Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 111919

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
319 PM EDT Fri Aug 11 2017

Issued at 259 PM EDT Fri Aug 11 2017

A shower or thunderstorms remains possible through early evening
along and ahead of a cold front passing through the area. High
pressure will build in for the weekend into next week with dry
conditions. Temperatures will start on the cool side but warm to
near or somewhat above normal levels next week. The chance for
showers and thunderstorms arrives again by mid to lake next week.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 259 PM EDT Fri Aug 11 2017

Cold front was edging into southern Lake Michigan with pre frontal
trough not far ahead of it and hints of some focus
convergence/subtle lake breeze orienting from Gary In to near
South Bend and then NE from there. Cu development a bit more focus
on this feature and could lead to some isolated showers/storms
until the front passes. Main activity by far has now pushed
southeast of our area. While greatest severe threat is with the
activity to our SE, not out of the woods for an isolated
strong/severe storm with some effective shear and limited
instability. Behind the front colder air will work back in with
stratocu moving in initially, but likely decreasing in coverage
some with loss of heating. As eluded to by overnight shift, can`t
rule out some light shower or drizzle activity post frontal as
seen in a few locations in Wisconsin.

Cold air aloft will allow for at least sct cu to pop late am into
the afternoon on Saturday. Can`t rule out a stray shower popping
up somewhere, but not worth any mention in grids at present time.


.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 259 PM EDT Fri Aug 11 2017

Dry and pleasant conditions expected as high pressure settles in for
several days. A series of waves will start to traverse the northern
states and attempt to amplify the zonal flow, but models continue
with variation on timing/strength. While the whole period doesn`t
appear to be a washout, slgt chc to chc pops are warranted Weds ngt
into early Friday.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 125 PM EDT Fri Aug 11 2017

Disturbance moves through this afternoon, still with a chance at
seeing a shower or storm mainly east of I-69 so have kept the VCSH
in for FWA. Expect some drying out before sunset so, should rain
fall at FWA, it may dry up keeping fog chances away from FWA. In
addition, winds over 5 kts may preclude that all together and
bring in stratus instead. Have included a line for MVFR CIGs
behind the cold front Sat AM for FWA with MVFR CIGs already
creeping into S MI at midday today.


IN...Beach Hazards Statement from Saturday morning through Saturday
     evening for INZ003.

MI...Beach Hazards Statement from Saturday morning through Saturday
     evening for MIZ077.

LM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 11 PM EDT Saturday for LMZ043-



LONG TERM...Fisher

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