Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 230000
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
800 PM EDT MON AUG 22 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will shift over Pennsylvania through tonight...
then will slowly drift east and off the Atlantic coastline through
midweek. This feature will provide our region with fair and dry
weather through midweek...with refreshingly cooler temperatures
tonight giving way to building heat Tuesday and Wednesday. Another
cold front will then ease its way across the region later in the
week along with another round of showers and
thunderstorms...before fair weather returns in time for next
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure centered over eastern Ohio early this evening will
maintain fair and cooler weather through tonight. Diurnal clouds
will dissipate near sunset with mainly clear skies expected. Light
winds and valley moisture will build late tonight with river valley
fog expected across the Southern Tier. Tonight will be a great night
to sleep with the windows open. Low temperatures will range from the
upper 40s across the higher terrain to the mid to upper 50s across
lower elevations and closer to the shores of Lakes Erie and Ontario.

It will be a mostly sunny and a bit warmer on Tuesday as a return
south to southwesterly flow sets up on the westerly flank of the
departing High. Some mid high clouds will drift by mainly over or
north of Lake Ontario where a jet and moisture plume will track.
Expect high temperatures to climb a bit to the middle 70s to lower
80s, some lower 70s mainly across the Tug Hill.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Surface high pressure will continue to gradually slide east of the
forecast area during the first half of the period. This will yield
fair skies for Wednesday night with light winds setting the stage
for valley fog in the Southern Tier. Increasing warm advection will
keep temperatures from being quite as cool as Monday night, with
lows ranging from the mid to upper 50s in the sheltered valleys of
the Southern Tier to the mid 60s along the lakeshores.

The fair skies will persist through Wednesday as upper level ridging
crests over the region, however temperatures will climb
precipitously back towards mid-summer readings as mid-level ridging
gives way to strengthening southwesterly flow out of the flattened
base of a trough approaching the region. This will advect
increasingly warm air into Western and North-Central New York,
boosting temperatures into the mid to upper 80s once again. As this
troughing approaches the region Wednesday night, the forecast area
will become increasingly exposed to return flow and GOMEX moisture,
ensuring a very sticky night with lows only falling into the low to
mid 70s for most areas.

With a humid, summerlike airmass once again inundating the region,
the potential for showers and thunderstorms will increase through
the day on Thursday as surface pre-frontal troughing approaches the
region. With a lack of solid agreement on timing/placement of
obvious synoptic triggers, but agreement that the airmass will be
moist and unstable across virtually all of the forecast area, have
opted for scattered shower/thunderstorm wording and 50 pops for the
time being during the obvious afternoon/early evening on Thursday.
These higher pops will push off to the east Thursday night as
cooler and drier air oozes into the region behind a poorly defined
cold front. The more extensive cloud cover Thursday will keep highs
limited to the mid 80s, though surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to
around 70 will still make it feel thoroughly unpleasant for many.
Likewise, lows in the mid to upper 60s will provide little relief
Thursday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Cooler and drier air will advect southeast across Western and North
Central New York behind the cold Front. Any lingering showers will
quickly diminish from Northwest to Southeast Friday morning with
gradual clearing skies behind the front. Otherwise, with 850H
temperatures cooling from +16 to +11 highs will likely peak in the
U70s across the higher terrain to the L80s across the lake plains
Friday. Fair and dry weather will dominate our forecast area as
surface high pressure gradually drifts eastward from the Upper Great
Lakes across the Lower Lakes providing fine August weather over the
weekend. Temperature wise, after a cool start Saturday highs will
top out in the U70s/L80s, then a gradual warming trend occurs
through Monday. Monday looks right now unsettled with a likely
return to the heat and humidity with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms as moisture gets drawn up across the region.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure over eastern Ohio will maintain VFR conditions across
most of the region tonight and Tuesday. The only exception to the
VFR conditions will be across the Southern Tier later tonight...
where developing valley fog will lead to areas of IFR/LIFR in fog
and low clouds including KJHW. This isolated inclement flight
condition will last through the early daylight hours, then VFR
conditions will return for the entire forecast area after 12Z.

Outlook...
Tuesday night...mainly VFR but river valley fog again
possible in the Southern Tier.
Wednesday...VFR.
Thursday...Mainly VFR with scattered afternoon and nighttime showers
and thunderstorms, becoming more numerous Thursday night. MVFR/IFR
in thunderstorms.
Friday and Saturday...mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Building high pressure will keep lighter winds and lower waves
through midweek. Southwesterly winds will increase ahead of a cold
front with waves building on the northern shores of the lakes. Small
craft advisories may be needed Thursday/Thursday night. Westerly
winds behind the front will keep choppy conditions on Friday then
High pressure builds across the region Friday through the weekend.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH/WCH
NEAR TERM...SMITH/WCH
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...SMITH/WCH
MARINE...SMITH/WCH



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