Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 231904
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
204 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2015

VERY WARM MOIST AIR HAS SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION IS SOMEWHAT DRIER
AIR TO THE WEST OF A SURFACE TROUGH/DRY LINE...WHICH EXTENDS FROM
ROUGHLY VALENTINE TO NEAR OGALLALA. THIS DRY LINE WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING ALONG AND EAST OF A VALENTINE TO OGALLALA LINE.
SHEAR IS ADEQUATE TO SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AND POSSIBLE
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. OVERALL
FORCING UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS WEAK...SO NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
SEVERE STORMS...BUT A ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER IS QUITE POSSIBLE.
OTHERWISE A WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT EXPECTED...WITH LOWS GENERALLY
IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.

A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHERN CANADA LATE TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO NEBRASKA FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL BE A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED
LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80.
AGAIN EXPECTING HIGH HUMIDITY FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA NEAR THE STALLED FRONT. HEAT INDEX READINGS
COULD APPROACH 100 DEGREES IN THESE AREAS. A BIT DRIER AIR WILL
FILTER INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA...WITH CONDITIONS A BIT MORE
COMFORTABLE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT THU JUL 23 2015

BROAD RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS THROUGH THE LONG TERM. A
FEW LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CANADA.
MAIN IMPACT ALOFT FOR THE CWA WITH BE SEVERAL MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCES THAT WILL QUICKLY PUSH ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS. MEANWHILE AT THE SFC A SERIES OF WEAK COLD
FRONTS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA...ONLY TO REINFORCE/STALL TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST.

FRIDAY A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA. WARM AND MOIST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE SOUTHEAST
PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND MAYBE NORTH CENTRAL FOR HEAT ADVISORY.
CURRENT TREND THIS MORNING IS SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THE FRONT SO
HEAT INDEX READINGS TOP OUT RIGHT AROUND 100 DEGREES. ALONG AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR SOME ISOLATED/SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THE FRONT MODELS BRING AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WHICH COULD BE A SECOND AREA OF DEVELOPMENT.

SLIGHTLY COOLER...3 TO 5 DEGREES...IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR
SATURDAY. MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH AND MODELS BRING ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE AREA. THE FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE
AREA...HOWEVER WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED THE DAY BEFORE...SEVERAL
RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES MAY BE OVER THE AREA AND ENOUGH FOR
ADDITIONAL STORMS.

ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES WITH THE NEXT STRONGER COLD FRONT
EXPECTED MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HIGHS CONTINUE TO BE IN THE
UPPER 80S TO MID 90S AHEAD OF THE FRONT THEN COOLING TO THE MID
TO UPPER 80S BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2015

REMAINING STRATUS AFFECTING PARTS OF SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...MAINLY
EAST OF KIML AND KLBF...WILL DISSIPATE BY 20Z. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
WESTERN NEBRASKA...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ALONG AND EAST FROM KIML
TO KLBF TO KVTN. WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFT TO NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND
NORTHEAST BY FRIDAY MORNING.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...DS


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