Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 140412
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1212 AM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorms possible tonight into Thursday night. Small
  hail, gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall possible.

- Mild through Thursday, much colder by Sunday.

- Light rain and snow showers early next week. Few if any
  weather impacts.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 143 PM EDT Wed Mar 13 2024

Moisture will surge northeast into the forecast area and bring
showers and storms ahead of a strong cold front. Strong upper
level winds, limited instability but fairly strong low level
shear favor storms with gusty winds and small hail. The CAPE
will be tall but thin with max values up to 1000 J/Kg per GFS.
Favor better chances for locally heavy rainfall with max
precipitable water values near climate maxes of 1.25" and cell
training possible. Some upper level jet support in the right
exit regain with also enhance rainfall amounts.

Colder and fairly tranquil weather will prevail through the
weekend into early next week as an upper level low out of Canada
settles over the area. No real organized precipitation is
expected, but light lake enhanced rain and snow showers are
possible Saturday night into early Monday. Chilly MondaY, then
warming as the upper flow become more high zonal.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1212 AM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024

Chaotic period coming up with multi-faceted convection yielding
considerable uncertainty. Warm frontal zone extends ewd from sfc low
over ne KS into srn IN attm but spreading north. Old decaying cold
front lies from ne IL through srn MI. Broad and increasing warm
advection aloft yielding a smattering of showers/storms over nw IN
currently with more vigorous development ongoing over nrn MO into
srn IA.

00Z highres cam models predicate considerable storms today yet vary
in timing. Ewd progression of plains low will aide in warm frontal
zone mixing north across the terminals by aftn. Current isold storms
sw of KSBN expected to continue newd near term followed by
additional showers/storms for a time toward daybreak into mid
morning which may yield a period of transient MVFR conditions.

Cold front follows late day with another bout of potential
showers/storms and MVFR restriction possible however much is
uncertain here pending evolution of morning activity and ability to
destabilize this aftn and will await later guidance to narrow more
specificity with 12Z issuance.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Skipper
AVIATION...T


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