Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 270253
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
953 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 952 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT REMAINS ON TRACK...AND
WAS BLENDED TO THE OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 02 UTC AS ANOMALOUSLY
DEEP LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE INTO MINNESOTA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 703 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

THE DIURNAL DOWNTREND IN WINDS AND CONVECTION IS SLOWLY BEGINNING
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. NO CHANGES REQUIRED WITH
THE ONGOING FORECAST OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW NEAR SOUTHERN LAKE WINNIPEG
WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING SOUTHWARD INTO WRN MINNESOTA
BRINGING GUSTY WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TO MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH COMPACT LOW OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA.
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE
LOW...MAINLY INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

FOR TONIGHT...LOW WILL SHIFT TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST PUSHING INTO
NRN MINNESOTA THIS EVENING. SHOWERS WILL AND WIND WILL BE ON THE
DECREASE BY AROUND SUNSET...THOUGH SOME BREEZY LOCATIONS MAY
LINGER TOWARDS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. CLOUDS WILL LINGER
OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY TOWARDS CENTRAL/EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

ON SUNDAY...A PLEASANT DAY IS EXPECTED AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
ROCKIES AND LOW SCOOTS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST BRINGING DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW TO OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE
AS COOLER AIRMASS REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER
LEVEL HUDSON BAY LOW AND A WEST COAST/ROCKIES RIDGE...WHICH WILL
MAINTAIN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. THUS THE STATE WILL BE IN FOR A PERIOD OF QUIET
WEATHER.

THE VARIOUS MODELS DEPICT WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE SHORTWAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW OFF AND ON DURING THE PERIOD...BUT NOT ENOUGH
TO WARRANT MENTIONING.

A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. HIGHS FROM THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S MONDAY...WARMING TO HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 952 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

WINDS AND CUMULUS FIELDS ARE QUICKLY DIMINISHING WITH SUNSET. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR MVFR STRATUS ACROSS SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN AND
WESTERN MANITOBA WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH INTO NORTH DAKOTA
LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...AYD






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