Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 172016
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 240 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

MORE NORMAL DECEMBER WEATHER IN PLACE FOR THE MOMENT WITH ONE
TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS EVENING WHILE A
TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WEAKENS AS IT LIFTS INTO INDIANA
THURSDAY BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW INTO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

CURRENT TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING IS
SHOWING SOME EROSION IN THE CLOUD DECK BEHIND IT ACROSS WESTERN
ILLINOIS. THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR EAST THIS PARTIAL CLEARING MOVES
TOWARDS OUR AREA WHILE AT THE SAME TIME SOUTHERN PLAINS CLOUDS
ADVANCE NORTHEAST TOWARD THAT CLEARING PATCH. END RESULT MAY BE
SOME BRIEF AND PARTIAL CLEARING FOR SOME OF THE SOUTHWEST
COUNTIES.

THE LIGHT SNOW THAT HAS BEEN OCCURRING WILL BE CARRIED AS A CHANCE
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT IN THE SAME AREAS CURRENTLY AFFECTED. STILL
EXPECT NO MORE THAN A LIGHT COVERING OF SNOW AT WORST FOR SOME
AREAS. MAINLY CLOUDY SKY AND FLOW TURNING MORE OFF THE LAKE SHOULD
KEEP MIN TEMPS TO NO LOWER THAN LOWER 20S TONIGHT.

THURSDAY...THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SYSTEM IS DEPICTED BY MOST MODELS
TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO RIDGE BEHIND CURRENT TROUGH IN OUR
AREA. NET RESULT WILL BE MAINTENANCE OF CLOUD COVER AND LOW THREAT
FOR LIGHT...NON-ACCUMULATING SNOW THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL REBOUND LITTLE...CLIMBING NO MORE THAN LOWER 30S IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

IN THE WAKE OF THURSDAY TROUGH EXITING THE AREA MODELS SHOW HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND AIR DRYING OUT
SUGGESTIVE OF DIMINISHED CLOUD COVER. HESITANT TO DELVE TO FAR
INTO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY GIVEN PERSISTENCE OF LOW CLOUD DECKS
WITHOUT MUCH WIND TO SCOUR THEM OUT. MINIMUM TEMPS ON TRACK IN
LOW TO MID 20S AND DIDN`T CHANGE MUCH.

FRIDAY MAY SHOW A FEW PEAKS AT THE SUN WITH NO WEATHER TO SPEAK
OF. THIS SHOULD ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH MID AND UPPER 30S UNDER
LIGHT EAST WIND.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MODELS CONTINUE THE TREND OF NEXT
APPROACHING SYSTEM TO REACH NO FURTHER NORTH THAN SOUTHERN INDIANA
WITH PRECIPITATION AND AN OVERCAST SKY FOR OUR AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL ESSENTIALLY REMAIN IN CONTROL FROM FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. BEYOND THAT TIME FRAME FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO MIDWEST BUT LATEST TRENDS ARE A
BIT WARMER LEANING TO MORE RAIN THAN SNOW. WITH HIGH UNCERTAINTY
AT TIMES WILL KEEP A RAIN SNOW MIX START CONVERTING TO ALL RAIN BY
TUESDAY THEN BACK TO A MIX OR ALL SNOW WEDNESDAY. AGAIN
UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH AND MANY MORE MODEL RUNS SHOULD SORT THIS OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 156 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY STEADY STATE AT BOTH TAF SITES
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY. SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY CONTINUE AT KFWA OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE WINDING DOWN AS THE WINDS SUBSIDE THIS EVENING.
WITH WINDS TURNING MORE NORTHWESTERLY BETWEEN 2-4 KFT AGL...KSBN
COULD SEE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING...WHICH COULD BRIEFLY
REDUCE VSBYS. THE BEST TIME FRAME FOR THIS WOULD BE 21Z-04Z. P6SM
VSBYS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. OCCASIONALLY GUSTY WINDS OUT
OF THE WNW WILL EVENTUALLY SUBSIDE TO BELOW 8 KTS AFTER 04Z.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TUCEK
SHORT TERM...TUCEK
LONG TERM...TUCEK
AVIATION...WEBB


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