Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 262337

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
737 PM EDT Wed Oct 26 2016

Issued at 734 PM EDT Wed Oct 26 2016

Low pressure over northern Illinois will move east across
northern Indiana and northwest Ohio overnight. This system will
cause showers in our area tonight... tapering off by daybreak
Thursday. Skies will remain mostly cloudy Thursday as the low
moves east across Lake Erie and high pressure approaches from the
west. Lows tonight will be in the 40s with highs Thursday ranging
from the upper 40s over south central Michigan to the mid 50s over
central portions of Indiana and Ohio.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 322 PM EDT Wed Oct 26 2016

Precipitation across northeast IL and northwest Indiana ahead of
potent short wave and surface front. Strong low level jet and ample
low level moisture coupled with upscale lift near frontal boundary
producing rain and embedded tsra. Regional radar mosaic shows this
area already well into northwest CWA at 19z and extending southwest.
hires guidance has been lagging a few hours and keeps weakening pcpn
as it moves east. While radar mosaic does show a slight diminishing is not as much as models indicate. Expect most of this
rain to continue a steady eastward movement across CWA into the
early evening before exiting the east by mid to late evening. Drying
to take place overnight but low stratus deck and moisture may lead
to light showers or drizzle late tonight and early Thursday. For now
kept a slight chance pop in western areas to account for this. Will
allow night shift to monitor drizzle/light shra trends for any
additional expansion after 12z/Thu. Trajectories behind surface low
to remain cyclonic Thu morning with sfc-850mb delta T/s to around 13-
15C. Could see some very light showers or sprinkles off the lake but
moisture depth rather shallow and not worthy of a measurable pop at
this time. With this cyclonic flow and trapped moisture expect perma-
cloud to linger during until at least late in the day.


.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 322 PM EDT Wed Oct 26 2016

Several short waves and associated surface waves will pass by mainly
to our north through the long term period. This will keep our area
in a relatively warm pattern for late October and early November
with still no signs of any significant cold air infiltrating the
region. Models continue to fluctuate on weak trailing boundaries
south of these fast moving northern stream waves and pcpn chances
associated with each through the week. Inherited blends rather
benign and see no reason to really add any pops given the pattern
and lack of strong forcing with best dynamics and moisture to our
north. Temps to remain well above normal through the period and
already reflected in grids.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 734 PM EDT Wed Oct 26 2016

Bands of shra contg across nrn IN into ern IL in area of low level
isent lift/theta-e advection ahead of shrtwv/sfc low over WI/IL.
Shra should cont to impact the terminals until around 04z at sbn and
08z at fwa. IFR/LIFR conditions near sfc low attm are expected to
impact the terminals overnight as the low moves east across nrn IN.
Wrap around low level moisture and steep lapse rates combined with
an inversion aloft based around 3-4kft should cause mvfr strato
cu deck to persist Thu along with gusty nw winds.


LM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LMZ043-046.



SHORT TERM...Lashley
LONG TERM...Lashley

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