Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 011448

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
848 AM CST Thu Dec 1 2016

Issued at 839 AM CST Thu Dec 1 2016

Changed radars to VCP 31 as the longer pulse length should help
detect the light freezing drizzle. Not seeing much for surface
reports but some webcams continue to have some ice on them north
central. Will extend the slight chance for freezing drizzle
through noon north.

UPDATE Issued at 628 AM CST Thu Dec 1 2016

Current forecast remains in good shape with no changes needed.
Areas of freezing drizzle remain a concern but should subside by
around mid-morning.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)

Issued at 335 AM CST Thu Dec 1 2016

Main forecast highlight in the short term period will be freezing
drizzle about northwestern, central, and eastern ND this morning.

Currently, northwest flow aloft with a ridge of weak high
pressure over the Northern Plains. Linger boundary layer moisture
maintains our extensive stratus deck across the region. Dry air
aloft (decreasing seeder/feeder ice crystals into the boundary
layer of super-cooled water) advecting south across the local
area and coupled with low level omega/lift is contributing to
areas of freezing drizzle across northwest and central parts of
the state, noted at observing sites and area web cams. Will throw
out a special weather statement for this as already slick roads
may become further impacted from additional light ice
accumulations this morning.

Both the NAM/GFS bring the dry air aloft south to roughly along a
line from Divide/Williams counties southeast through Garrison,
Bismarck, and Linton and points east through 15-18Z. Low level
omega decreases after mid-morning so will include freezing drizzle
in the forecast through the AM hours and remove afterwards.

Otherwise for today/tonight, weak baroclinic zone sets up from
western ND into the south central, and will bring a chance for
some light snow to those areas. Temperatures remain seasonal with
highs today in the 20s and lows tonight mainly in the teens.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)

Issued at 335 AM CST Thu Dec 1 2016

Quasi-active weather pattern in place for the long term period,
with the main concern bitter arctic temperatures for early-mid
next week.

Two progressive S/WVs will bring chances for precipitation mainly
in the form of light snow this coming weekend. The wave moving
through Sunday (more like a clipper type system) may bring
advisory criteria snowfall to portions of the local area. Current
forecast keeps most of the snow accumulations (2-4 inches) north
of Interstate 94. Will monitor this over the next few days as
there does appear to be some potential for strong winds as well as
the surface low moves east and strong CAA materializes in its wake
(potential for blowing snow).

The strong CAA Monday night will usher an Arctic airmass into the
Northern Plains for Tuesday and Wednesday, our first Arctic plunge
of the winter. Models remain consistent with this so our
confidence continues to increase. Highs in the teens for Tuesday
will be followed by single digits above for Wednesday and
Thursday. Morning lows will likely be subzero many areas, with
resultant wind chills Wed-Thu in the -15F to -25F range. Given
our deep snowpack now, temperatures may even be colder than
forecast, especially at night. Will continue to monitor and
message accordingly in our products.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 628 AM CST Thu Dec 1 2016

Widespread IFR/MVFR cigs expected across the area today into
tonight. Areas of -FZDZ expected early this morning over
northwest into central North Dakota including the James River




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