Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 182353

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
653 PM EST Wed Jan 18 2017

Issued at 632 PM EST Wed Jan 18 2017

Cloudy skies, mist and times of drizzle continue tonight as the
high pressure system translates east of the area. Low pressure
then approaches for Thursday night with rain, but it will be dry
during the day Thursday. Lows tonight fall back into the low 30s
tonight, but highs will be able to reach near 50 for Thursday and
Friday with even warmer highs for the weekend.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 212 PM EST Wed Jan 18 2017

Drab and quite short term as low level anticyclone over srn IL
shifts east into WV overnight. While some erosion in low cloud
deck noted over wrn/cntrl IL per vis imagery...doubt it will
carry downstream as low level subsidence inversion remains quite
stout per nearby 12Z raob data and will back away from prior cloud

Otherwise more substantive deep layer subsidence expected on Thu as
low level ridge axis weakens overhead under ramping sw flow aloft.
Thus partial insolation along with swelling low level thermal
ridging will allow most areas to push toward or exceed 50 degrees.


.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 212 PM EST Wed Jan 18 2017

Warm/wet and more april like pattern to continue this period as
active sw flow aloft persists across the ern half of the US. Lead
disturbance over ne NM this aftn will wrapup into the upper
midwest before shearing out. As this sys carries ewd Thu
night...vigorous low level theta-e/moisture surge expected to race
newd into the lakes with cat pops warranted late Thu night-Fri
morning w-e.

Secondary sw disturbance follows in quickly behind lead wave late
Fri as tertiary sw amplifies ewd underneath through the mid MS
valley this weekend. While some potential for waa induced rain
possible Sat aftn far better chcs relegated to Sat night timed
with newd pivot of upper trough axis and weakening low level jet.
Muddle signals thereafter with track/wwd wrap of eventual deep
atlantic moisture tap into third sys and will defer to blend
given signal noise at this range. Regardless winter remains holed
up across AK/nrn Canada with continued much above normal temps
this period swd across the ern US.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 632 PM EST Wed Jan 18 2017

The clearing to the west filled back in with clouds around sunset
tonight. These clouds will continue through the overnight tonight
with the aide of light low level flow and low level moisture. Conditions
will continue to remain IFR as the low level moisture remains
trapped under the inversion overnight. Also winds will be backing
Thursday as the high pressure system moves east and the low
pressure system approaches from the southwest.





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