967
FXUS63 KIWX 091824
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
224 PM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and storms this afternoon and evening.
  Heavy rain, lightning, and gusty winds will be possible in any
  storms.

- Dry tonight with potential for patchy fog to develop Thursday
  morning.

- There is a High Swim Risk for southeastern Lake Michigan beaches
  today through early Thursday morning. Stay out of the water!

- Hot and humid by the weekend with chances for rain/storms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 223 PM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025

A cold front is located from Grand Rapids southwest towards Des
Moines, and it will slowly sink south and east this afternoon and
evening. Ahead of the front, destabilization is already occurring
across our forecast area. A growing cumulus field is evident on
visible satellite imagery and showers have been percolating
throughout the area already today. Because of cloud cover across
much of the area, temperatures have struggled to get out of the 70s
today. Scattered multicell clusters of showers and a few storms are
ongoing east of IN 49, while a lake shadow is keeping conditions dry
along the lakeshore. Additional diurnally driven showers and storms
will be possible until sunset. Much like setups over the past few
weeks, it will be feast or famine for storms. Some locations may get
nothing while others get several inches of rain in a short amount of
time. The Storm Prediction Center has maintained a Marginal Risk
(level 1 of 5) for the far northeast portion of the forecast area,
meaning a few storms could be strong to severe today. The setup for
severe weather appears fairly unimpressive as there is ample
instability for storms to work with (2000-2500 J/kg SBCAPE), but no
source of lift (until the front arrives) and little to no shear in
place as vertical wind profiles are unidirectional out of the
southwest. Confidence in severe weather is very low. Given ample low
level moisture (dewpoints in the 70s) and high PWATs of 1.5-1.75",
flooding is a much more likely scenario today than severe weather.
Backbuilding will be possible with low level low from the
west/southwest parallel to the boundary and slow Corfidi upshear
winds. Precipitation rates should be very efficient today given
long, skinny CAPE profiles, a deep warm cloud layer, and PWATs
above the 75th percentile of normal. WPC has much of the area in
a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for localized flash flooding,
which definitely is plausible given the favorable environment.

Additionally, there is a High Swim Risk for southeastern Lake
Michigan beaches today through early Thursday. As winds switch from
the southwest to northwest/north along the lakeshore behind the cold
front, waves will build to 3 to 4 feet. Strong rip, structural, and
longshore currents will all be possible, especially on the north
side of piers. Stay out of the water!

winds will shift to be coming from the northwest after the front
passes through and skies will start to clear out. Forecast soundings
show an inversion developing tonight as well as a stable airmass
moves in. With mostly clear skies, light winds, and residual ground
moisture, patchy ground fog may develop Thursday morning. Confidence
is medium in fog developing, but low as to the extent of visibility
impacts. Thursday will be dry as high pressure briefly builds into
the Upper Great Lakes region for 24-36 hours.

An upper level ridge expands across the southwest and central US
this week and progresses eastward. Heat and humidity will build
across the Midwest as the upper level ridges expands and WAA
increases later in the week. Depending on where the periphery of
the ridge sets up and how much destabilization occurs, we could
see some showers/storms on Friday. Better chances for
rain/storms arrive by the weekend as another cold front moves
through, although long term models disagree on exact timing and
positioning.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1248 PM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are ongoing this
afternoon in the warm sector of an approaching low over eastern
Michigan. KSBN is on the western fringe of this activity with
the most robust cumulus development noted to their east and
south. Not enough confidence to offer a dry forecast there,
thus, I`ve retained the inherited -TSRA mention.

Confidence is higher at KFWA for thunderstorms this afternoon,
though existing cloud cover has limited instability somewhat. In
the wake of showers and storms, fog appears to be increasingly
likely with renewed low level moisture, weak flow, strong model
concensus and a slow-moving front. Fog is less certain at KSBN
where, like existing satellite trends above, they are on the
western fringe of fog in model guidance. This trend will need to
be monitored for the next issuance. For now, held onto the
prevailing VFR conditions at KSBN.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Beach Hazards Statement until 1 AM CDT Thursday for INZ103.
OH...None.
MI...Beach Hazards Statement until 2 AM EDT Thursday for MIZ177-277.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Johnson
AVIATION...Brown