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000
FXUS63 KIWX 171944
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
344 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 60S. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE
LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS THROUGH THE
REGION. THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE FAIRLY NICE WITH TEMPERATURES
GRADUALLY WARMING TO NEAR 70 DEGREES BY SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

SHRTWV OVER THE PLAINS THIS AFTN EXPECTED TO MOVE E-NE ACROSS THE
GRTLKS/OH VALLEY TNGT/FRI. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE IS LACKING WITH GULF
CUT OFF... 12Z MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THERE WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FORCING AND THETA-E ADVECTION FOR SHOWERS TO FORM ALONG
THE SFC CDFNT AS IT MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.  SOME
INDICATION THAT THE FRONT MAY BE BECOMING A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE THIS
AFTN WITH RADAR ECHOES AND SFC OBS SUGGESTING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
FORMING KS-NRN MO-NW IL. BEST FORCING IN OUR AREA SHOULD OCCUR
OVERNIGHT ACROSS NW 1/2. HWVR... GIVEN LESS SUPPORT FOR PRECIP
DEVELOPMENT IN OUR CWA BY RAP/HRRR AND GENERALLY DRY AIRMASS... KEPT
POPS IN THIS AREA IN THE CHC RANGE. BETTER FORCING SHOULD MOVE NE OF
OUR CWA ON FRIDAY... SO TRENDED POPS LOWER IN THIS PERIOD.

DIURNAL COOLING OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE ENHANCED BY LIGHT WINDS...DRY
LOW LEVELS AND PERHAPS SOME EVAPORATIONAL COOLING WITH SHOWERS NW...
THOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR EVERYWHERE. EXPECT LOWS
TO BE IN THE L-M40S...EXCEPT IN THE M-U30S WITH DVLPG ONSHORE FLOW
NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. WITH A BETTER CHC OF STAYING DRY AND ASSOCIATED
POTENTIAL DEEPER MIXING... BUMPED UP HIGHS A FEW DEGREES INTO THE
L-M60S SE FRIDAY WHILE NW SHOULD BE IN THE M-U50S...EXCEPT ONLY
M-U40S NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN WITH ONSHORE FLOW CONTG.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

FAIRLY TRANQUIL WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS PERIOD AS A COUPLE OF
SHORT WAVE TROFS BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE...
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL.
FAVORED THE GFS THIS PACKAGE WHICH HAS GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY
WITH RECENT RUNS. GIVEN THIS CONSISTENCY...RAISED RAIN CHANCES A
LITTLE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. KEPT THUNDER OUT FOR NOW GIVEN
LIMITED MOISTURE AND LIMITED CAPE. ALSO...GFS/BUFKIT PROFILES
INDICATE NARROW CAPE WITH LIMITED BULK/SHEAR. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
MILD THIS PERIOD...EVEN CONSIDERED WARM GIVEN THE LINGERING SEEMINGLY
ENDLESS COLD PATTERN WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. HOWEVER...THE
GFS LOOKS TOO WARM DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK GIVEN 850 MB TEMPS
FALLING TO AROUND 0C AND RECENT WARM BIAS IN THIS PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 123 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

WKNG LOW OVER WI WILL MOVE NE OVER THE NEXT 24HRS WITH TRAILING
CDFNT OVER IL MOVG SLOWLY EAST ACROSS NRN INDIANA. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO CONT ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH SBN LATE THIS EVE AND FWA IN PRE-DAWN HOURS. SW WINDS
WILL CONT IN THE 15-20KT RANGE THIS AFTN AND THEN BECOME LIGHT WITH
LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVE. MVFR CIGS BEHIND THE CDFNT SHOULD SPREAD
INTO NRN INDIANA OVERNIGHT AND FRI MORNING. LATEST MODEL RUNS
GENERALLY SUGGEST A BAND OF -SHRA WILL FILL IN ALONG/BEHIND THE
CDFNT TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD AT LEAST IMPACT SBN WITH SOME WET
PAVEMENT OVERNIGHT FOLLOWED BY BR TOWARD DAYBREAK.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL/KG
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...JT


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