Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 022014
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
414 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT MORE AREAS WILL NOT RECEIVE RAIN.
THERE ARE ALSO SMALL CHANCES FOR STORMS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOONS
AND THE EARLY EVENINGS THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEMS COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING. OTHERWISE...VERY WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

 A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVED THROUGH EARLIER THIS MORNING AND
DEPOSITED SOME OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER CONVECTION.
AFTERNOON HEATING HAD ALLOWED CAPES TO RISE TO BETWEEN 3000 AND
3500 J/KG ACCORDING TO STORM PREDICTION MESOSCALE ANALYSIS OF CAPE
VALUES. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 5.0 AND 5.5 C/KM WERE VERY
STABLE...AND LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WAS VERY LIMITED. EXPECT STORMS
LATE TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT TO BE OF THE PULSE TYPE AND HIGHLY
DIURNAL WITH THIS ENVIRONMENT. WIND GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH OVER
NORTHWEST OHIO WERE REPORTED FROM EARLIER CONVECTION. GIVEN THE
LATEST SPC DOWNDRAFT CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1100 AND 1400 J/KG...WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...
STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE TONIGHT...AND THEN REDEVELOP THURSDAY AS
AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
RAIN WILL BE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE 80S AGAIN THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

NO MAJOR SHIFTS IN THE WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE REGION. AFTERNOON HIGHS WELL INTO
THE 80S COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO NEAR 70 WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY TO
PREVENT CONVECTION FROM FIRING FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH
THERE WON`T BE ANY CLEAR FORCING MECHANISM...THE RISK WILL
NONETHELESS BE THERE FOR HIT AND MISS SHOWERS OR STORMS. WILL
MAINTAIN THE AFTERNOON/EVE MENTION FOR THIS PERIOD.

MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS A SLOWER ARRIVAL TO THE COOLER AND LESS
HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION AS THE FIRST WAVE SET TO APPROACH MONDAY
ESSENTIALLY HITS A BRICK WALL AND MOVES NORTHWEST OF THE REGION.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE BUT HOW FAR
INTO THE AREA THEY WILL MAKE IT SEEMS MORE IN QUESTION. FOR
CONTINUITY SAKE WILL KEEP CHC POPS GOING WITH TRENDS POTENTIALLY
DICTATING LOWERING/REMOVAL IN LATER FORECASTS. MORE STOUT SYSTEM SET
TO MOVE IN BY WEDNESDAY WITH A DEEPER TROUGH AND BETTER CHANCE TO AT
LEAST DAMPEN THE RIDGE AND BRING SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS. WILL GO WITH CHC POPS FOR NOW. AS NOTED...COOLER WEATHER
WILL HOLD OFF TILL AT THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH CONTINUATION OF
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND MUGGY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR STORM AT THE
TERMINALS...BUT FELT THE CHANCES WERE TOO LOW GIVEN WEAK
SUBISDENCE AND STABLE LAPSE RATES IN THE MID LEVELS...SO KEPT TAFS
VFR.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...SKIPPER


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