Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KBUF 270607
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
207 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING WARM AND HUMID THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDWEEK. THE NEXT
FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE AT PRECIPITATION BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
SHOULD PREVAIL WITH THE OCCASIONAL PASSING PATCH OF HIGH CLOUDS.
SURFACE OBS AT 2AM ARE SHOWING LINGERING PATCHES OF FOG FROM FULTON
TO WATERTOWN EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND WITHIN THE SOUTHERN TIER RIVER
VALLEYS. DEWPOINTS HOLDING IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AND A LOW
LEVEL INVERSION WILL AGAIN KEEP MILD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT DESPITE
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROMOTE FAIR WEATHER TODAY WITH
PATCHY FOG ERODING BY LATE MORNING. WHILE DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK...RECENT MESOSCALE GUIDANCE
INCLUDING THE HRRR/WRF/SSEO ALL SHOW SOME AFTERNOON INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO TODAY IN THE FORM OF WEAK SBCAPE.
THIS MAY TRIGGER SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM PER THIS
GUIDANCE SO HAVE CONTINUED A LOW CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS
JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.
OTHERWISE 850 MB TEMPERATURES RISING TO AROUND 18C WHICH WOULD MIX
OUT SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S ALONG WITH
LINGERING HUMIDITY AS DEWPOINTS HOLD AROUND 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ANY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY DURING
THE DAY ON MONDAY SHOULD FIZZLE OUT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING
MONDAY EVENING...LEAVING BEHIND A DRY AND QUIET REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT AS SURFACE-BASED RIDGING SETTLES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS HOVERING IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...NIGHTTIME
LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS...RANGING FROM THE UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER
AND NORTH COUNTRY TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE.

DURING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE SURFACE ANTICYCLONE WILL SLIDE
EASTWARD AND OFF THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE...WHILE THE NORTHERN
EXTENSION OF ITS PARENT 595 DM UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO NEW YORK STATE...IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT MID
LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. CONSEQUENTLY...OUR
REGION WILL COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AT THE LOWER LEVELS AND BUILDING HEIGHTS/INCREASING SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT...WITH THE COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS LEADING TO A RETURN
OF MIDSUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY.

UNDER THIS REGIME...850 MB TEMPS WILL CLIMB TO BETWEEN +17C AND
+18C TUESDAY AND TO THE +19C TO +20C RANGE WEDNESDAY. TRANSLATING
THESE TO THE SURFACE...DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD REACH INTO THE 85-90
RANGE TUESDAY AND TO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S ON WEDNESDAY. ON
BOTH DAYS...THE COOLEST READINGS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES...WHILE THE HOTTEST
TEMPS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE GENESEE VALLEY
AND FINGER LAKES...WHERE A FEW SPOTS COULD EVEN PUSH THE MID 90S
ON WEDNESDAY IF THE SLIGHTLY HOTTER GFS GUIDANCE VERIFIES. AT THE
SAME TIME... SURFACE DEWPOINTS SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE IN THE LOWER
TO MID 60S TUESDAY BEFORE RISING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL LEND AN INCREASINGLY MUGGY FEEL TO OUR
AIRMASS.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO REMAIN VERY LOW
THROUGH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WHILE A STRAY POP-UP SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT IN THE HEAT OF EACH
DAY...AT THIS POINT IT STILL APPEARS THAT GENERAL LARGE-SCALE
SUBSIDENCE AND THE LACK OF AN APPRECIABLE TRIGGER SHOULD GENERALLY
KEEP OUR WEATHER DRY RIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

ALL OF THIS WILL THEN CHANGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THE FIRST PART
OF THURSDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS
ONTARIO PROVINCE AND INTO WESTERN QUEBEC...WHILE SWINGING ITS
ATTENDANT TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW
YORK. GIVEN THAT THE FRONT WILL BE INTERACTING WITH A VERY WARM
AND HUMID AIRMASS AS IT PUSHES EAST...WOULD EXPECT AT LEAST SOME
SCATTERED CONVECTION TO CROSS THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH ITS
PASSAGE. THIS STATED...ANY POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER TO SEVERE
CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE GREATLY LIMITED AT THIS JUNCTURE DUE TO
THE UNFAVORABLE NOCTURNAL/EARLY MORNING TIME FRAME...UNIMPRESSIVE
SHEAR PROFILES...AND THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT ITSELF.

FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE
AND COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL RAPIDLY BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A
RETURN TO DRY WEATHER AREAWIDE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH
MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS IN TIME FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT. LOOKING AT THINGS MORE SPECIFICALLY...AFTER A
SULTRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO
FALL MUCH BELOW THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S...DAYTIME HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL PULL BACK A BIT INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S...BEFORE
FALLING OFF TO LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S THURSDAY NIGHT. AT
THE SAME TIME DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL ALSO FALL BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S THROUGH THE
COURSE OF THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST...THE DRY/QUIET AND MORE
COMFORTABLE WEATHER ESTABLISHED LATE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SURFACE-BASED HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY AIR REMAINING DOMINANT ACROSS OUR REGION. WITH 850 MB
TEMPS LOOKING TO RANGE BETWEEN +12C AND +14C PER A BLEND OF THE
GFS/ECMWF...EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS TO RANGE RIGHT AROUND THE 80
DEGREE MARK.

AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND...A GENERAL LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST... WITH A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSES PASSING
THROUGH THIS FLOW AND TRAVERSING OUR REGION IN THE PROCESS. WITH
SOME MOISTURE ALSO RETURNING INTO OUR AREA OUT AHEAD OF THESE
FEATURES...CHANCES FOR DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL PROBABLY
BE ON A SLOW BUT GENERAL INCREASE OVER TIME...WITH A LIMITED
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/STORMS ON SATURDAY PERHAPS GIVING WAY TO
SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCES FOR SUCH BY SUNDAY AS A SOMEWHAT MORE
PRONOUNCED IMPULSE WORKS INTO THE REGION. WITH ALL OF THE ABOVE IN
MIND...HAVE INDICATED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SATURDAY RISING INTO THE
LOW CHANCE RANGE BY SUNDAY...WHILE KEEPING TEMPERATURES RIGHT
AROUND NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES TODAY WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND PREVAILING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. THE EXCEPTIONS ARE AT KJHW
WHERE SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG MAY BRING MVFR/IFR VSBYS... AND EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO AT KART AND KFZY ARE SHOWING IFR FOG/CIGS THIS MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD ALLOW ALL FOG TO CLEAR TO VFR THROUGH THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A -SHRA/-TSRA THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY EAST OF KART WITH
DEVELOPING DAYTIME INSTABILITY. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CENTER OVER
LAKE ERIE MONDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES AGAIN
PROMOTING SOME PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG IN THE SOUTHERN TIER.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF MORNING
RIVER VALLEY FOG IN THE SOUTHERN TIER. WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK WITH
GENERALLY CALM CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.