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000
FXUS63 KIWX 060550
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1250 AM EST THU MAR 6 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1243 AM EST THU MAR 6 2014

DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY AS
TEMPERATURES MODERATE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL INTO THE 30S FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. LOOK FOR A
RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FINALLY ON FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS
REACHING INTO THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM EST WED MAR 5 2014

CLIPPER SYSTEM CURRENTLY EXUDING ITS LAST GASP ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA. EXPECT ALL PRECIPITATION TO BE DONE BY 00Z TONIGHT AS FGEN
FORCING DETERIORATES. HAVE BROUGHT TEMPERATURES LOWER ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE SKIES WILL CLEAR MORE
QUICKLY OVERNIGHT. NOT AN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT WITH 5 TO
10 MPH WINDS...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SITES DROP
INTO THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON THURSDAY COUPLED
WITH WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION HAS LEAD TO INCREASED CONFIDENCE FOR
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE GUIDANCE. EVEN WARMEST GUIDANCE FAILS TO
RISE KSBN OUT OF THE UPPER 20S. HAVE BROUGHT THE SOUTHWESTERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING. KEPT TEMPS
SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE NORTHEAST WHERE MORNING TEMPS WILL START
COOLER.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM EST WED MAR 5 2014

LTL OF CONCERN THIS PD YET AS NOAM PNA HGT PATTN RELAXES A BIT. ONLY
SENSIBLE WX OF NOTE LIES W/WK MSTR STARVED NRN STREAM WAVE THAT CUTS
ACRS THE LAKES ON SAT W/MID RANGE POPS STILL PREFERRED.

OTRWS FAIRLY ROBUST LL WAA XPCD TO DVLP SUN AND CONT THROUGH TUE AHD
OF NEW POTENT SW AMPLIFYING SWD OUT OF CNTRL CANADA. EC MOS NUMBERS
ARE QUITE TOASTY BUT LIKELY TOO WARM CONSIDERING PERSISTENT HIGH
DENSITY SNOWPACK IN PLACE AND GENERALLY FOLLOWED MORE TEMPERED BUT
CLOSER TO NORMAL MEX MOS NUMBERS. REGARDLESS MODERATING TEMPS WILL
BE WELCOMED AND ASSIST IN SOME SNOW MELT MON-TUE. BEYOND THAT THINGS
LOOK INTERESTING W/RENEWED AMPLIFICATION IN NOAM HGT PATTN INDICATED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1241 AM EST THU MAR 6 2014

VFR MET CONDITIONS THROUGH ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD AS STRONG
SURFACE RIDGING FROM WRN QUEBEC INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN SLOWLY SAGS
SWD INTO SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...BENTLEY
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...MURPHY


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