Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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500
FXUS61 KBUF 131935
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
235 PM EST Sat Jan 13 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Light lake effect snow showers will persist southeast of the lakes
tonight before ending Sunday morning as high pressure builds into
the eastern Great Lakes. A clipper system will bring some light snow
to the region late Monday through Tuesday night. Temperatures will
remain well below normal through Monday before slowly returning to
near average late next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The synoptic snow has rapidly ended east of Lake Ontario. Cold
northwest flow will continue to support limited lake effect snow
showers through the rest of the afternoon and tonight. A rapidly
drying airmass combined with lake induced equilibrium levels around
6K feet will keep this activity light.

Off Lake Erie...

There is a sizable area of open water northwest of Chautauqua
County, enough to produce scattered light snow showers through the
rest of the afternoon and tonight. The upstream Lake Huron
connection will remain west of the area across NE Ohio and NW PA
through this evening, but overnight this may reach Chautauqua County
briefly as boundary layer flow backs a little. Even so, expect a
spotty dusting to an inch of accumulation at most. What remains of
the lake effect snow showers will end Sunday morning as a surface
high builds across Lake Erie and boundary layer flow becomes light
and variable.

Off Lake Ontario...

The northwest flow will maintain a spray of multiple bands along
much of the south shore from Niagara to Oswego counties, and
extending south across the NY Thruway at times this afternoon
through tonight. In general, expect additional accumulations of less
than an inch this afternoon, and a dusting to an inch tonight. There
may be a small corridor along the lakeshore from Orleans County to
Wayne county that picks up an additional 1-2 inches locally tonight
where the snow is a little more persistent. All of this will
contract back towards the lakeshore late tonight, and end Sunday
morning as high pressure builds over Lake Ontario and boundary layer
flow becomes light and variable.

Outside of the lake effect, expect partial clearing this afternoon
and tonight with temperatures well below normal. Temperatures will
remain steady in the low to mid teens at lower elevations and single
numbers higher terrain this afternoon. Expect lows in the low single
digits tonight on the lake plains of Western NY and single digits
below zero farther inland. Lows will likely drop to 20 below zero or
lower east of Lake Ontario.

Following the end of the lake effect flurries and light snow showers
Sunday morning, expect some sunshine as high pressure drifts
overhead and east of the area. Temperatures will remain well below
normal, with mid teens in most areas and single numbers east of Lake
Ontario.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Broad high pressure with origins from the Canadian Prairies will
stretch from Central Quebec south to the Gulf Coast Sunday night.
The center of this high will shift from northern New England into
Quebec through Monday. Mainly clear skies within the dry continental
airmass will promote another very chilly night Sunday night.
Overnight lows will dip down to between the low single digits above
zero to negative single digits in the interior western Southern Tier
and North Country. Winds will be fairly light in these cooler
locations but could be just high enough for another round of
advisory level wind chills.

The center of a mid-level low is forecast to dip over the western
Great Lakes through Monday while forcing a clipper-type low to form.
Medium range guidance remains in good agreement showing dry weather
most of the day Monday with the clipper low beginning to push some
widespread light snow into western NY later Monday supported by warm
advection ahead of the low. The weak low will likely cross western
and central NY Monday night into Tuesday. Not expecting a
significant snowfall from the clipper but could be enough to make a
tricky Tuesday morning commute. A general 2-3 inches is most likely
due to the dryness of the airmass. Wind gusts behind the low center
will reach above 20 mph later Tuesday which could bring some blowing
and drifting of freshly fallen snow. High temps on Monday and
Tuesday should be able to reach into the 20s each day. Lows will dip
into the teens Monday night.

By Tuesday night, the GFS/EC show the low will transfer from north
of Lake Ontario to just off the coast of New England. There looks to
be a chance for some scattered snow showers in the wake of the low.
These could blend with then transition to a chance of some weak low
topped lake snows in southwest veering to northwest flow behind the
departing low as 850mb temps dip toward -18C. Lows are forecast to
dip into the teens and single digits Tuesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Generally benign conditions can be expected during this period...as
our region should be just out of the reach of a potentially
significant coastal storm system. The largest impacts for our region
will be a two day reinforcing shot of colder air on the backside of
the storm...and some nuisance light snow over the Eastern Lake
Ontario region.

As we push into Friday...the storm system should be exiting across
the Canadian maritimes while warm advection will begin over our
forecast area. After a pair of days when temperatures will average 5
degrees below normal...the mercury is forecast to climb back to
normal to end the week.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Lake effect snow showers will continue southeast of the lakes this
afternoon and tonight with areas of IFR VSBY and MVFR CIGS. KROC
will be impacted the most by this activity, and also KJHW at times.
KART will remain VFR with northwest winds keeping lake effect snow
showers away from that airfield. KBUF and KIAG will be near the
western edge of lake effect snow showers off Lake Ontario, with
mostly MVFR conditions.

Any remaining lake effect snow showers will end Sunday morning as
high pressure builds over the eastern Great Lakes. This will leave
VFR to prevail for the rest of the day.

Outlook...

Monday thru Tuesday Night...Light snow likely with areas of IFR.
Wednesday and Thursday...A chance of snow showers with spotty MVFR
to IFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Moderate northwesterlies will continue to produce Small Craft Advisory
conditions along the south shore of Lake Ontario through this
evening before subsiding overnight as high pressure builds into the
eastern Great Lakes. Winds will remain relatively light through
Monday, then increase again by Tuesday as a clipper system crosses
the eastern Great Lakes.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Wind Chill Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Sunday
     for NYZ007-008-012-020-021.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Sunday for LOZ042>044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK



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