Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 262205
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
605 PM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS SOUTH AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDINESS ELSEWHERE WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SUNSHINE MONDAY
ALONG WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES.  THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY. THE WARM WEATHER WILL
COME TO AN ABRUPT AND POTENTIALLY STORMY END TUESDAY EVENING AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION...USHERING IN MUCH COLDER
WEATHER BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LATEST LOOK AT RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT LAKE EFFECT SHOWER
ACTIVITY SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY OVER
THE LAST HOUR OR SO. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS AS INVERSION LEVELS CONTINUE TO FALL IN THE FACE
OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FROM THE WEST AND
ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION/SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. CLOUD COVER WILL
DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK ACCORDINGLY
TONIGHT AND THIS CLEARING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE
30S WEST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY OVERNIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL BE SLOWER
TO ERODE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE COOL AIR
ALOFT WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...AND IRONICALLY THIS
WILL YIELD WARMER LOWS THAT SHOULD RUN IN THE LOW TO MID 40S WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE TUG HILL WHERE READINGS WILL RUN IN THE UPPER
30S.

SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD AND THE COMBINATION OF INSOLATION AND WARM ADVECTION SHOULD
YIELD A PLEASANT DAY WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND HIGHS IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW
YORK LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY NIGHT THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT BROUGHT A FAIR WEATHER
DAY TO THE REGION MONDAY WILL SLIDE EASTWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
RETURN TO SOUTHERLY...AND INCREASING MOIST FLOW. MEANWHILE TO OUR
WEST AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DEVELOPING AS IT ADVANCE
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE MIDWEST TOWARDS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. A
WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD FROM THIS LOW WILL REACH TOWARDS OUR
WESTERN AREAS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

A MOIST LIFT ACROSS THIS WARM FRONT WILL PROVIDE FOR A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS. ANY RAIN SHOWERS THAT DO FORM WILL FALL LARGELY AROUND LAKE
ONTARIO WHERE THE WARM FRONT WILL LIE OVERNIGHT. WITH THE SOUTHERLY
WINDS A MILD NIGHT IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT WITH WESTERN NEW YORK IN
THE LOWER 50S...WHILE MID TO UPPER 40S WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY TO THE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT.

THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST WILL CUT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND TOWARDS JAMES BAY BY TUESDAY NIGHT. A
COLD FRONT FROM THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS OUR REGION LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT TUESDAY. THE CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
VORTICITY AND HEIGHT FALLS...AND ALSO SURFACE LOW CENTER WILL BE
PASSING WELL TO OUR NORTH THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. WHILE THERE WILL
BE COLD AIR ADVECTION THIS COLD FRONT IS NOT OVERLY SHARP. STILL
THIS FRONT WILL PROVIDE RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM...WITH THE
SHOWERS ARRIVING ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK IN THE AFTERNOON AND THEN
SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SUPPORTED BY STEEPENING LAPSE RATES IN
ADDITION TO MODEST FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR SBCAPE OF SEVERAL HUNDRED
J/KG. OF CONCERN WILL BE A LOW LEVEL JET OF 40 TO 45 KNOTS JUST 1-2K
FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE. IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS DO FORM...THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY THAT SOME GUSTY WINDS MAY BE BROUGHT DOWN TO THE
SURFACE.

THE SHOWERS WILL NOT BE THE ONLY STORY FOR TUESDAY. THERE WILL ALSO
BE GUSTY SYNOPTIC WINDS AND NEAR RECORD WARMTH.

FOR THE WINDS...A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH A DEEPENING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING WELL TO OUR NORTH AND WEST WILL BRING
GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY. EXPECT THE STRONGEST OF
GUSTS TO BE TOWARDS LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS WNY WHEN
OR SURFACE WINDS ALIGN WITH THE 950 HPA WINDS. THERE WILL BE A
LITTLE MORE WIND SHEAR EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY AND HERE DO NOT
EXPECT AS STRONG OF WIND GUSTS. SOUTHWEST WINDS FUNNELING UP LAKE
ERIE MAY GUST 30 TO 45 MPH ACROSS THE LAKE SHORE...AND INLAND ACROSS
THE NORTHERN NIAGARA FRONTIER AND MONROE COUNTRY. ELSEWHERE WIND
GUSTS 25 TO 35 MPH WILL BE COMMON.

FOR THE TEMPERATURES...SUNSHINE COMBINED WITH MILD SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL BRING THE WARMEST DAY THIS WEEK...WITH HIGHS LARGELY IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S ACROSS THE REGION. WITH 850 HPA TEMPERATURES NEAR 10 TO
12C...AND MIXING HEIGHTS NEARING 5K FEET...RECORDS FOR TUESDAY
SHOULD BE NEARED...OR POSSIBLY ECLIPSED. THESE RECORDS INCLUDE THE
FOLLOWING...BUFFALO...74/1946...ROCHESTER...76/1984...AND WATERTOWN
75/1984.

RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PASS EASTWARD TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY TIME AS A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT FOLLOWS. THE BULK
OF THE RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD BE EAST OF THE CWA BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AN INCREASINGLY COLDER AIRMASS
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS TO FORM. ACTIVITY
STARTING OFF LAKE ERIE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
MAY REACH AS FAR NORTH AS THE SOUTHERN BUFFALO SUBURBS AS WINDS
REMAIN 240/250 BEHIND THE FRONT. SIMILARLY EARLY WEDNESDAY A
RESPONSE WILL OCCUR OFF LAKE ONTARIO ON 240/250 FLOW. THIS WILL
BRING SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN TO NEAR WATERTOWN...IN ADDITION TO THE
NORTHERN TUG HILL REGION. WINDS SHOULD VEER TOWARDS WESTERLY THROUGH
THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL PUSH THE LAKE
EFFECT RAIN BANDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS SKI COUNTRY AND THE SOUTHERN TIER
OFF LAKE ERIE...AND THE TUG HILL AND THEN LATER SE OF LAKE ONTARIO.

HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY...NOTICEABLY COLDER THAN TUESDAY WILL STILL
MANAGE TO NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S THROUGH THE
DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL BEGIN THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH A RIDGE OVER
WESTERN NORTH AMERICA...AND A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
NORTH AMERICA. THIS RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST WILL BE BUILT UP IN PART
DUE TO THE REMNANTS...AND ASSOCIATED ENERGY OF THE FORMER HURRICANE
ANA FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC. THIS UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BE ONE
THAT FAVORS COLDER AIR FLOWING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM NW CANADA...AND
DOWN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

TO SIMPLY SUM THIS TIME PERIOD...OUR AIR TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN NEAR
NORMAL (THURSDAY) AND PROGRESSIVELY FALL TO BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD (SUNDAY). MORNING 12Z SOUNDINGS ACROSS NORTHERN CANADA
CONFIRM THIS -20C 850 HPA AIRMASS...ONE THAT WILL MODIFY AS IT DROPS
SOUTHWARD...BUT STILL REMAIN COLD ENOUGH THAT A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
COULD BE POSSIBLE BY THE CLOSE OF THIS WEEKEND.

TO START THIS TIME PERIOD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE FOUND OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY WITH COLD 850 HPA AIR OF -2 TO -4C FLOWING OVER OUR
REGION. THOUGH AMBIENT MOISTURE MAY BE LACKING SOME...THERE SHOULD
STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN SUPPLY THAT LAKE EFFECT RAIN BANDS WILL
BE FORMING...VERY LIGHT EAST OF LAKE ERIE...WHILE FARTHER AWAY FROM
THE DRY SURFACE HIGH...SOMEWHAT STRONGER SOUTHEAST AND EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO. THIS ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN SOME FRIDAY WITH THE ADDITION OF
WIND SHEAR AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA AND TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS TROUGH WILL
BRING A COOLER AIRMASS...BUT ITS DAYTIME ARRIVAL ON FRIDAY SHOULD
KEEP JUST CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS. HOWEVER AS THE BASE OF THIS
TROUGH CROSSES US FRIDAY NIGHT...AND DAYTIME HEATING FADES WE SHOULD
SEE A CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN...TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW...AND
POSSIBLY JUST PLAIN SNOW SHOWERS. BY THIS TIME MUCH OF THE
MOISTURE WILL BE TO OUR EAST SO NOT LOOKING FOR ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT
AS FAR AS QPF GOES...THOUGH MEASURABLE SNOW ACROSS AT LEAST THE HILL
TOPS IS QUITE POSSIBLE. ALSO WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE SE OF LAKE ONTARIO FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY WITH ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.

THIS SHARP COLD TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THE BACK EDGE OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH MAY
LINGER A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE DRIER AIR AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILD EASTWARD SUNDAY. THE ADDED SUNSHINE
SUNDAY WILL LIKELY MAKE THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEKEND NOT AS
COLD.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD ADVECTION ON GUSTY WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS CONTINUING TO
GENERATE WIDESPREAD LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SHOWERS EAST AND
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. CIGS ARE GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR CIGS
AROUND 2500FT OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX BY THIS EVENING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO
DIMINISH. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY ERODE FROM THE WEST AND ANY
LINGERING LAKE-EFFECT SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MONDAY MORNING AS
HIGH MOVES INTO THE REGION WITH WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.
TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS EAST OF THE LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
ALTHOUGH GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS...THE
COMBINATION OF A RELAXING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND INCREASING WARM
ADVECTION AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL
ALLOW FOR WINDS TO DIMINISH QUICKLY ON LAKE ERIE...AND LATER
TONIGHT ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. NONETHELESS...WAVES WILL TAKE SEVERAL
HOURS TO SUBSIDE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS WITH THE LAST
ADVISORY ON SOUTHEAST LAKE ONTARIO NOT SLATED TO EXPIRE UNTIL
MONDAY MORNING.

TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON THE LAKES AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD ON MONDAY BEFORE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF AN
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP THE BULK OF THE WAVE ACTION CONFINED TO
CANADIAN WATERS BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
FRESHENING WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT LIKELY RESULTING IN
ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK.


WINDS WILL FRESHEN ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WOOD
NEAR TERM...WOOD
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...WOOD







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