Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 281443
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
943 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TODAY BRINGING FAIR WEATHER AND
FULL SUNSHINE. ON THURSDAY AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS NEW
YORK LEAVING A FEW INCHES OF WIDESPREAD SNOW. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN LATER FRIDAY AND CROSS THE STATE SATURDAY. ON
SUNDAY A DEEPENING LOW WILL BRING A THREAT FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW
INTO MONDAY. ARCTIC AIR WILL FOLLOW WITH BLUSTERY CONDITIONS AND
LOCALIZED LAKE EFFECT SNOWS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST TO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA TODAY MAKING FOR A
VERY PLEASANT LATE JANUARY DAY ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION
WITH FULL SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY RISING TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF
20. THE TUG HILL MAY BE THE ONLY EXCEPTION REMAINING IN THE LOW
TEENS.

TONIGHT THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PASSES ACROSS EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA
WITH SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING NORTH ACROSS NEW YORK TO QUEBEC.
CLEAR SKIES IN THE EVENING WILL AGAIN ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL OFF
QUICKLY. AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND ARRIVAL OF CLOUD COVER
ALOFT AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO OUR WEST LATER OVERNIGHT
SHOULD HELP KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES A LITTLE WARMER THAN WHAT WE ARE
SEEING THIS MORNING BUT NOT BY MUCH. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SOME FLURRIES ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK BEFORE DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY/SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW YORK STATE THURSDAY NIGHT. STRONG WARM
AIR ADVECTIVE PATTERN/ASCENT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE LOW THURSDAY AND
PERSISTS THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. INITIALLY THERE WILL BE QUITE A
BIT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST IT MAKE
TAKE SEVERAL HOURS TO TOP DOWN SATURATE THE ATMOSPHERE ENOUGH TO GET
SNOW GOING. THIS THINKING WOULD BRING THE GREATEST RISK FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOWS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

ACCUMULATIONS...GETS QUITE WARM ALOFT BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
0C 850 MB ISOTHERM NOSING INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER WHICH WOULD SUGGEST
FAIRLY LOW SNOW TO WATER RATIOS ON THE ORDER OF 8-12:1. THIS WILL
LIKELY HOLD AMOUNTS DOWN IN THE 1 TO 2 INCHES RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA...BUT PERHAPS A 3-5 INCH ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WHERE SOME ENHANCEMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THURSDAY
NIGHT AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THE LOW.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...SYSTEM CONTINUES ON TO THE EAST FOLLOWED
BY FAIRLY STRONG COLD ADVECTION/GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS FOR
FRIDAY... BEFORE DIMINISHING FRIDAY NIGHT. AS -16C TO -20C 850 MB
AIR SETTLES ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES FRIDAY...EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE FAVORED NORTHWEST FLOW AREAS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DECENT
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH INCOMING AIRMASS WILL
BECOMING INCREASINGLY DRY AND SHOULD LIMIT ANY SUBSTANTIAL LAKE
EFFECT SNOWFALL. LIMITED NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT WILL CONTINUE
FRIDAY NIGHT SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH ANY ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS
VERY LIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP TO BELOW ZERO IN MANY
AREAS EXCEPT THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES. THE COMBINATION OF WIND AND
COLD TEMPS MAY PRODUCE ADVISORY CRITERIA WIND CHILLS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD NORTHWEST FLOW MAY STILL SUPPORT A FEW LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES OR
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY MORNING SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...BUT
OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE LOWER LAKES AND PROVIDE
A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER.

THE OPERATIONAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH THE HANDLING OF THE SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF TAKE A SURFACE LOW FROM THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY TO TO THE MID ATLANTIC OR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY
MONDAY AS A SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH INTERACT AND PHASE.
THIS TRACK AND STREAM INTERACTION WOULD PRODUCE A SOLID SHIELD OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW TRACK...INCLUDING OUR
ENTIRE REGION. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL
OF SPREAD AMONGST THE 12Z GEFS ENSEMBLES WITH THE TIMING AND TRACK
OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH SOME MEMBERS KEEPING THIS SYSTEM SUPPRESSED
AND WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA...AND SOME WITH TIMING ALMOST 24 HOURS
DIFFERENT THAN THE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE. GIVEN THIS ENSEMBLE
UNCERTAINTY AND THE TIME RANGE...THIS SYSTEM IS STILL RELATIVELY LOW
CONFIDENCE. NONETHELESS WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF SUPPORT HAVE
INCREASED POPS INTO THE LOW LIKELY RANGE.

BEHIND THIS SYSTEM ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR ENTERS THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HINT AT THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WNW FLOW LAKE EFFECT EVENT...BUT OBVIOUSLY THIS IS
SUBJECT TO CHANGE BEING 7 DAYS OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE UNDER SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
THIS MORNING THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST FROM OHIO.
SKC WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT THEN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL WORK EAST ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING OUR REGION.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...IFR IN SNOW BY AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.
SATURDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
SUNDAY...INCREASING CHANCE FOR IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS ACROSS OUR REGION THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
EAST FROM OHIO. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL SLOWLY BACK TO THE WEST
TODAY AND EVENTUALLY TO THE SOUTH BY THURSDAY WITH WAVES BUILDING ON
THE NORTH SIDE OF LAKE ONTARIO. THURSDAY NIGHT WINDS VEER BACK TO
NORTHWESTERLY WITH A CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
AGAIN.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH






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