Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 072344
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
744 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION...RESULTING IN WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS
WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING LINE OF SCATTERED CONVECTION WHICH PRODUCED
A COUPLE OF SEVERE WIND REPORTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER CONTINUING
TO PUSH OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. STILL COULD SEE AN ISOLATED STRONGER
STORM THE NEXT HOUR ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER...BEFORE ENTIRE LINE
EXITS THE AREA BY 7 PM. ANOTHER AREA OF SCATTERED CONVECTION
ACROSS ONTARIO DROPPING SOUTHEAST...BUT THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE
CHANCE OF SURVIVING AS IT MOVES INTO STABLE LAKE SHADOWS. ONCE THE
CONVECTION ENDS THIS EVENING...EXPECT A BREEZY AND MUGGY REST OF
THE NIGHT.

TUESDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE WHAT COULD BE AN INTERESTING DAY FOR
MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. SPC INCLUDES THE BULK
OF WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. ANOTHER FRONT IS DEVELOP
EARLY TUESDAY ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN AND TRACK EAST REACHING WRN
NEW YORK LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WITH MLCAPES OF 1500-2000 J/KG REACHING WRN
NY BY THE AFTERNOON. HAVE INCLUDED THE POSSIBILITY OF NOT ONLY
HEAVY RAINS BUT GUSTY WINDS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING TIME FRAME.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...EXPECT A WARM ALBEIT MUGGY NIGHT TONIGHT WITH
TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID 60S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH
COUNTRY TO THE UPPER 70S NIAGARA FRONTIER AND FINGER LAKES REGION.
ON TUESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY EVENING AN AMPLIFYING MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES WILL ACCELERATE A STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS THE
AREA. BY EARLY EVENING THE COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE
FINGER LAKES AND CENTRAL NY...TAKING THE GREATEST RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH IT. THERE WILL STILL BE A SEVERE RISK INTO
THE EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE REGION. THE QUALITY OF DYNAMICS AND SHEAR SUGGEST AN
ORGANIZED RISK OF SEVERE IF ENOUGH PRE-FRONTAL INSTABILITY IS
REALIZED. THE PRIMARY RISK WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
WITH THE STRONGER STORMS AND ANY BOWING SEGMENTS WHICH DEVELOP. IF A
FRONTAL WAVE MATERIALIZES AS SHOWN IN SOME MESOSCALE MODEL
GUIDANCE...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL SHEAR TO
SUPPORT A FEW SUPERCELLS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO...AS
SUGGESTED IN THE DAY 2 OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FROM SPC.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL END FROM WEST TO
EAST...FIRST BY EARLY TO MID EVENING ACROSS WESTERN NY AND BY LATE
EVENING FARTHER EAST. THIS SHOULD LEAVE A DRY PERIOD OVERNIGHT AS
DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE FRONT BUILD INTO THE LOWER LAKES.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE MAIN MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
SLOWLY FROM THE UPPER LAKES EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC...SPREADING ANOTHER ROUND OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACROSS OUR
REGION. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED ALONG AN ASSOCIATED WEAK SECONDARY
COLD FRONT...BUT THE COMBINATION OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND MODEST
INSTABILITY AND CONVERGENCE MAY ALLOW A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE SHOULD
REMAIN WIDELY SCATTERED IN NATURE WITH THE BULK OF THE DAY RAIN FREE
IN MOST LOCATIONS. ANY SHOWERS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST LATER
WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AS TEMPS ALOFT CONTINUE TO COOL BEHIND
THE FIRST FRONT. EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH THE UPPER 70S AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

THURSDAY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL LAKES.
THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER AND A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE.
850MB TEMPS ARE ONLY AROUND +10C...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID 70S
AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND AROUND 70 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE LOWER LAKES FRIDAY WITH
MORE SUNSHINE AND DRY WEATHER. THE AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE
WITH HIGHS VERY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR MID SUMMER. ON SATURDAY BOTH
THE ECMWF AND GFS SUGGEST A WEAK PLUME OF MOISTURE HEADING NORTH OUT
OF THE OHIO VALLEY OR MID ATLANTIC. THIS MAY ALLOW A FEW WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP MAINLY INLAND FROM THE LAKES IF IT WERE
TO MATERIALIZE...BUT GIVEN THE WEAKNESS OF THE FEATURE FOR NOW HAVE
LEFT THE FORECAST DRY.

MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK
WITH A VARIETY OF TIMING AND TRACK DIFFERENCES REGARDING A
SEASONABLY STRONG CUTOFF LOW OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES IN ADDITION
TO MORE SUBTLE CONVECTIVE FEATURES OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. GIVEN THE
MODEL UNCERTAINTY...FOR NOW HAVE INCLUDED CHANCE POPS FOR BOTH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY GIVEN THE MODEL SPREAD. IT WILL BECOME WARM AND
MUGGY AGAIN AT LEAST FOR A FEW DAYS AS DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA CUTOFF LOW. ONCE THAT CUTOFF MOVES
CLOSER...IT APPEARS WE WILL SEE ANOTHER TREND TOWARDS COOLER
TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO WIND DOWN THIS EVENING WITH
ALL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ENDING BY 03Z. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION WHERE BRIEF RESTRICTIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL
DIMINISH AFTER 03Z.

LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN MVFR/IFR CIGS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER LATER TONIGHT.

ON TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT AFTN CU WILL RESULT
IN MAINLY MVFR CONDS. BOTH THIS AFTN/EVENING AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THE AREA REMAINS IN SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BELOW SCA LEVELS TONIGHT HOWEVER ANOTHER
ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ON LAKE
ERIE FROM LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER LOW
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...SHARPENING THAT
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AGAIN. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME APPROACHING SEVERE LEVELS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS SYSTEM TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS WELL. LOOK FOR A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY EVENING FOLLOWED BY A
PERIOD OF MORE PLACID CONDITIONS ON THE LAKE FOR THE LATTER
PORTION OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ030-042-043.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LEVAN
NEAR TERM...LEVAN/TMA
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...LEVAN/TMA
MARINE...LEVAN




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