Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 032346
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
546 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 539 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY. RADAR TRENDS THROUGH 2340 UTC DEPITC AN AREA
OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. EXPECT THESE
SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
EVENING...FOLLOWING THE 12 UTC NAM NEST WHICH HAS THE BEST
DEPICTION OF THIS AREA OF SNOW. ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE INCH OR LESS
ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WITH THE CENTER OF THE LOW OVER SOUTHERN
MANITOBA WILL TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
WEAK RADAR RETURNS OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. THE COLD FRONT AND SECONDARY
SHORTWAVE TRACK SOUTHERN FROM SASKATCHEWAN...THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING ANOTHER SWATH OF LIGHT
SNOW TO MAINLY NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THOROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...EXITING THE SOUTHERN
JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY AROUND 12 UTC THURSDAY. MAINLY LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH MOST AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY SEEING UNDER A HALF INCH OF NEW SNOW AREAS
TO THE WEST SHOULD REMAIN DRY. COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT TONIGHT BUT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. EXPECT 10 TO 20
FOR LOWS MOST AREAS. LOCALES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER COULD
SEE A FEW SINGLE DIGITS.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY WITH
LIGHT WINDS. COOLER IN THE EAST THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
TEENS TO MID 20S. WARM ADVECTION RETURNS THURSDAY AFTERNOON WEST
WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOW TO MID 30S. AFTER SNOW MOVES OUT OF
THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY LATE TONIGHT WE SHOULD BE DRY
THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY...THE EXCEPTION WOULD BE THE FAR WEST
WHERE PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAY ENTER BY LATE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM. FOR NOW KEPT CHANCES OUT UNTIL THURSDAY
EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE EXTENDED INCLUDE STRONG WINDS AND SOME LIGHT
SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO PORTRAY A
MODERATELY STRONG WIND EVENT SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AND INTO
MONDAY...BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS AS
WELL AS SNOW AMOUNTS. TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST A RAIN/SNOW MIX
AT TIMES PRIOR TO AND AT THE ONSET OF THE STRONG WINDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND ARRIVES IN
SOUTH CENTRAL ND BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY MORNING. AT THE SURFACE A LOW
PRESSURE CENTER DEVELOPS AT THE MT/ND BORDER AND DEVELOPS INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY FRIDAY MORNING...MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE DAY FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW WARM ADVECTION ACROSS OUR REGION
WITH LOW TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE 20S ABOVE ZERO ALONG AND
SOUTH/WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER THURSDAY NIGHT....WITH NEUTRAL TO
COLD ADVECTION ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE SYSTEM...WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S
AND 30S. CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE SYSTEM THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH CHANCES OF RAIN OR SNOW ON FRIDAY.

THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE PRECEDED BY A SHORTWAVE RIDGE ON
SATURDAY...WITH WARM ADVECTION...AND WILL MAKE FOR A MILD DAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS OUR AREA.

THIS STRONGER CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES EMERGES ON
THE FRONT RANGE WITH A SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHERN ALBERTA ON
SATURDAY...DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...REACHING THE BORDER OF MANITOBA/ONTARIO/ND/MN BY
DAYBREAK SUNDAY. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WITH H850 WINDS OF 50-
60 KNOTS ARE FORECAST BY THE LONG TERM MODELS. THIS WOULD SUGGEST A
SOLID WIND ADVISORY FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WOULD SUPPORT SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS OF 30-35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH. THE MODELS ARE ALSO
SUGGESTING CHANCES OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH
RAIN OR SNOW. AT THIS TIME THE BLEND OF MODEL CONSENSUS WOULD
SUGGEST ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...LESS THAN AN INCH...FROM NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE JAMES VALLEY.

BREEZY CONDITIONS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY. EARLY NEXT WEEK THE
MAIN SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS FOR A TROUGH IN THE EASTERN US AND A RIDGE
IN THE WEST...KEEPING A FAIRLY LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE STATE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 539 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

IFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW AT KMOT IS FORECAST THROUGH 02 UTC
THIS EVENING. IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN LIGHT SNOW AT KJMS
BETWEEN 02-05 UTC. KBIS MAY ALSO BE BRUSHED BY THE SOUTHERN EDGE
OF THE AREA OF LIGHT SNOW THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...WIDESPREAD
MVFR CEILINGS IN STRATUS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY
MORNING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...AYD


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