Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 140533
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1233 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAD ENTERED NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA BEHIND AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. OBSERVATIONS AND REGIONAL RADARS INDICATE
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW OVER THE NORTHWEST...AND SAT PICS SHOWING AREA
OF CLOUDS MOVING SOUTH AND EAST AS PER THE SHORT RANGE MODELS.
INCREASED THE AREA OF MENTION FOR SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW...BUT
OTHERWISE CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK. ONLY MINOR CHANGES IN HOURLY
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS (INCREASING IN THE VICINITY OF
CLOUDS/SNOW)...BUT NO BIG CHANGE FOR EXPECTED OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
15 TO 20 DEGREE RANGE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 934 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE HAS NOW ENTERED NORTHWESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. THE KGGW WSR-88D IS DETECTING ELEVATED
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY APPROACHING THE ND/MT BORDER. HOWEVER...THE
00Z KGGW SOUNDING OBSERVED A VERY DRY LAYER EXTENDING FROM THE
SURFACE TO 700MB. THESE ELEVATED SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
EVAPORATING BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND AS NONE OF THE MONTANA SURFACE
OBS HAVE REPORTED PRECIP THIS EVENING.

STILL INDICATED SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW-END CHANCE POPS OVER
NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT AS THE DRY
LAYER WILL LIKELY WET BULB TO NEAR SATURATION AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
THE PRECIPITATION FALLING INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER. STILL THINK
ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE...IF ANY ACCUMULATION AT
ALL.

THE REMAINING FORECAST ELEMENTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE. THE FRESHENED
UP PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 707 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE ROTATING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE TO ROTATE INTO NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
TONIGHT. IT COULD TRIGGER A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...MAINLY
OVER NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT.

ONLY UPDATED THE FORECAST TO DELAY THE ONSET OF SNOW SHOWER
CHANCES NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL BY A FEW HOURS AS THE
SHORTWAVE HAS NOT EVEN ENTERED THE STATE YET. OTHERWISE...THE
REMAINING FORECAST ELEMENTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE. THE UPDATED
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. EXPECT ANOTHER COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY
IN THE TEENS. SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE...MOST FAVORED
ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED...IF ANY. LIGHT SNOW WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. LOOK FOR ANOTHER CHILLY DAY ON
MONDAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 30S EAST AND CENTRAL...AND
AROUND 40 DEGREES WEST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHING EAST AND RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION.
INCREASING ISENTROPIC FLOW OVER CENTRAL ND AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW
OVER MY NORTH NEAR A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TUESDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON.

FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO MORE ZONAL TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
AS AN EMBEDDED S/WV MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND ANOTHER WAVE
DROPS SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. BOTH FEATURES WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW NORTH OF THE
SURFACE LOW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY DAYTIME AS THE LOW MOVES
EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS SD/NB. WAA STILL DEPICTED TO BE CONFINED TO
MY SOUTHWEST TUESDAY WHILE COLDER AIR IS MAINTAINED NORTH AND
EAST RESULTING IN A TIGHT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST. MODELS AGAIN A BIT DIFFERENT COMPARED TO 24 HOURS
AGO REGARDING MOISTURE...CUTTING QPF IN HALF BUT STILL WOULD
GENERATE MAINLY SNOW LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WED. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION IN THE HWO AS 1-3 INCHES REMAINS IN THE
FORECAST.

MODEL UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH AFTERWARDS BUT DOES APPEAR TO BE
MAINLY DRY ALONG WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS WITH -SN OVER KISN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE/EXPAND
SOUTH AND EAST OVER TAF SITES WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. CIGS
BECOMING VFR FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...BEGINNING AROUND 11Z AT
KISN TO AROUND 18Z AT KJMS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JV






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