Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KBUF 011149
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
749 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEK. A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BRING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...BUT OTHERWISE IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH SUMMERLIKE WARMTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING
WORKING TOGETHER WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO TRAP LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE. KBUF 12Z RAOB SHOWS NEARLY SATURATED
PROFILE FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH 2KFT THEN DRY ABOVE THAT.

HIGH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND
CLOSER TO 60 ELSEWHERE ALONG WITH LIGHT/CALM WINDS ARE CONTRIBUTING
TO AREAS OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS LINGERING AT NEAR 8AM ACROSS NEARLY
THE ENTIRE AREA. DENSE FOG IS BEING REPORTED AT KIAG AND ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER BUT IS CONSIDERED FAIRLY PATCHY BASED ON SURFACE OBS
AND PEEKING AT AREA WEBCAMS. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 930AM FOR NORTHERN ERIE AND NIAGARA COUNTIES WITH A
SEPARATE STATEMENT ALSO IN EFFECT UNTIL 930AM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER TO COVER FOR THE PATCHY DENSE FOG.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING LOW CLOUDS EXTEND ACROSS A WIDE
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. OBS BENEATH THE LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
SHOW REDUCED 1-2 MILE VISIBILITY. SITES WITH A BIT MORE WIND ARE
FAVORING THE STRATUS OVER FOG SUCH AS AT KBUF.

THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TO ERODE BY MID MORNING AS
DAYTIME MIXING BREAKS THE SURFACE INVERSION. AFTERNOON SUNSHINE AND
850MB TEMPS IN THE UPPER TEENS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID
DAY TODAY. HAVE TAKEN BACK TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST BASED ON NEWER 00Z GUIDANCE AND STEEP INVERSION RIGHT AT
850MB WHICH MAY PREVENT THE FULL MIXING OF WARMER AIR ALOFT TO THE
SURFACE. HIGHS NOW FORECAST IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

ANOTHER STEAMY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH NO CHANGE IN AIRMASS.
MODELS ARE A LITTLE LESS BULLISH ON LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING
BENEATH THE INVERSION SO FOG/LOW CLOUDS MAY NOT BE QUITE AS
EXTENSIVE AS THEY ARE THIS MORNING BUT HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FOG IN
THE FORECAST. LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S NEAR THE LAKES TO
UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE THIS EVENING WITH JUST A FEW MINOR COSMETIC
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST GRIDS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. MAIN
STORY WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WORKING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT WARM AND HUMID AIR FROM THE
DEEP SOUTH NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO RISE TO AROUND +20C WHICH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IS 1 TO
2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.

THIS WILL ALL TRANSLATE INTO A CONTINUATION OF MAINLY DRY...WARM AND
HUMID WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. SURFACE HIGHS WILL RISE
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH 90 POSSIBLE IN THE GENESEE VALLEY
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS NOT PROVIDING MUCH RELIEF ONLY SLIPPING BACK
INTO THE 60S.

12Z MODELS SHOW A SUBTLE 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH MAY WORK
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE LATER WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SOME ISOLATED STORMS INN OUR
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS. ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS WOULD LIKELY BE
ELEVATED AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AND ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ABOVE A
700MB INVERSION. HAVE COVERED THIS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AS LAKE INFLUENCES WOULD NOT BE A FACTOR IN
ELEVATED CONVECTION.

LATEST MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
CROSSING SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO THURSDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSES SOUTH ACROSS QUEBEC. ISOLATED CONVECTION CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT WITH MODEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPING INLAND FROM
THE LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
12Z MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE AXIS OF THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD DIRECTLY ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES AND NEW YORK STATE. WITH OUR AIRMASS THUS LIKELY TO BE
STRONGLY CAPPED...WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE MAINLY DRY WEATHER
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HEATING CYCLE.

OTHERWISE...THE DOMINANT RIDGING WILL LEAD TO MIDSUMMER-LIKE
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY CONTINUING ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS AGAIN AVERAGING IN THE MID 80S...AND NIGHTTIME LOWS MAINLY
RANGING IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FIRMLY IN CONTROL ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
TRAPPING MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE. AREAS OF IFR AND LOWER FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS LINGER NEAR 12Z. ANY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE BY
14-16Z THIS MORNING LEAVING SUNNY VFR SKIES GOING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. TONIGHT SIMILAR CONDITIONS SHOULD LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND
OF PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS AGAIN AFTER 6Z.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR IN PATCHY FOG.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE
UPCOMING WEEK. HIGH DEWPOINT AIR OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP AREAS OF
FOG IN PLACE AT LEAST EACH MORNING. PREVAILING SW FLOW WILL ENHANCE
LAKE BREEZES IN THE AFTERNOONS...PRODUCING A LIGHT CHOP ON THE
EASTERN ENDS OF THE LAKES...HOWEVER WINDS/WAVES WILL REMAIN 12
KNOTS/2FT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK/TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...FRANKLIN/SMITH



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.