Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 270229
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1029 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. COLD AIR ARRIVES FOR
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA TO START NEXT
WEEK...AND WILL BRING A SLOW WARMING TREND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST
OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH HANGS BACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES TO QUEBEC PROVINCE. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS TAPERED OFF
WITH REMAINING LOW CLOUDS AND SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE LITTLE AND REMAIN AROUND 30 TO THE LOWER 30S
OVERNIGHT.

A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
BASIN AND PRODUCE SOME SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY...850MB TEMPS TO -12C
WILL STEEPEN THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATE AND BOOST BOUNDARY LAYER
INSTABILITY AND 850MB-LAKE TEMP DIFFERENCE IS JUST BARELY ENOUGH TO
KICK IN A LITTLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AN ALL TOO FAMILIAR LONGWAVE PATTERN OF A DEEP 500MB TROUGH ACROSS
THE EASTERN STATES WILL BRING ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY COOL WEEKEND
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE AXIS OF THIS TROUGH WILL SLIDE EAST
OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT PUSHING A SURFACE LOW OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST OUT OVER THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC. WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE...COOLING 850MB TEMPERATURES AND NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK
AND THE FINGER LAKES REGIONS FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COLD 850MB FLOW WITH
TEMPS DOWN TO AROUND -18C WILL NEAR TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
LATE MARCH NORMALS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REACH DOWN INTO THE TEENS
ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM HEIGHTS TO AROUND
6KFT. EXPECT SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO THE SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO WITH ENHANCED STEAMERS LEAVING A FRESH INCH OR TWO.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF SATURDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
STRIPPED AWAY BY THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW PASSING EAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA. FOLLOWING THIS LOW AN INCOMING DRIER AIRMASS WILL ARRIVE AS
A BROAD ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH SETTLES SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
MORNING CLOUDINESS AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL BECOME PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
BY AFTERNOON. THE COLD NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY LIMITED TO TOPPING OUT IN THE MID 20S OR ABOUT 20 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF NEW YORK SATURDAY
NIGHT AND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES SUNDAY. THE SURFACE HIGH ALONG
WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL BRING A SHORT PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER
WITH CLEAR SKIES SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOTS OF COOL SUNSHINE MUCH OF
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES WILL DROP TO
AROUND 10 IN THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTY AND MID TEENS NEAR
THE LAKE SHORES. HIGHS SUNDAY WITH DEVELOPMENT OF A SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL RISE INTO THE U30S.

A COMPACT SURFACE LOW AND VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE
GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN OF
CLOUDS AND CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT A MIX
OF RAIN AND SNOW CHANGING TO CHANCES OF ALL SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT. A
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM ALONG WITH THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL
HOLD OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN THE 30S. THE SYSTEM WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED
BY A 50+KT 850MB LOW LEVEL JET. AN INVERSION WILL LIKELY KEEP THESE
HIGHER WINDS FROM MIXING TO THE GROUND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL
BECOME ZONAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THIS SIGNALS THAT WE MAY FINALLY SEE
A RETURN TOWARD AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO START APRIL. BEFORE THIS
HAPPENS WE WILL HAVE TO SEE THE DEPART OF A SHARP MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND COMPACT SURFACE LOW. AS MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM
DISCUSSION A 50+KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM WITH A
CHANCE FOR SOME PRECIPITATION. AS THE LOW SHIFTS NORTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO MONDAY AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK. COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INCREASE
TEMPERATURE LAPSE RATES HELPING SOME GUSTY WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO THE
SURFACE THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE
FRONT LOOK TO WARM TO AROUND 40 SO PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN THE
FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS BUT THEN TEMPERATURES FALL THROUGH THE 30S
MONDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS WITH WINDS RELAXING.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO LARGELY FEATURE THE RETURN TO
MORE NORMAL LATE MARCH/EARLY APRIL TEMPERATURES WITH THE DEVELOPING
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. MODELS ARE SHOWING SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES WORKING
THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT BUT TIMING/LOCATION DIFFERENCES ARE PRESENT.
HAVE COVERED THIS WITH LOW CHANCES OF DAYTIME RAIN SHOWERS AND OVERNIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL A MORE CLEAR SOLUTION DEVELOPS. THE FORECAST
DOES FEATURE SOME 50S BY THURSDAY BUT WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND NOCTURNAL COOLING WILL HOLD STRATUS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL BRING
SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY WITH MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS...POSSIBLY
IFR VBSYS IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY...MVFR IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT...THIS WILL
BRING INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS BY LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT.
WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS TIME PERIOD FOR POTENTIAL MARGINAL SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ALONG THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA/WCH
NEAR TERM...TMA/WCH
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...TMA/WCH
MARINE...CHURCH/TMA/WCH




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