Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 191739
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1239 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

AT 08Z...PRECIPITATION IN EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS IS
INCREASING IN COVERAGE AS IT MAKES ITS WAY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.
AT ITS CURRENT RATE OF MOVEMENT AND EXPANSION...THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD ARRIVE INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND THE SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE
AROUND 14Z. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED IN SOUTH
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND WAS GENERATING SOUTHEAST WIND FROM SOUTH
TEXAS TO EASTERN COLORADO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS ON THE 295-305K SURFACES SHOW
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OF NEARLY SATURATED AIR SPREADING INTO NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY 18Z TODAY. THE MIXING RATIO IS EXPECTED TO BE
4-8G/KG IN THAT LAYER...SO AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS DECENT. IN
FACT...THE PRECIPITABLE WATER IS EXPECTED TO BE 0.75-1.00 INCH
AND PRECIPITATION TOTALS COULD GO 0.50-1.25 BY 12Z WEDNESDAY OVER
MOST OF THE AREA.

A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR IS EXPECTED TO GIVE TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S TONIGHT WITH SOME LOW TO MID 30S IN THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND THE WESTERN SANDHILLS. PERSISTENT
CLOUDINESS WILL KEEP A FLOOR UNDER THE LOW TEMPERATURES AND A
KILLING FREEZE IS NOT LIKELY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE LIFTING ACROSS THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY. PRECIP CHANCE DIMINISH DURING THE DAY FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS DRY AIR GETS DRAWN INTO THE SYSTEM.
EARLY MORNING TEMP PROFILE COLD ENOUGH FOR RARE LATE MAY SNOW
ACROSS NORTHWEST ZONES. PRIMARILY SHERIDAN AND WESTERN
CHERRY...MAYBE INTO NORTHERN GARDEN. LINGERING ACCUMULATION IN
THE MORNING WILL BE LIGHT AND MAINLY ON THE GRASSY SURFACES.
AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE...WITH ONLY MID
40S TO MID 50S...AS CANADIAN HIGH SETTLES SOUTH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY AND SOME CONCERN FOR SOME FROST AS
TEMPS DIP INTO THE MID 30S. MODELS STILL HOLDING ON TO SOME MID
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ALTHOUGH IT HAS TRENDED LOWER. CONCERN IS IF
SKIES CLEAR MAY NEED A MENTION OF FROST. WINDS AT THE SFC SHOULD
BE FAIRLY LIGHT AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS
DIFFER ON LOCATION OF THE CENTER OF THE HIGH. ANOTHER FOCUS
OVERNIGHT WILL BE INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE SFC HIGH. THIS WILL BRING AND INCREASE OF MOISTURE AND MODELS
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY. TEMP PROFILE CLOSE TO ZERO C
AND COULD SEE SOME SNOW AND DID INCLUDE A MIX IN THE EASTERN
PANHANDLE. MODELS WERE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE HIGH A LITTLE FURTHER
WEST AND PUSHED POPS FURTHER WEST...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
ACTIVITY REMAINED WEST OF THE CWA.

AFTER A QUITE...WARMER AND DRY THURSDAY THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL DIG
INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. MEANWHILE THE SFC HIGHS SHIFTS
SOUTHEAST. RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE MOISTURE ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A PIECE OF
ENERGY AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW. INCREASE POPS AND LIKELY SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AS THE INITIAL WAVE HITS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. AS THE UPPER LOW ARRIVE LATER SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...GENERALLY SHOWERS WITH THE INSTABILITY SHIFTED SOUTH AND
EAST.

BY MONDAY THE SYSTEM WILL BE EXITING TO THE EAST...ALTHOUGH COULD
SEE SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE LINGERING SHOWERS. HIGHS STILL
BELOW NORMAL...IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

WIDESPREAD LOW CIGS AND SHOWERS WILL CONITNUE ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE RAINFALL IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY AND SIGNIFICANTLY DROP VISIBILITY...HOWEVER
LOW STRATUS CLOUDS WILL PERSIST. AS OF 17Z TUESDAY MOST LOCAL
OBSERVATIONS SHOW A BROKEN MVFR DECK BENEATH A HIGHER OVERCAST
DECK. THE CURRENT FORECAST TREND CALLS FOR LOWER CIGS TO DEVELOP
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT...WITH OVERCAST IFR CIGS
LIKELY AROUND OR AFTER 21Z. CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SPRINGER
SHORT TERM...SPRINGER
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...MARTIN







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