Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 241516
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1016 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

AT 08Z...TWO MAIN AREAS OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXIST. ONE
LOCATED IN FAR ERN WY WHILE THE OTHER IN THE OKLA PNHDL. VERY
LITTLE CURRENTLY ON THE KLBF RADAR EXCEPT FOR A NARROW BAND OF
SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES FROM SWRN CUSTER COUNTY INTO SERN LINCOLN
AND FRONTIER COUNTY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CURRENTLY EXTEND FROM PARTS OF NCTRL KS INTO SCTRL AND SERN NEBR
AND NWRN MISSOURI WITH JUST OVER 200 LIGHTNING STRIKES THE PAST
HOUR.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1016 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

FORECAST WAS UPDATED DUE TO RADAR AND CLOUD TRENDS FOR THIS
MORNING AS RAIN SHOWERS OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA ARE
PROGRESSING EAST AND SHOULD BE MOSTLY OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA AT MID MORNING...A SURFACE TROUGH WAS LOCATED THROUGH
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND DOWN THROUGH THE EASTERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE. THIS TROUGH WILL MAKE ITS WAY EAST TODAY AND AS CLOUDS
CLEAR BEHIND THE ONGOING PRECIPITATION...WARMING AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH WILL ALLOW SOME VERY WEAK INSTABILITY TO BUILD ROUGHLY FROM
NORTH CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE
WEAK WITH THE RAP SHOWING 100-200J/KG OF MUCAPE. THIS MAY BE
ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE TROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON SO DID ADD IN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS IN
THOSE AREAS. NO MENTION OF THUNDER AT THE TIME AS THE INSTABILITY
LOOKS TOO WEAK BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THINGS INTO THE AFTERNOON.

RED FLAG WARNING FOR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA REMAINS TO LOOK ON TRACK
AS DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE AREA WITH WINDS INCREASING
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMES FULLY MIXED TO AROUND 700MB THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

TODAY...THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY ACROSS WRN SD AND THE WRN
PNHDL WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD TODAY. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP TO THE
EAT OF THIS TROUGH...MAINLY EAST OF A BASSETT THROUGH BROKEN BOW
LINE BY 15Z. LIKELY POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
BOYD...HOLT...GARFIELD AND WHEELER COUNTY. THIS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
BY LATEST RAP13...HRRR AND 06Z NAM MODELS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY ALSO
DEVELOP ACROSS FAR NRN NEBR THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN AREA OF A VORT
MAX MOVING THROUGH THAT AREA. HIGHS TODAY REMAIN NEAR PREVIOUS
FORECAST REACHING THE LOW TO MID 60S MOST AREAS. EXCEPTION WILL
BE IN FAR EASTERN AREAS WHERE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS
TO HOLD DOWN HIGHS TO THE MID 50S. A FAIRLY STRONG PV ANOMALY
EMERGING FROM NERN CO INTO SWRN NEBR AND NWRN KS THIS MORNING
LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR MIXING DOWN STRONGER WINDS TO THE SURFACE
ACROSS THE SERN PNHDL AND SWRN NEBR INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
NORTHWEST WINDS IN THESE AREAS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 25 TO
35 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. EXPOSED WHEAT FIELDS AND OTHER TILLED
GROUND WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO BLOWING DUST...AND ADDED AREAS OF
BLOWING DUST THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS MET IN PORTIONS OF SWRN NEBR WITH DETAILS HIGHLIGHTED
IN THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION.

TONIGHT...INCREASING CLOUDINESS ACROSS WRN NEBR AS A DISTURBANCE
IN NERN WY WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO NRN NEBR AND FAR SRN SD WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST. LOWS TO FALL MOSTLY INTO THE LOWER 30S. AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE INTO WRN NEBR TONIGHT AS A CLOSED UPPER
LOW SWINGS FROM NORTH DAKOTA INTO NRN MINNESOTA. THIS WILL DROP
H85 TEMPS TO BELOW 0C ACROSS NCTRL NEBR OVERNIGHT. ACROSS THE
WEST COAST...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE IN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE WED MORNING.
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EARLY WILL GIVE WAY TO DECREASING CLOUDS FOR
THE AFTERNOON. MARGINAL ELEVATED LIFT EARLY...HOWEVER DRY
LOWER/MID LEVELS AND FAST MOVING CLIPPER SHOULD KEEP PRECIP FROM
REACHING THE GROUND AND FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE DRY. COLD
ADVECTION FOR THE DAY WITH AND A SLOW START TO WARM UP DUE TO
MORNING CLOUDS SHOULD RESULT IN A COOL DAY...COMPARED TO RECENT.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S...WHICH IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO
NORMAL.

