Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 240742
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
342 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1255 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND WILL FEATURE MAINLY DRY AND MILD
CONDITIONS. A COUPLE OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BRING
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS TODAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY AND SUNDAY ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE UPPER 50S TO MID
60S...WITH SATURDAY LIKELY THE WARMEST DAY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE
MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

FRACTURED MID LEVEL TROUGH/MOISTURE AXIS WITH LITTLE/NO REFLECTION
IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL TRANSLATE EAST THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED WEAK SUPPORT FROM A VORT MAX
(SHOWING UP OVER SRN LAKE MI ON MORNING WATER VAPOR) AND THINNING
CORRIDOR OF 850 MB MOISTURE MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE A FEW SPOTTY
LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES INTO MAINLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA
THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE ONLY IMPACT WILL BE SLOW EWD PROGRESSION
OF A BKN/OVC LOW CLOUD DECK. MODEST HEIGHT RISES/SUBSIDENCE IN
WAKE OF THIS WEAK TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW CLOUDS TO MIX/SCATTER OUT A
BIT LATER TODAY...WITH AFTN HIGHS EXPECTED TO RECOVER INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S (DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER).

A RATHER STRONG SHORTWAVE AND DEEPENING SFC LOW WILL EMERGE FROM A
PAC NW/SW CANADA 150+ KT UPPER JET AND TRACK INTO ONTARIO AND THE
NRN LAKES BY LATER TONIGHT. THE FOLD OVER OF A MORE PRONOUNCED
LOW-MID LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM COLD FRONT WILL
RESULT IN A MILD NIGHT FOR LATE OCT STANDARDS. COULD ALSO SEE ISO
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES AND STRATUS DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT GIVEN MODEST
925-850 MB WAA SURGE...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE/PROBABILITY IN ANY
MEASURABLE PCPN REMAINS TOO LOW FOR A MENTIONABLE POP ATTM.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

SYS OF NOTE FOR THIS PD LIES OUT NR 140W THIS MORNING AND WILL TURN
INLAND ALG THE WEST COAST EARLY SAT. DOWNSTREAM FLW AND PERTURBATION
STREAKING THROUGH JAMES BAY CONTS TO OSCILLATE IN SOME DEGREE AMG
MODEL SOLUTIONS WHICH AS YET CONTS TO YIELD SOME UNCERTAINTY IN
REGARD TO TEMPS MAINLY SUNDAY. 00Z SUITE AS A WHOLE MUCH MORE
SUBDUED W/BACKDOOR CDFNT SAT NIGHT AND INDICATE ROBUST LL WAA DVLPG
BY AFTN. THUS IN NOD OF GEFS AGREEMENT AND DECIDED UPWARD TREND SEE
NO REASON TO NOT BUMP SUN TEMPS UP HIGHER AGAIN.

W/PROGRESSIVE PATTN ALOFT IN PLACE WRN SYS QUICKLY AMPLIFIES NEWD
INTO CNTRL ONTARIO TUE AS TRAILING SHARP CDFNT BURSTS EAST. LL
THERMAL RIDGE AHD OF THIS FTR QUITE STG W/CORE OF 16-18C H85 TEMPS
NOSING INTO THE SRN LAKE MON. EVEN A CONSERVATIVE MIX DOWN FM H9
PORTENDS ADDNL UPWARD HEADROOM LIKELY AND SEEMS PRUDENT TO USE
WARMEST GUIDANCE BLEND PSBL. SIG LL MSTR/THETA-E SURGE WITHIN BROAD
LLJ W/WRN GOMEX ORIGINS FOLLOWS MON NIGHT/TUE AHD OF EWD SURGING
CDFNT. GIVEN FVRBL THETA-E RIDGING LT MON NIGHT AND MODEST MASS MSTR
FLUX NW THIRD ADDED A SLGT CHC POP FOR SHRA W/TSRA PSBL AS WHATS
LEFT OF PLAINS EML ADVTS OVERHEAD. OTRWS GIST OF PRIOR TUE FCST
HOLDS W/HIGHER POPS WARRANTED AT LEAST FOR WRN HALF IN PROXIMITY TO
TAIL END OF GREATER GLANCING HGT FALLS.

VIGOROUS DRY SLOT WRAPS EWD TUE NIGHT AND CUT POPS SUBSTANTIALLY
THROUGH EVENING AND ALTOGETHER LATE AS FNTL BNDRY IS CLRG THE EAST
COAST AT THAT TIME. RIDGING AND SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS XPCD IN WAKE
OF THIS SYS WED-FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1255 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

WEAK ELEVATED TROUGH/MOISTURE AXIS ACROSS IL WILL SPREAD SLOWLY
EAST INTO NRN IN THIS MORNING. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO HIGH
MVFR-LOW VFR AROUND DAYBREAK AT SBN AND LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON AT FWA BEFORE SUBSIDENCE/DRYING LIKELY SCATTERS THIS
STRATOCU DECK OUT BY LATER IN THE DAY. DRY OTHERWISE WITH LIGHT
SSW WINDS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


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