Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KIWX 131455
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1055 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION MONDAY FOLLOWED BY DRY AND MUCH COOLER WEATHER THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO THE
LOWER 80S. HIGH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S. LOWS WILL BE AROUND 60 TONIGHT...AND GENERALLY FROM 50
TO 55 DEGREES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014

LEFT OVER STABILITY BUBBLE FM DECAYED REMNANTS OF CONVN FM SAT AM
ESSENTIALLY SERVING AS A BRICK WALL TO CONVN TRACKING EWD OUT OF NRN
IL/SRN WI. THUS XPC RUC/HRRR SLANT OF SPLITTING BTR FORCING/CONV
RESPONSE NORTH THROUGH MI EARLY THIS MORNING AND THROUGH CNTRL IL
REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING SPOT ON. AS SUCH AND INLINE W/MOST OTHER
MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE GONE AHEAD AND REBOOTED POP GRIDS W/LTL MORE
THAN A SLGT CHC FOR SHRA AFT 12Z FAR SOUTH.

OTRWS LL THETA-E RIDGE WILL SHUNT SWD TDA ALG THE OH RVR WITHIN
VEERED W/NW FLW BEHIND LARGER SCALE SW TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH SRN
ONTARIO. STGLY PREFER SLWR SPECTRAL SOLUTION CONSENSUS WHICH DOES
NOT BACK LL FLW ARND UNTIL LTR MONDAY AND WILL SCRAP ALL POPS
TONIGHT AS CONSIDERABLE DRYING WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA TDA.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014

BEST LOW LEVEL THETA-E PLUME WILL BE SHUNTED SOUTH OF THE AREA BY
MONDAY MORNING BUT LATEST 00Z MODELS INDICATE ENOUGH RESIDUAL
MOISTURE FOR PRECIP TO BE A CONCERN. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE GIVEN
THE DEPTH/STRENGTH OF PV ADVECTION EXPECTED TO SWING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES LATE MONDAY. STRONG CVA/700-500MB Q VECTOR
CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SPARK OFF AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS
GIVEN ADEQUATE RESIDUAL MOISTURE. COVERAGE...AMOUNTS...AND THUNDER
CHANCES ARE ALL STILL A BIT QUESTIONABLE THOUGH. SOME CONCERN OUR
CWA COULD BE SPLIT...AS SUGGESTED BY THE ECMWF...BETWEEN MORE
FOCUSED CVA TO THE NORTH AND BETTER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TO THE
SOUTH. AND DESPITE LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...SBCAPE VALUES IN
OUR CWA REMAIN FAIRLY MEAGER WITH ONLY AROUND 1000 J/KG THAT IS
CONFINED TO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. GIVEN THESE UNCERTAINTIES AND
OVERALL MODEST QPF ON NEWEST HI-RES SOLUTIONS...WILL HOLD WITH JUST
LOWER END CHANCE POPS FOR NOW AND LET LATER SHIFTS INCREASE IF
NEEDED.

FORECAST BEYOND MONDAY NIGHT LOOKS MORE FALL-LIKE THAN MID-JULY.
850MB TEMPS STILL LOOK TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ON THE BACK
SIDE OF IMPRESSIVE CLOSED LOW/NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 70F WITH NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS
OF 15-25 MPH. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
MAY GENERATE A FEW ISOLATED AFTERNOON SPRINKLES ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY BUT CHANCES OF MEASURING APPEAR LOW IN VERY DRY
ENVIRONMENT. SUSPECT OVERACTIVE CP SCHEMES ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR
SPURIOUS QPF SEEN EACH AFTERNOON...THOUGH WOULDN`T BE ENTIRELY
SURPRISED IF A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER VORTICITY
SPOKE ROTATES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND PROVIDES A LITTLE MORE
SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FOR ASCENT. WILL HOLD WITH DRY FORECAST FOR NOW BUT
AN ISO MENTION MAY BE NECESSARY IN FUTURE UPDATES. AT THE VERY LEAST
EXPECT A HEALTHY DIURNAL CU FIELD. TEMPS WILL SLOWLY MODERATE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY BUT ANY
SUBSTANTIVE CHANCES FOR PRECIP LOOK TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER DAY7.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014

VFR CONDS XPCD FOR MOST OF THIS PD OUTSIDE BRIEF/TRANSIENT MVFR CLD
CIG EARLY THIS MORNING IN ASSOCN/W DYING CONVN PROGRESSING INTO NW
IN OUT OF NE IL. SFC CDFNT IN ASSOCN/W SW TROUGH AMPLIFYING
THROUGH SRN ONT WILL PUSH THROUGH TERMINALS TWD 12Z AND WITH IT
ANY CHC FOR ADDNL SHRA/TSRA THREAT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PD.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...AGD
AVIATION...T


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.NORTHERNIN.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.