 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AT 5 PM CDT WILL
DRIFT EAST TONIGHT. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. TEMPERATURES
WILL NOT BE AS COLD TONIGHT WITH LOWS 40 TO 50. JUST UPDATED
CURRENT CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL BRING A
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.

CURRENTLY...THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM
MANITOBA THROUGH THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. LIGHT WINDS OVER CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AT 5
TO 15 MPH.

THE SURFACE HIGH AXIS SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING EAST TONIGHT...REACHING
THE RED RIVER VALLEY BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. WARM ADVECTION TAKING
PLACE AT H850 IN THE WEST TONIGHT...REACHING INTO CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. THIS WARM ADVECTION ALONG WITH SURFACE SOUTHEAST WINDS
CONTINUING OVERNIGHT IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA SHOULD ALLOW ENOUGH
MIXING IN THE SURFACE LAYER FOR TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S...WITH A FEW LOCALES DIPPING INTO THE MID 40S. IN
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW
RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.

WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES TUESDAY AS THE WESTERN RIDGE BUILDS AND
WITH SURFACE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WEST...AND 5 TO 15 MPH IN CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. LOOK FOR A WARMER DAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S FROM
THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO JAMES VALLEY...TO MID 80S IN THE FAR WEST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND
INCREASING TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 90S ACROSS WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA.

THE MODELS INDICATE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
UPPER RIDGE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING
A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS. THE GFS INDICATES SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF NORTH DAKOTA...WHILE THE ECMWF
INDICATES MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE CONFINED TO SOUTHERN
NORTH DAKOTA.

THE RIDGE LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AND INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. DAILY CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND TEMPERATURES
IN THE 80S AND 90S WILL BE COMMON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 559 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AT THE BEGINNING
OF THE 00Z TAF PERIOD IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SLOWLY EAST TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY. VFR AT ALL TAF SITES.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...WAA


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