Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 240012
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
612 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 611 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015

LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SPREAD SOUTH OVER NORTH
DAKOTA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SCATTERED FLURRIES WILL BE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS LOW CLOUD DECK. FURTHERMORE...BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS WELL DUE TO GRADIENT FLOW FROM A
SURFACE LOW OVER HUDSON BAY/ONTARIO. THE COMBINATION OF A COUPLED
BOUNDARY LAYER AND INCREASING LOW CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL.

SNOW CHANCES STILL LOOK TO BE ON TARGET FOR DEVELOPING NORTHWEST
TUESDAY MORNING...AND SPREADING SOUTHEAST TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE CURRENT SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS A
GOOD HANDLE ON THIS EVENT SO WILL LEAVE IT ALONE FOR THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER NORTHEAST MANITOBA WITH
TROUGH DIPPING SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. COLD FRONT
REMAINS TO THE NORTH OVER CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC WITH SECONDARY LOW
OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA/SOUTHERN NEVADA...WHILE PACIFIC RIDGE
NUDGES TOWARDS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. FAST NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW REMAINS OVER OUR AREA.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...GUSTY WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST AS SURFACE LOW SLIDES OFF
TO THE SOUTHEAST AND COLD FRONT STARTS WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE
AREA. LOWER CLOUD COVER WILL WORK ITS WAY IN...WITH SOME FLURRIES
POSSIBLE.

ON TUESDAY...BAROCLINIC ZONE STARTS SETTING UP OVER THE WESTERN PART
OF THE STATE AS RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET STREAK PASSES OVER.
EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHWEST/WEST
CENTRAL...PARTICULARLY TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON HOURS. OVER THE
SOUTHWEST...RAIN OR A RAIN SNOW MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE. NOTABLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED NORTH AND EAST...WHILE THE SOUTHWEST
WILL REMAIN A BIT MILD.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015

A GOOD CHANCE OF SNOW FOLLOWED BY MORE ARCTIC AIR...THEN DRY WITH A
MODEST WARMING TREND FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

BY TUESDAY EVENING...A BAROCLINIC ZONE SHOULD BE SET UP FROM WESTERN
SASKATCHEWAN ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...INTO
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO BE SOMEWHERE
AROUND NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA OR NORTHEAST WYOMING...WITH AN
INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWESTWARD INTO NORTH CENTRAL/EASTERN
MONTANA. THESE FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD TUESDAY
NIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE...WITH THE LAST
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE EXITING SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING.

HIGH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY OVER WESTERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LINGERING IN THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE TRICKY ON TUESDAY EVENING. A STRONG
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL BE IN PLACE BY TUESDAY EVENING. THE
NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF INDICATE A SLIGHT MOVEMENT EASTWARD OF WARMER
TEMPERATURES AT H85 DURING THE EVENING...THEN RETREATING BACK
WESTWARD BY MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT. THUS SNOW MAY BE MIXED WITH
FREEZING RAIN AT TIMES IN THE EVENING...BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO ALL
SNOW AS THE NEXT ARCTIC HIGH BRINGS STRONG COLD ADVECTION FROM
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT. THE NAM WAS WARMER THAN THE
GFS AND ECMWF WITH RESPECT TO THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT...SO GAVE A NOD
TOWARDS COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A MENTION OF
FREEZING RAIN. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND A LOOK AT MID-LEVEL RH FROM ALL
THREE MODELS INDICATE DRYING AT MID-LEVELS DURING THE EVENING
ALLOWING SUPERCOOLED WATER DROPLETS TO FORM AT LOWER LEVELS.

REGARDING SNOW AMOUNTS...IN A 48-HOUR PERIOD...IT APPEARS THAT A
LARGE SWATH OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE WILL SEE SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS. THE FAVORED AREA FOR 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW APPEARS TO BE
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...NAMELY FROM CROSBY
AND WILLISTON...TO WATFORD CITY...TO DICKINSON/BISMARCK...TO
HETTINGER/LINTON. ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED FROM
BOTTINEAU/RUGBY TO STEELE/JAMESTOWN TO OAKES.

THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT THE HIGH CENTER AXIS
TRAVERSES THE STATE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. HIGHS WEDNESDAY
WILL LIKELY NOT BE TOO MUCH HIGHER THAN LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
HIGHS FROM ZERO TO 10 ABOVE NORTH AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER AND
10 TO 20 SOUTH AND WEST. THE COLDEST NIGHTS WILL HAVE LOWS FROM 5
BELOW TO 20 BELOW BOTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

MAINLY DRY FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH ANY STORM
SYSTEMS REMAINING SOUTH OF OUR AREA. A GRADUAL WARM-UP IS IN STORE
BEGINNING FRIDAY...BUT STILL REMAINING BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 611 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING SHOULD DETERIORATE TO MVFR CIGS
OVERNIGHT AS TRAILING STRATUS IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. FLURRIES COULD BE
EMBEDDED IN THESE CLOUDS. THEREFORE...INCLUDED VCSH IN THE TAFS TO
INDICATE SAID POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE...IFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT
SNOW ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER KISN TUESDAY MORNING...THEN
SPREAD INTO KDIK TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MAKE IT
INTO KMOT-KBIS BY TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...TM



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