Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 211813
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
213 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY TRACK NORTHWARD ALONG THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD...FROM THE DELMARVA PENINSULA TONIGHT TO THE NEW
ENGLAND COASTLINE BY THE END OF THE WEEK. COOL AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM TIME TO
TIME. SUNSHINE AND INCREASING WARMTH WILL RETURN TO THE REGION
STARTING NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THIS AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DISPLAYS A SHORTWAVE LIFTING
NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK STATE...WITH A SECOND SHORTWAVE
DIGGING ACROSS LAKE ERIE. AT THE SURFACE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
DEEPENING OFF THE JERSEY COASTLINE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A WEAKENING
LOW OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK.

REGIONAL RADARS DISPLAY SCATTERED SHOWERS BREAKING OUT ACROSS WNY
AND DRIFTING SOUTHWARD...WITH LIGHT ACTIVITY FARTHER EASTWARD ACROSS
THE FINGER LAKES AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION...WITH THIS
ACTIVITY DRIFTING NORTHWARD. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. GREATEST CHANCES...AND WHERE LIKELY POPS WILL BE IN
PLACE WILL BE ACROSS THE HILLS SOUTH OF BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER WHERE
AN UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ADD TO THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND SHOWER
COVERAGE AREA. ALSO TONIGHT JUST SOUTH OF THE LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE
AND TOWARDS THE GENESEE VALLEY WHERE A NORTH-NORTHEAST WIND ACROSS
THE LAKE WILL BRING ADDED FRICTIONAL CONVERGENCE TO SUPPORT LIKELY
SHOWERS JUST SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND THROUGH THE GENESEE VALLEY
WHICH WILL LIE CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW.

WITH RICH MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW
AREAS OF DRIZZLE WILL BE AROUND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING. THIS MOISTURE WILL ALSO BRING LOW CLOUDS AND SOME
PATCHY FOG TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW NYS AND ALSO THE TUG HILL
REGION.

TOMORROW THE DIGGING SHORTWAVE THIS AFTERNOON WILL FORM A CUTOFF LOW
NEAR VIRGINIA WITH A SURFACE LOW IN CLOSE PROXIMITY. COOL NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW WITH CLOUDS REMAINING
THICK. DAYTIME MIXING SHOULD END THE AREAS OF DRIZZLE BY MID MORNING
THOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE. GREATEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
WILL BE ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER AND SOUTHERN GENESEE
VALLEY WHICH WILL LIE CLOSEST TO THE SURFACE LOW...AND SPOKES OF
ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSE LOW.

WITH THICK CLOUD COVER TEMPERATURES WILL NOT HAVE A GREAT RANGE.
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S WILL LOWER TO THE LOW
TO MID 40S TONIGHT. TOMORROW WITH COOLING ALOFT...OUR TEMPERATURES
WILL STRUGGLE TO TOP THE 50 DEGREE MARK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND TOWARDS CAPE
COD THROUGH THE PERIOD. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS LARGE SYSTEM
WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST AND MAINTAIN AN ABUNDANT FLOW
OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION THAT WILL BE COMPOUNDED BY
NORTHERLY SYNOPTIC FLOW OFF THE GREAT LAKES TO PRODUCE AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF DREARY FALL WEATHER ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW
YORK. THE LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL BE MOST ACUTE SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW AND MOISTURE ADVECTION OFF THE LAKE WILL
BE MOST PERSISTENT WHILE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA NOT
SUBJECT TO THE NORTHERLY ONSHORE/UPSLOPE FLOW OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO
SHOULD SEE PERIODS OF SHOWERS GIVEN THE CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE LOW
CENTER AND DEEPER SYNOPTIC MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND
THE UPPER LOW CENTER.

AS WE PROGRESS FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...THE PROBABILITY OF
ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION WILL DROP OFF SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AS THE LOW OFF THE EAST COAST DRIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE DECLINES CONSIDERABLY...HOWEVER
MOISTURE WILL STILL BE PLENTIFUL ENOUGH IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE TO MAINTAIN AN EXTENSIVE COVERAGE OF LOW STRATUS ALONG
WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK.
THE AREAS THAT HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT STAYING DRY ON
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAR SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK...FARTHEST
REMOVED FROM THE SYNOPTIC MOISTURE AS WELL AS THE INFLUENCE OF LAKE
ONTARIO.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL RUN ON THE COOL SIDE
COURTESY OF THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS WELL AS THE
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVERAGE THAT WILL BLANKET THE REGION. THIS WILL
SIGNIFICANTLY MITIGATE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER TO THE MID 40S NEAR THE LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WE SHOULD SEE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT BY THE WEEKEND AS THE COASTAL LOW
OFF NEW ENGLAND LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARDS ATLANTIC CANADA...TAKING
WITH IT THE BULK OF THE SYNOPTIC MOISTURE. THERE WILL STILL BE A
DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO
CONTEND WITH ON FRIDAY AS THE LOW IS PULLING AWAY FROM THE
REGION...HOWEVER WE SHOULD SEE TREND TOWARDS WARMER AND DRIER
WEATHER OVER THE COMING WEEKEND. THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT CONTINUES
TO BE A POTENT SHORTWAVE DROPPING ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST TERRITORIES. THE ECMWF BRINGS THIS SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND COOL AIR PERILOUSLY CLOSE TO WESTERN/NORTHERN
NEW YORK SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE FEATURE WELL TO OUR
NORTH ACROSS QUEBEC AND THE GEM SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE...WHICH IS THE
TACK THIS FORECAST WILL TAKE...GOING WITH LOW CHANCE POPS AND
TEMPERATURES THAT WILL RUN JUST A HAIR ON THE COOL SIDE OF AVERAGE
FOR LATE OCTOBER.

AS WE OPEN THE COMING WEEK...MODELS COME BACK INTO GOOD AGREEMENT IN
BRINGING A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE MIDWEST WITH A
SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE RIDGE REFLECTED ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND
THE NORTHEAST. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN...WAIT FOR
IT...SUNSHINE...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING AT LEAST INTO THE
60S BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT AND LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW AT 18Z WILL
YIELD IFR/MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND DEVELOPING DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF
THE TAF PERIOD.

TO START THE TAF PERIOD...SOME IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE FOUND NEAR
LAKE ONTARIO...WITH MVFR AND SOME VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS FARTHER
SOUTHWARD. AS THE NORTHERLY FLOW SPREADS LOW CLOUDS AND ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE FARTHER SOUTHWARD MVFR AND IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
ACROSS KBUF...AND LATER KJHW. GREATEST DURATION OF IFR WILL LIKELY
BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER WHERE A UPSLOPE FLOW WITH MAINTAIN AREAS
OF DRIZZLE AND LOW CLOUDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING
HOURS TOMORROW.

LARGELY MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS KART...THOUGH
SOME PATCHY IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

WITH DAYTIME MIXING THE LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE SHOULD
IMPROVE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. MVFR AND SOME VFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS WILL CLOSE OUT THE LAST 3-6 HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AREAS OF MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN...
RAIN LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NY.
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO THIS MORNING FEATURES A
PERIOD OF RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS RIGHT NEAR THE LOW CENTER.

NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON LAKE ONTARIO TODAY...THEN INCREASE
FURTHER TO AROUND 25 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
QUICKLY TIGHTENS BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. THIS WILL BRING HIGHER
END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE
ONTARIO THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO
INCREASE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON LAKE
ERIE THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
         THURSDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
         LOZ042-043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...SMITH







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