Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 291802
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
102 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS A VERY ACTIVE NORTHERN
STREAM ACROSS CANADA AND ALASKA WITH SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL LOWS
PRESENT. CLOSED LOWS WERE LOCATED OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA...NORTHERN PORTIONS OF HUDSON BAY...THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...AS WELL AS OFF THE COAST OF NRN ALASKA. ACROSS THE
CONUS...HIGH PRESSURE WAS PRESENT OFF THE COAST OF SRN CA...AS
WELL AS THE FAR SERN CONUS. CLOSER TO WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE DAKOTAS...SWD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. UPSTREAM OF
THIS FEATURE...A NICE SHORTWAVE WAS PRESENT OVER SRN PORTIONS OF
MT. RADAR IMAGERY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS...HAS A NICE
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM EASTERN KS INTO
FAR EASTERN NEBRASKA THIS MORNING WITH ALL ACTIVITY OFF TO THE
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. SKIES HAVE GRADUALLY CLEARED OVERNIGHT
WEST OF A LINE FROM ATKINSON TO BROKEN BOW WHERE DRIER MID LEVEL
AIR HAS PUSHED INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. TEMPERATURES AS
OF 3 AM CDT...RANGED FROM 54 AT OGALLALA TO 65 AT BROKEN BOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS A MINIMAL
THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.
FOR TODAY...SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR THIS MORNING IN THE
EASTERN CWA AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST
INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY. FURTHER WEST...SKIES WILL BEGIN TO
CLOUD UP THIS AFTERNOON AS THE BEFORE MENTIONED DISTURBANCE OVER
SRN MT APPROACHES THE NEBR PANHANDLE. WITH HEATING THIS
AFTERNOON...LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN
SIGNIFICANTLY...INCREASING THE THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. DECIDED TO KEEP SHOWER COVERAGE TO A MINIMUM
AS AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS SIGNIFICANTLY LESS THAN WHAT WE HAD A
COUPLE OF DAYS AGO. THIS IS EVIDENT IN PWATS OF 0.75 TO 1.00 INCH
VS. THE 1.5 TO 2.0 INCH PWATS OF A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO. WE WILL BE
IN A VERY WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AS WELL...SO STORMS WILL BE OF
THE PULSE TYPE WITH SHORT DURATION EXPECTED. WITH COOLING THIS
EVENING...THE THREAT FOR STORMS IS EXPECTED TO END QUICKLY BY 03Z.
AFTER HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S...DRIER AIR WILL
PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF DRIER AIR
AND CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW LOWS TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

SATURDAY WILL SEE THE HIGH PLAINS BETWEEN SUBTLE DISTURBANCES WITH
MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH A LITTLE RIDGING OVERHEAD. THIS SHOULD
AID IN LITTLE CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY. MOS GUIDANCE HAS TEMPS
WELL INTO THE 80S AND A FEW LOWER 90S. FORECAST IS ON THE
CONSERVATIVE SIDE...GOING WITH THE LOWER GUIDANCE OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW...CONSIDERING MOST AREAS HAVE RECEIVED AT LEAST A COUPLE OF
INCHES THE PAST FEW DAYS AND THE GROUND WILL STILL BE DAMP.

MEANWHILE EYES BEGIN TO FOCUS ON THE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PAC
NW. THIS TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE ROCKIES EARLY ON SUNDAY...AS
A SFC COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. GOOD AGREEMENT WITH CAPE
VALUES OF 2K TO 4K J/KG AND 40 TO 55 KTS OF SHEAR AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THE CONCERN IS WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE LOCATED AT PEAK
HEAT. GENERAL MODEL BLEND IS ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WITH
THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO SEE DEVELOPMENT. STEEP LAPSES
RATE POST FRONT MAY BE ENOUGH FOR SOME ISOLD/SCT SHOWERS.

ACTIVITY QUICKLY MOVES EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MODELS IN AGREEMENT
ENDING PRECIP BY MIDNIGHT...AND FORECAST HAS GONE DRY OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN LESS CLOUD COVER AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. FORECAST FOLLOWS COOL GUIDANCE WITH
TEMPS TRENDING COOLER.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH
LOW POPS CONTINUED. THEN ZONAL FLOW WILL SLOWLY BECOME
WEST SOUTHWESTERLY. MODELS KEEP MOISTURE PLUM TO THE SOUTH OF THE
CWA...WITH MUCH OF THE WEEK EXPECTED TO BE DRY. TEMPS WILL BE ON
A SLOW CLIMB. TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...A TROUGH WILL
DIG IN ACROSS THE WESTERN COAST. THIS WILL CAUSE THE FLOW TO
BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR AS THIS SET UP
WILL LIKELY BRING A HIGHER CHANCE FOR POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE...STORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE
FOR MOST AREA TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ATTM...THE
LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF STORMS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TERMINALS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT ENOUGH TO
WARRANT A TSRA MENTION AT KLBF THIS EVENING. AT KVTN...DEBATED
WHETHER TO GO WITH VCTS OR ACTUAL TSRA...BUT EVENTUALLY SIDED WITH
THE LATEST HRRR WHICH INDICATES STORMS AFTER 00Z. ERRATIC WIND
AND MODERATE RAINFALL WOULD ACCOMPANY ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS.
OTHERWISE ONGOING STORMS ACROSS FAR NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WILL
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR OR LOWER RESTRICTIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
AT KONL WHEN IMPACTED BY A STORM. FOG MAY BE A CONCERN TOMORROW
MORNING...GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING REDUCED VISIBILITY AT BOTH KVTN
AND KLBF.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...JACOBS








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