Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 202023
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
323 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

A COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE 70S OVER
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND INTO THE UPPER 60S OVER NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. NO PRECIPITATION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE BOUNDARY
JUST YET. HOWEVER...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
PRIMARILY OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS THE MAIN UPPER SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE
INTERNATIONAL BOUNDARY. THE COMBINATION OF WARM TEMPERATURES AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE A "VERY HIGH" FIRE
DANGER OVER MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE OVERNIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
AROUND 30 KNOTS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT...WITH
LOWS FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.

A DRY DAY IS FORECAST FOR MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. HOWEVER...COOLER CANADIAN AIR IS EXPECTED TO ROTATE SOUTH
BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER SHORTWAVE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOUT A CATEGORY
ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

THE HIGHLIGHTS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST ARE A POTENTIAL STORM
SYSTEM FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

THE 12 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN
OCCLUDING WARM FRONT SUPPORTED BY A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY IS FORECAST TO BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE
NORTH THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AS A DRY SLOT BEGINS TO
OVERTAKE THE WEST. THE 12 UTC SUITE...COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY...SUGGESTS THIS DRY SLOT WILL OVERTAKE MUCH OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...RESULTING
IN SIGNIFICANTLY LESS QPF. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE ONCE
AGAIN DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THURSDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO PROPAGATE SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. THEREAFTER...WELL BELOW
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 40S ARE FORECAST FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A
COLD...STRONG SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. SEE INDIVIDUAL TAFS FOR
TIMING DETAILS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...TM




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