Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 241959

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
359 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2016

Issued at 350 PM EDT Wed Aug 24 2016

Showers and thunderstorms are possible through Thursday ahead of
a slow moving cold front as weak upper level systems move across
the area. Tornadoes are possible over the southern portion of the
area into early this evening, south of a line from Huntington to
Decatur. In addition to these storms, there is also the chance for
severe storms over part of the area Thursday. Locally heavy rain
will also be a concern. Highs will be in the low to mid 80s each


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 351 PM EDT Wed Aug 24 2016

Factors have become favorable for tornado development over the
southern portion of the area; south of the area of the ongoing
showers and isolated storms. This includes the area south of a
line from Grissom to Plum Tree to Monroe. An upper level
disturbance along with a low level jet has aided in low level
shear with Helicity values of 350 with shear of 30 m/s. Daytime
destabilization of the airmass with LCL heights below 750 meters
have allowed storms to produce tornadoes in the Kokomo area. The
Storm Prediction Center has included part of our forecast area in
a tornado watch until 8 PM this evening. Otherwise, the tornado
threat should end by late evening, More storms are possible
tonight, with another good chance for storms Thursday afternoon
with daytime heating. Localized flooding is possible with any
training storms, especially over areas that received extremely
heavy rainfall last week.


.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 351 PM EDT Wed Aug 24 2016

There should be a break from the storms from Friday through Saturday
before the moist air returns to the area early next week. Storms are
possible again starting Saturday night through the middle of next
week. High temperatures should be in the low to mid 80s each day.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 135 PM EDT Wed Aug 24 2016

Shortwave currently moving across the area and supporting some
decaying showers and storms along leading theta-e ridge. Increased
low level moisture supporting some low MVFR ceilings along and
immediately behind line of showers with some brief IFR not out of
the question at KSBN. Weak instability is keeping thunder very
isolated so far but a secondary area of convection is forming
across northern Illinois and could bring a few SCT storms to the
terminals this afternoon. Confidence in thunder is not high so
kept just VCTS for now. Timing also a bit uncertain, though best
chances should be during late afternoon and early evening. Expect
low clouds to scatter late this evening but another round of MVFR
possible toward daybreak, especially at KSBN.


.IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


SHORT TERM...Skipper
LONG TERM...Skipper

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