Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 220839

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
339 AM CDT MON AUG 22 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 317 AM CDT Mon Aug 22 2016

Sfc low pressure across Alberta this morning moves east into
North Dakota by Tuesday morning. The models show a lobe of low
pressure across Wrn SD this afternoon which will support a hot
surge of air into Nrn Neb. A blend of guidance plus bias
correction suggested highs in the 90s...about a degree below the
previous forecast. The forecast was marked up 1 degree to close in
on the previous forecast.

Winds increase to 15 to 25 mph this afternoon and decrease only
slightly tonight with the low level jet forming. Lows tonight are
mostly 60s with 50s in the panhandle.

The NAM and GFS suggest a weak disturbance will emerge off the Srn
Rockies tonight and track through Wrn KS toward Cntl Neb. The 500-
1000 J/KG of elevated cape and the disturbance could be sufficient
for an isolated thunderstorm or two as the low level jet develops
tonight. The area for development in the models covers just
Frontier County.

A check on the stratus and fog in the NAM...ARW...NMM and SREF
models indicates no development tonight. Perhaps mixing just after
sunrise might produce scattered to broken low clouds around 12z
Tuesday as the models suggest.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 317 AM CDT Mon Aug 22 2016

A cold front will be driven south through the area Tuesday as a
strong area of upper level low pressure crosses southern Canada.
Hi-Resolution models are in good agreement with the timing of the
front, and has it extending from roughly Ainsworth to Brady early
Tuesday evening. Shear and instability will be supportive of
strong or even a few severe storms ahead of the front, and rich
moisture profiles suggest potential for heavy rain.

A cool canadian airmass will invade behind the front Wednesday
and Thursday, with highs in the 70s.

The next shot of precipitation will arrive Thursday night into
Friday, when a shortwave aloft is projected to cross the northern
Rockies and amplify as it moves into the northern plains.

Conditions will turn warmer for the weekend as ridging aloft
builds north across the region. Mid and upper level subtropical
monsoonal moisture will also return north, so some increase in
mid level clouds is likely with a chance for a few isolated


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Sun Aug 21 2016

Nocturnal low-level jet has formed a bit earlier than expected
based on local VWP data so TAFs were amended to account for
this. In the TAFs, the height of LLWS is about 1000 ft with a
speed of about 40-45 kts at the top. Low-level jet should start
diminishing in the early morning.

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period.
Partly to mostly clear skies are currently observed across western
and north central Nebraska, with high clouds currently moving in
from the west across the southern half of the forecast area.
Tomorrow: Partly to mostly clear skies. Windy conditions across
most of the area with southerly winds picking up by late morning.
Gusts will be peaking at 20-25 mph in the afternoon across
portions of central and north central NE. Otherwise, not expecting
much in terms of CU tomorrow, with sky cover FEW possible.
Otherwise, mainly high clouds.


Issued at 317 AM CDT Mon Aug 22 2016

Humidity drops to between 15 and 20 percent this afternoon across
Sheridan and Garden Counties using National Blend data plus bias
corrected guidance. This is above criteria. The HRRR and RAP
models produce lower humidity but a check on the wind gust
products in the NAM...HRRR and RAP models show wind gusts well
below 22kts. The fuel status is uncertain given the last update
was August 1st.


.LBF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


LONG TERM...Taylor
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