Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 211738
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1238 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

SUNNY AND VERY MILD TODAY. BREEZY EAST. CURRENT FORECAST TRENDING
WELL WITH NO SIG UPDATES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 939 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

SUNNY AND VERY MILD TODAY WITH A SOUTHEAST WIND. ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER WILL KEEP A STRONG CAP AROUND 2500 FEET AGL. THIS WILL LIMIT
MIXING. STILL...WITH MIN TEMPS 15 TO 20 DEGREES WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY SHOULD SEE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR HIGHS TODAY DESPITE
MIXING ISSUE. GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH IN THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. THIS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF A
COLD FRONT. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 544 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. GOING FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND ONLY CHANGES
WERE TO ADJUST TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BIT OVER THE SOUTHWEST BASED
ON CURRENT TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

MAIN WEATHER FEATURES IN THE SHORT TERM ARE BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS IN EAST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY...AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INCREASING OVERNIGHT. ELEVATED INSTABILITY COULD AFFECT
THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
SLIDING INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND NORTH INTO MANITOBA.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A COUPLE OF LEADING SHORTWAVES BETWEEN
MONTANA AND WYOMING GENERATING LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN SENSIBLE
WEATHER ELEMENTS. MAIN UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ALOFT WAS SEEN OVER NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND FAR SOUTHERN OREGON.
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES TODAY WITH MIXING HEIGHTS
SPLIT BETWEEN THE SHALLOWER/WEAKER NAM AND MUCH HIGHER/STRONGER
GFS. HENCE WIND SPEEDS/GUSTS FOLLOW THE SAME SCENARIO. WITH
CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION TODAY/UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...USUALLY
MORE DIFFICULT TO OBTAIN/SUSTAIN WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. PAST
EXPERIENCE HAS SHOWN TAKEN A BLEND BETWEEN THE WEAKER NAM AND
STRONGER GFS VERIFIES BETTER THAN TAKING EITHER SOLUTION. THUS
EXPECT THE STRONGEST SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS IN EAST CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...PRIMARILY THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. WILL GO WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS AROUND 20 MPH AND GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH. WINDS TAPER OFF
QUICKLY FARTHER WEST. ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL BE AN AREA OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY COMING UP FROM THE
TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. THE NAM/GFS SHOW THIS AREA SHIFTING NORTH
INTO THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z
WEDNESDAY...THEN SHIFTING EAST THEREAFTER. MOST LIGHTNING STRIKES
THIS MORNING ARE FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
INSTABILITY AREA...BUT WILL ALERT THE DAY/EVENING SHIFT TO WATCH
FOR THE POTENTIAL OF AN ISOLATED STRIKE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT.
WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND LACK OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT DURING THE EVENING
TIME PERIOD...HAVE OPTED TO NOT MENTION ANY THUNDER AND DELAYED
ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE EAST
CENTRAL ZONES. AFTERNOON HIGHS TODAY SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOWER
70S EAST CENTRAL AND MID TO UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE. A COLD FRONT WILL
SHIFT INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS INCREASES AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FRO THE MID 40S WEST TO
LOWER 50S EAST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

ON WEDNESDAY...TROF WITH BASE CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
WORKS ITS WAY OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND TRIES TO CLOSE OFF OVER
THE SOUTHERN PRAIRIE PROVINCES WHILE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
SHIFTS OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE
REGION...PARTICULARLY OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE IN PLACE AND STRONGEST LIFT
REMAINING NORTH AND EAST WILL KEEP CHANCES ON THE LOW SIDE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH STILL ABOVE
AVERAGE.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...BROAD RIDGING OVER THE REGION
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WARM AND CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MODELS HINTING AT NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH
WILL KEEP ANY CHANCES VERY LOW AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON AVIATION
EXPECTED. VFR THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...WAA






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