Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 130954
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
354 AM CST Mon Feb 13 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 319 AM CST Mon Feb 13 2017

Split flow highlighted the upper air pattern across the CONUS
this morning. A broad ridge of high pressure was present across
western Canada with a trough located from Hudson Bay south into
the upper Ohio Valley. Disconnected from the northern stream, a
closed low was located over Baja California. Showers with embedded
thunderstorms were occurring over portions of Arizona, New Mexico
and west Texas in association with this feature. High clouds were
noted further north and extended into Colorado, Oklahoma and
Kansas. Some of these high clouds had pushed into far southern
Nebraska overnight and were just off to the south of the forecast
area. Skies were mostly clear overnight and 3 AM CST readings were
generally in the 20s to around 30.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 319 AM CST Mon Feb 13 2017

A benign weather pattern will continue over the next 24 hours. A
northeast, to southwest oriented surface trough, will track across
western and north central Nebraska today, clearing the forecast
area by mid afternoon. Little or no temperature advection will be
associated with this feature, but rather a weak wind shift from
south to north. Slightly drier air will be found north of this
boundary and this drier air extends aloft. Skies will be clear
across central and northern portions of the forecast area, while
some thin high clouds may push into far southern portions of the
forecast area through this afternoon. Guidance temperatures came
in slightly warmer for this afternoon with the 00z forecast run
earlier tonight and highs were trended upward from the upper 40s
to lower 50s. Weak high pressure will build south into eastern
Wyoming and Nebraska tonight. Clear skies and light winds will
lead to lows in the lower 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 319 AM CST Mon Feb 13 2017

A strong disturbance will dive southeast from central Canada
through the Great Lakes region Tuesday. This will drive a cold
front south through the area. The airmass behind the front is
mild Pacific air, and high temperatures will only be a couple of
degrees cooler than today`s highs. Winds will increase some,
especially from about noon to 4:00pm, as stronger winds aloft mix
to the surface aided by weak cold air advection. Local northwest
gusts to 30 mph area possible, especially east of an Ainsworth to
Broken Bow line.

A nice warm up Wednesday through Friday as upper level ridging
translates eastward across the area. High temperatures these days
will reach into the 60s at most locations, especially Thursday
and Friday. A strong Pacific storm system will move into
California Friday bringing heavy rain and snow. This system will
move east into the central and southern Rockies Saturday.
Southerly winds will increase across the central and southern
plains ahead of the system later Saturday into Sunday. This will
draw Gulf of Mexico moisture northward, with dew points reaching
into the 40s and possibly even lower 50s by Sunday evening. As the
system ejects east from the Rockies Sunday there are some big
differences between the GFS and ECMWF models. The GFS brings the
system through our area while the ECMWF is much farther north.
One thing both models agree on is that a decent amount of moisture
will be available due to the open Gulf. For now will include a
slight chance for showers Sunday afternoon with rain chances
likely increasing some by Sunday night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1107 PM CST Sun Feb 12 2017

VFR ceilings and visibility will persist across western Nebraska
the next 24 hours. Winds will be light southwest overnight into
Monday morning, then becoming light northwest Monday afternoon and
evening.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...Roberg



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