Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 261906
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
306 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1052 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TODAY
AS A FRONT APPROACHES. THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT KEEPING THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
AROUND. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S IN
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE UPPER 80S NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S IN SOUTHERN
MICHIGAN TO THE LOWER 70S ALONG THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

ISO-SCT ELEVATED CONVECTION STARTING TO BUBBLE UP ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A HYBRID WARM FRONT/TRIPLE POINT...AND IN
ADVANCE OF WEAK SHORTWAVE/SFC TROUGH APPROACHING FROM WI.
2500-3500 J/KG MUCAPE RESERVOIR FILTERING NEWD IN PERSISTENT WAA
REGIME ON EASTERN FRINGE OF IMPRESSIVE EML (AMID 50 KNOTS OF DEEP
LAYER SHEAR) HINTS AT AN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL RISK...WITH A LESSER
WIND THREAT INITIALLY PER PRONOUNCED ML/SB CIN.

ATTENTION FOR THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT WILL TURN TO
POSSIBLE UPSCALE GROWTH/ORGANIZATION OF A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX FCST TO
FORWARD PROPAGATE EWD INTO THE NORTHERN OH VALLEY. SCATTERED
MULTICELL CONVECTION HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO FORM ACROSS NORTHERN MO IN
ADVANCE OF A REMNANT MCV...WITH AMPLE MOISTURE/CAPE AND FLOW ALOFT
FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZATION EAST. WEST-TO-EAST ORIENTATION OF SBCAPE
GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL IL TO THE IA/MO BORDER UNDER STRONG WNW FLOW
ALOFT SUGGEST THAT THE BULK THIS CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (SEVERE WINDS)
WILL FOCUS SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF
INDIANA INTO SW OHIO. STILL TOO CLOSE FOR COMFORT FOR AREAS SOUTH
OF HWY 30 IN INDIANA WHERE A LOW WIND RISK REMAINS. AS MENTIONED
IN THE PREV DISCUSSION...THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR
BACKBUILDING/TRAILING CONVECTION AND ISOLATED FLOODING OFF OF A
STRATIFORM BUBBLE LATER TONIGHT ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE FA WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BE ADDRESSED IN THE HWO.

COMPACT/STRONG CIRCULATION NOW OVER FAR SOUTHERN MANITOBA WILL OPEN
SEWD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT AND INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
TOMORROW. STRONG MID LEVEL PVA/CYCLONIC FLOW WITH 100 METER HEIGHT
FALL CENTROID INTO SRN LOWER MI BY 00Z...AND FAVORABLE LEFT EXIT
JET SUPPORT INTO MAINLY NORTHERN/EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA...WILL
ALLOW A WEAK SFC REFLECTION TO STRENGTHEN A BIT INTO NRN IN/LOWER
MI TOMORROW. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT SCT SHOWERS/STORMS/UNSETTLED
WEATHER ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN/EASTERN ZONES BY LATE
MORNING/AFTERNOON GIVEN SOME DIURNAL RECOVERY...ALTHOUGH LEFTOVER
MOISTURE QUALITY AND CLOUD DEBRIS MAY BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED FOR
WIDESPREAD HVY RAIN/SVR WX. STILL IF SOME HEATING IS REALIZED
STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE ALONG A TRAILING SECONDARY CDFNT GIVEN
STRONG KINEMATICS (BEST CHANCES EAST OF I-69).

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

LEAD SW TROUGH OVR MB THIS AFTN CONT SEWD SHRT TERM AND ROUND EWD
THROUGH BASE OF OF LONG WAVE TROUGH DVLPG EAST OF JAMES BAY SUN
NIGHT. A BRIEF SHRA PSBL NE HALF SUN EVE OTRWS XPC SWD WRAPPING
COOL/DRY CANADIAN AIRMASS WILL CURTAIL ANY ADDNL SHRA THREAT INTO
MON. THUS WILL WHITTLE POPS FURTHER.

LTL SENSIBLE WX CONCERN THEREAFTER AS NEG HGT ANOMALY CNTRD NR JAMES
BAY LOCKS IN. THUS W/NWRLY LL FLW CONTG ACRS THE LAKES...
UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPS TO START ON MON WILL BE SLOW TO MODERATE
W/DOWNRIGHT COMFORTABLE TEMPS XPCD FOR LT JULY/EARLY AUG.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

HIGH END MVFR/LOW VFR STRATO CU CLOUD DECK EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
FILL IN ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW LEVEL
TROUGH/MOISTURE AXIS IN THE VICINITY. SCT STORMS MAY CREATE
TEMPORARY IFR RESTRICTIONS. EXPECT CONVECTION INVOF REMNANT MCV
AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO FIRE ACROSS MO INTO WC IL LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...LIKELY GROWING UPSCALE INTO A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS
INTO IN/OH LATER TONIGHT. LATEST SATELLITE/OB TRENDS SUGGEST THAT
THE WORST OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY PASS TO THE SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


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