Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 280450
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1250 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1249 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND WARM FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA LATER FRIDAY INTO THIS
WEEKEND. HIGHS TODAY WILL REACH THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80...AND THE
MID 80S ON FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

TRANQUIL WX XPCD THIS PD AS HIGH PRES BLDS THROUGH THE ERN LAKES.
N/NERLY LL FLW WILL CONT TO ADVT IN MUCH DRIER AIR W/SFC TDS FALLING
IN THE 50S TONIGHT. WILL TWEAK TEMPS OVERNIGHT A BIT HWVR IN LIGHT
OF UPSTREAM EWD SPILLAGE OF MID/HIGH CLDS. OTRWS PLEASANT WX XPCD TO
CONT ON THU.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

A 500MB RIDGE EXPANDING NORTHWESTWARD FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
WILL KEEP WEATHER QUIET THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE MORE ACTIVE WEATHER
RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER
LOWER MI AND THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH LATE THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE
DRIFTING INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES.

MEANWHILE...A TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. TODAY WILL DRIFT
EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MERGE WITH A SHORTWAVE CROSSING
THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THEN LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
INTO NORTHERN LOWER MI AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL BRING A SURFACE TROUGH AND LOW PRESSURE CENTER ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

ON FRIDAY...THE CWA REMAINS UNDER THE EXITING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY...THE BEST MOISTURE
TRANSPORT/CONVERGENCE FOCUSES ALONG AN AXIS TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA
AS THE CENTER OF WEAK SFC LOW DEVELOPS OVER MN/WI/IOWA FRIDAY
MORNING. THINK THE RIDGE WILL SUPPRESS ANY PRECIPITATION FOR THE
FIRST PORTION OF THE DAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE EXITS TO THE EAST LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SFC LOW LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. GIVEN WEAK
ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON THE 310K SFC AND 1-2K J/KG OF MUCAPE EXPECT
CHANCES FOR SOME SHOWER/T STORM DEVELOPMENT.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW LIFTS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO ONTARIO. BEST FORCING/PER
850-500MB QVECTOR CONVERGENCE AND STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT AT 305K/
MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...HAVE
HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS TIME. KEPT
THUNDERSTORMS IN AS WELL GIVEN DECENT INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY FOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHERE MODELS SUGGEST UPWARDS OF 2000 J/KG OF MUCAPE
FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AS FAR AS
SEVERE CHANCES THINKING THEY WILL BE FAIRLY LIMITED GIVEN WEAK 0-6
KM SHEAR...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN IS MORE SIGNIFICANT.
WITH PWATS BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 INCHES...AND CORFIDI VECTORS ORIENTED
PARALLEL TO THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAT AFT/SAT EVE COULD
SEE FLOODING PROBLEMS AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...MAINLY IN THE
NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL CWA.

SUNDAY NIGHT A BRIEF RIDGE ALOFT WILL SLIDE INTO THE CWA BEHIND THE
EXITING SHORTWAVE/SFC LOW PRESSURE TROUGH...ALLOWING FOR A BRIEF
BREAK IN PRECIPITATION. BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...A MORE POTENT
TROUGH WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW OVER MINNESOTA.
THIS LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO HUDSON BAY BY TUESDAY
MORNING...BRINGING A SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE/STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT AT 305-310K ARE IN PLACE MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TUESDAY MORNING...SO HAVE KEPT THE GOING
HIGHER CHANCE POPS FOR THAT TIME PERIOD. STORMS LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON COULD BECOME SEVERE...WITH AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG MUCAPE
AND 30-50 KTS 0-6 KM SHEAR OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. KEPT CONSENSUS
CHANCE POPS IN FOR TUESDAY...WHICH WILL MAINLY BE IN THE MORNING
WITH THE EXITING FRONT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BY TUESDAY EVENING UNDER RELATIVELY ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT...AND WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE HIGH PRESSURE HOLDING STRONG...SO
PULLED CONSENSUS SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1249 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AS LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
GRADUALLY VEER MORE EASTERLY WITH TIME UNDER SFC HIGH PRESSURE
DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER LAKES. ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE
NEAR DAYBREAK AT FWA WHERE MVFR STRATUS/FOG MAY DEVELOP.
OTHERWISE...SCT-BKN CIRRUS CANOPY TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A BKN-
OVC MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK TONIGHT.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...MCD
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


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