Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KLBF 190459 AAB
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1159 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

CHILLY NIGHT EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH WILL ACTUALLY MOVE DOWN THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY...WITH THE
LIGHTEST WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN POTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. THIS WILL ALSO BE WHERE CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH
OF THE NIGHT...AND THE GOING FROST ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD. WILL ADD
WHEELER COUNTY AND KEEP THE REST OF THE COUNTIES UNCHANGED. CURRENT
DEW POINTS ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S UPSTREAM...SO LOWS IN THE
LOWER 30S LIKELY AS DEW POINTS FALL TO NEAR 30 DEGREES OVERNIGHT.
FOR AREAS ACROSS SOUTHWEST INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA...INCREASING CLOUDS
AND AT LEAST A GENTLE BREEZE WILL HELP KEEP LOWS ABOVE ANY FROST
THRESHOLD.

THE NEXT IN THIS SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. EXPECT ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND STRONG
MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO INCREASE DURING THE MORNING ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...WITH RAIN DEVELOPING. THIS WILL SPREAD NORTH AND EAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. IN FAR NORTH CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA...DRY AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE EAST/NORTHEAST WILL
INITIALLY KEEP CONDITIONS DRY. EVENTUALLY THOUGH THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
SATURATE AND AT LEAST LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED BY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. GENERALLY EXPECTING A TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION OF ONE
HALF TO ONE INCH ACROSS SOUTHWEST INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA...WITH ONE
QUARTER TO LOCALLY ONE HALF INCH ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. IT WILL BE A VERY RAW DAY TEMPERATURE WISE...WITH H850 MB
TEMPERATURES ONLY NEAR FREEZING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. WITH THE
CLOUDS AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN...HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S
EXPECTED AT MOST LOCATIONS.

AS FAR AS THE FLOODING SITUATION ON THE SOUTH PLATTE AND PLATTE
RIVERS IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. CURRENTLY THE RIVER LEVELS ARE SLOWLY
FALLING. EXPECT NORTH PLATTE TO FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE LATE TONIGHT.
AT ROSCOE AND BRADY...EXPECT LEVELS TO REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE RAIN TOMORROW SHOULD NOT FALL AT A
HEAVY RATE....AND SHOULD HAVE LITTLE AFFECT ON THE RIVERS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

THE CLOSED LOW IN SRN WYOMING WILL LIFT INTO SWRN SD OVERNIGHT.
RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ACROSS WRN NEBR WITH LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS OVERNIGHT. COOLER AIR ALOFT INDICATED AS..850 MB
TEMPS COOL TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW 0C OVER MUCH OF THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES. SOUNDINGS SUPPORT A RAIN/SNOW MIX TUESDAY
EVENING SHERIDAN AND NW CHERRY COUNTY WITH PRIMARILY -SN NRN
SHERIDAN COUNTY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME ACCUMULATIONS ON GRASSY
SURFACES APPEAR LIKELY WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR 2 INCHES IN NRN
SHERIDAN COUNTY TO AN INCH OR LESS ADJACENT SRN SHERIDAN AND NWRN
CHERRY COUNTY.

WEDNESDAY WILL SEE THE SYSTEM MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA WITH
ATMOSPHERIC LIFT DIMINISHING OR ENDING BY AFTERNOON. POPS SHOULD
END ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES BY AFTERNOON WHILE A CHANCE
CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTH. TEMPS COLDEST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST IN
THE MID AND UPPER 40S WITH LOWER 50S CNTRL AND SOUTHEAST.

CONTINUED COOL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE EAST INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MOISTURE RETURN
ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DIGS
TOWARDS THE 4 CORNERS FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING INCREASED CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY BY FRIDAY.

AS UPPER LOW MOVES INTO CO/WY SATURDAY...LEESIDE CYCLOGENESIS
EXPECTED IN ECTRL CO AS A WARM FRONT EXTENDS EAST ACROSS SRN NEBR.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE
STORMS IN THE AFTN AND EVENING. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO
LINGER INTO SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT AS UPPER LOW FILLS AND LIFTS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SHOWERS CHANCES ONLY SLIGHT FOR MEMORIAL
DAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON LOCATION OF THE WARM
FRONT. THE 12Z GFS FURTHER NORTH THAN THE 12Z ECMWF. CURRENT FCST
IS FOR A BLEND WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S SOUTHEAST TO LOWER 60S
NORTHWEST. SIMILAR HIGHS FOR SUNDAY BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT.
MEMORIAL DAY MAINLY UPPER 60S FCST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

VISUAL FLIGHT RULES EXPECTED OVER NIGHT WITH INCREASING MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA. DEEP EASTERLY FLOW OVER NIGHT. RAIN
WILL BEGIN EARLY IN THE PANHANDLE AND THEN MOVE INTO WESTERN
NEBRASKA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. CAN EXPECT TO SEE SOME SNOW OVER THE
NORTHWEST. RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH CEILINGS LOWERING INTO MVFR CATEGORIES
AND POSSIBLE IFR CATEGORIES LATE IN THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT /7 AM MDT/ TUESDAY FOR NEZ005>010-
029-094.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...POWER





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.