Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 241724

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
124 PM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017

Issued at 119 PM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017

High pressure lingering over the forecast area will keep
conditions dry through Tuesday. There are chances for rain showers
and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon into Thursday. Highs will
be in the upper 60`s and 70`s, coolest near Lake Michigan. Lows
will be in the upper 40`s and 50`s.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 350 AM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017

Continued warm and dry this period as sfc ridge and attendant low
level thermal trough breakdown further. Should see temps near a cat
warmer versus Sunday aftn.


.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 350 AM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017

A turn toward a wet and stormy pattern expected mid to late period.
However deep cutoff over the sern US continues to wreck havoc with
general trend of to much ewd progression seen with spread of pac
wave train inland across the Conus. And this is clearly evident in
multiday guidance trends midweek as secondary sw disturbance
placement/track had clearly backed appreciably west. In fact blended
pops should just be dropped entirely for Wed period at this point
yet collaboration prevents it. Some ewd erosion/shrinkage was made
though to account for ern neighbors and expand no pop mention

Still expect truncated likely pops through wrn zones has a
legitimate chance of verifying late Wed night/Thu morning before
cold front washed out through the ern OH valley. Otherwise most
vigorous wave amplifies significantly through the srn Rockies
this weekend. Ewd flood of return gulf moisture impressive and
will activate nwd returning warm frontal zone Saturday followed by
warm sector convection ahead of strong cold front Sunday.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 119 PM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017

Quiet weather will dominate the short term period, with high
pressure lingering overhead. The only concern is later tonight as
return flow brings increasing moisture into the TAF sites. Model
guidance suggests MVFR and even IFR ceilings developing after 6-7Z.
I think IFR is overdone, so stuck with a solid BKN MVFR deck
developing around that time frame and lingering through tomorrow at
both TAF Sites. FWA may see an improvement during the early
afternoon hours tomorrow, but expect SBN to stay around the BKN025





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