Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 111533
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
933 AM CST Wed Jan 11 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 931 AM CST Wed Jan 11 2017

No changes other than to blend to observed trends through 15 UTC.
The main concern is the arctic surge tonight into Thursday, and
will continue to evaluate not only the life threatening wind chill
threat, but also the potential for significant blowing snow.

UPDATE Issued at 631 AM CST Wed Jan 11 2017

Forecast remains on track and only change was to blend to latest
hourly obs. Temps across the south were running a little higher
than forecast. Otherwise, coldest wind chills were in the far
north, with wind chills around -40F at Crosby, Minot, and Tioga.
With borderline warning values at relatively few locations and
expected to increase to advisory level range within a couple
hours, no changes are planned to headlines.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 338 AM CST Wed Jan 11 2017

Two highlights in the short term period. First is the wind chill
advisory across western and central North Dakota through tonight,
and the second concern is blowing snow portions of north central
later tonight, which ultimately may warrant an advisory.

For today, the first reinforcing surge of arctic air is now
pushing toward the southern border, with light snow still
occurring but the intensity is weakening. Expect the light snow to
exit the southeast around daybreak. An area of stratus in the
northwest is moving southeast early this morning. Overall though,
expect a mostly sunny sky to evolve across western and central ND.
Wind chills will reach to near 40 below zero across the north for
a few hours this morning. Otherwise, mostly sunny but dangerously
cold today with highs in the single digits below zero.

For tonight...our last surge of bitterly frigid air is now
located over northern Alberta. The leading edge of the 3 hourly
pressure falls is now into south central Saskatchewan. This chunk
of bitterly cold air will sweep from northwest to southeast
between midnight and daybreak Thursday. Behind this arctic
boundary, both the NAM/GFS indicate a large area of 3hr pressure
rises of 7mb to 9mb which will push through between 09z and 18z
Thursday. The strongest isallobaric forcing will occur over north
central ND resulting in west to northwest winds increasing to
between 25 and 40 mph late tonight through mid morning Thursday.
The Baggaley Blowing Snow Model suggests an advisory is becoming
increasingly likely for portions of north central North Dakota
late tonight through Thursday morning. Will let the dayshift
evaluate this with the latest winds/blowing snow/low visibilities
for possible headlines.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 338 AM CST Wed Jan 11 2017

Dangerous to life threatening wind chills Thursday through Friday
morning, then transitioning to a moderating trend for the rest of
the long term period. No precipiation expected during the
Thursday through Tuesday timeframe.

The brunt of the bitterly frigid air overspread western and central
North Dakota Thursday into Friday morning. Wind chills to around
43 below zero are forecast for north central and into the James
River valley, while 25 to 40 below zero values are anticipated
elsewhere. Thus at this time, fully expect a wind chill warning
and a wind chill advisory for the above mentioned areas as we get
closer to the event.

Friday afternoon through Tuesday, dry with plenty of sunshine as a
zonal flow gets established. Warm air advection gradually scours
out the frigid air in place. Highs will moderate into the teens
Saturday, through the 20s Sunday and Monday, then transitioning
to widespread highs in the 30s by Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 931 AM CST Wed Jan 11 2017

VFR conditions expected through most of the period. The next
Alberta Clipper will move across the area later tonight.
Southwest winds will strengthen ahead of the clipper this evening,
eventually shifting out of the northwest. Will need to monitor
for potential reductions in visibility due to blowing snow tonight
through Thursday.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Chill Advisory until 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ Thursday for
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...AYD



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