Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 212016

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
316 PM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 259 PM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017

A return above normal temperatures minimal chances for light
precipitation on Wednesday highlight the short term forecast.

Surface high pressure across the Northern Plains and Upper
Mississippi Valley this afternoon will propagate into the Great
Lakes on Wednesday. Return southeasterly flow will commence across
the region tonight and continue through Wednesday. A warm front
will enter western North Dakota Wednesday afternoon with highs in
the 50s expected along and west of US Highway 85 with 30s ahead of
the front across the James River Valley through the Turtle
Mountains. The 12 UTC global suite continues the trend of less and
less QPF expected with weak impulses embedded in the upper level
right, with now only slight chance at best expectations for light
snow on Wednesday central.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 259 PM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017

Above normal temperatures highlight the extended forecast.

The development of split upper level flow is favored on the 12
UTC global suites as an upper level low cuts off across the
Southern Plains Thursday night and into the southern Great Lakes
potentially by Sunday. This favors continued above normal
temperatures with highs in the 40s and 50s. The best chance for
precipitation is on Thursday associated with the influence of a
stronger shortwave north of the aforementioned low. There is a
slight chance for freezing rain Thursday morning across southern
North Dakota, however, the presence of rather dry warm layer aloft
may mitigate how much precipitation can hit the ground.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 259 PM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017

A few pockets of MVFR stratus across southwest North Dakota will
continue for much of the day. MVFR stratus expected to expand back
north into southwestern ND...eventually reaching KBIS and
possibly into KISN. Winds to become southeasterly and increase
tonight and Wednesday with gusty winds through Wednesday. Light
snow or rain possible Wednesday, but too far out in the TAF
forecast to mention directly in TAFs for this forecast package.




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