THURSDAY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING A CLIPPER THROUGH THE AREA.
AGAIN CONCERNS WITH LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE...HOWEVER MODELS
BRINGING SOME PACIFIC MOISTURE ROUNDING THE WESTERN RIDGE WHICH
COULD SATURATE TOP DOWN. ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE TEMPS. MORNING
TEMPS BELOW FREEZING WHICH COULD RESULT IN PRECIP STARTING OUT AS
SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX AS CLOUDS INCREASE TEMPS INTO THE 30S. BY
THE AFTERNOON...EVEN WITH THE CLOUDS...MODEL INCREASING TEMPS
INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S. MAYBE OPTIMIST WITH TEMPS...HOWEVER
00Z GUIDANCE HAS ACTUALLY CAME IN WARMER. WONDERING IF THE LACK
OF MOISTURE IS BECOMING MORE OF AN ISSUE RESULTING IN MORE PEAKS
OF SUN AND THE ABILITY TO WARM MORE.

ANY LINGERING PRECIP WILL BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS HELP KEEP TEMPS WARMER IN THE WEST. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE UPPER MISS RVR VALLEY...NOSES INTO NE
NEB WITH SOME CLEARING AND TEMPS COOL INTO THE LOWER 20S FOR N
CENTRAL.

WARM FRONT TO LIFT ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. MODELS IN AGREEMENT
WITH A FASTER TREND OF THE WARM FRONT. THE GFS PRODUCES SOME WARM
ADVECT SHOWERS IN THE MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF N CENTRAL...BUT
ONCE AGAIN MOISTURE DEPRIVED LOWER LEVELS AND HAVE GONE DRY.
MAYBE A FEW SPRINKLES BUT DO NOT THINK IT IS WORTH MENTIONED NOW.

RIDGE EXPANDS FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPS CLIMB WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH
MOST AREAS AT OR ABOVE 70 FOR SAT. FAST MOVING PACIFIC COLD FRONT
OVERNIGHT SAT. ALTHOUGH A COLD FRONT...CLOUDS WILL LIKELY KEEP
TEMPS UP OVERNIGHT...NEAR 40. WILL MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE LIGHT
PRECIP...HOWEVER BEST LIFT TO THE NORTH WITH THE LATEST RUN.
CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT ON SUNDAY AND WINDS HELP MIX THE BL AND TEMPS REBOUND
NICELY. CONTINUED MILD TO START NEXT WEEK AND DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24 HRS AT THE KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS. AN
UPPER TROUGH WILL EXIT THE REGION TODAY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THE STRONGER WINDS WILL OCCUR BY
THIS AFTERNOON AT KLBF WITH WINDS 30016G25KT. WINDS WILL DECOUPLE
BY EARLY THIS EVENING AS SKIES BECOME BROKEN IN MID AND HIGH
CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ACROSS FIRE ZONES 210 AND
219 TODAY...WITH NEAR CRITICAL IN SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF 204 AND
206. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE TO 25 TO 35 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS ZONES 210 AND 219 AS DEWPOINTS IN THESE AREAS
FALL TO 15 TO 20 AND HIGHS REACH THE MID 60S. THIS WILL BRING MIN
RH VALUES OF 12 TO 17 PERCENT. CONTINUATION OF RED FLAG WARNING
FOR ZONES 210 AND 219 IS WARRANTED WITH CLOSE MONITORING IN ZONES
204 AND 206.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ210-219.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BROOKS
SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...ROBERG
FIRE WEATHER...ROBERG







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