Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 132121
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
321 PM CST Mon Feb 13 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 311 PM CST Mon Feb 13 2017

Another quiet 24 hours in store for north central Nebraska. High
pressure will stay situated over the Central Plains keeping
precipitation well south of Nebraska. Overnight low temperatures
will drop into the 20s across the forecast area. Dry weather
continues on Tuesday with northwest winds increasing in the late
morning and afternoon. Wind gusts could reach between 25 and 30
mph across most of the CWA. High temperatures will rise into the
mid 40s across the northern forecast area and near 50 across by
the late afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 311 PM CST Mon Feb 13 2017

The primary forecast highlights are unseasonably warm highs,
peaking Thursday and Friday, that will prompt elevated fire
weather conditions then precipitation chances at the end of the
period. Elevated fire weather conditions are attributable to
afternoon low humidity approaching or decreasing below 20 percent
(Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday). Of which, Thursday is expected
to be the driest day with RH between 15 and 20 percent across
portions of western NEB. Mild and above normal temperatures will
continue in the long term period. Highs peaking roughly 20 to 30
degrees above normal on Thursday with highs then trending slightly
cooler this weekend, albeit still well above normal.

Amplified flow remains over the CONUS in the large scale pattern
with a closed low over the Southern Plains, a ridge extending from
the Pacific Offshore waters near California into the northern High
Plains, and a trough over the Upper Great Lakes and Northeast US.
Of which, the 500 hPa closed low will weaken into an open wave as
it migrates eastward into the Lower Mississippi Valley Tuesday
night. Meanwhile, the ridge will slide gradually eastward moving
to the Southwest US to the Northern Plains Thursday. A Pacific
upper level trough will be moving onshore onto the West Coast
late Thursday. Guidance is in decent agreement in a positive PV
anomaly moving from the West Coast late Thursday to the Central
Great Basin early Friday then reaching the Northern-Central High
Plains Friday afternoon. While the disturbances lifts northeast,
the ridge will undergo some deamplification as it moves eastward
Thursday and Friday. East of the shortwave trough, height rises
will occur as ridging returns over the northern Intermountain
West Friday.

Warmer air will be ushered into western and north central NEB late
Tuesday Night as the ridge shifts eastward with low-level
temperatures staying well above seasonal normal values. 850 hPa
temperatures generally span 10-16 C Thursday and then 8-14 C
Friday, warmest in southwest NEB. Temperatures aloft look to
support highs in the mid to upper 60s Thursday and lower to mid
60s Friday at this time. Deterministic guidance in fair agreement
with 850 temperatures exceeding values over the 90% moving average
for these dates based on SPC sounding climatology for LBF. A
decent signal remains with the NAEFS forecast mean 850 hPa
temperatures with the NAEFS forecast placing significantly above
climatology across NEB, more so Thursday than Friday. Thus
increased confidence in the warm temperatures on Thursday and
Friday.

There are notable differences in the deterministic guidance at the
end of the long term period with respect to phase and amplitude of
the next system. Generally, these differences make the biggest
impact to the forecast and our sensible weather beyond Saturday.
Of which, a weak cold front is expected to advance eastward late
Friday through the region that will prompt cooler highs Saturday,
albeit still above normal. Though this front may affect parts of
northwest NEB on Friday that could affect their highs. No
precipitation is expected Friday Night-Saturday, just increased
sky cover. Chances for precipitation remain in the forecast Sunday
and beyond. However, confidence is low given the aforementioned
uncertainty and model differences with the next system, its
location, and overall timing. Precipitation appears to be
primarily rain with some changeover late Sunday Night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1154 AM CST Mon Feb 13 2017

Aviation conditions are expected to be quiet as high pressure
remains over the region. Some increasing high to mid-level clouds
are possible across KLBF as a system moves across Kansas. No
precipitation is expect to make it into southern Nebraska and
clouds will thin by evening. Northwest winds remain below 10 knots
at KLBF, however, winds could gust up to 20 knots across KVTN
Tuesday morning.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kulik
LONG TERM...ET
AVIATION...Kulik



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