Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 211842

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
242 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2016

Issued at 242 PM EDT Sun Aug 21 2016

An upper trough will exit tonight allowing high pressure to build
in for early next week. This will result in quiet weather and
less humid conditions. Lows tonight and Monday night will fall
into the 50s. Highs on Monday will reach the mid to upper 70s,
with highs on Tuesday near 80 degrees. A frontal system will move
through the area Wednesday into Thursday bringing renewed rain
chances and warmer temperatures. Drier and slightly cooler
conditions are then expected to return Friday into Saturday.


.SHORT TERM...(Late This Afternoon through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 242 PM EDT Sun Aug 21 2016

Mid level trough axis moving through the Great Lakes this
afternoon/early evening will exit east tonight. Gradual height
rises/subsidence and dry/stable airmass with associated building
sfc high pressure will lead to fair wx and gradual warming into
Monday and Tuesday. Some lake contribution thanks to 15C 850mb
delta T`s and seasonably strong wnw flow will continue to work in
concert with trough axis to produce a few showers late this
afternoon/evening mainly north of Route 6 in IN/MI. Dry with
winds diminishing otherwise/elsewhere into tonight as early fall
like airmass settles in.


.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 242 PM EDT Sun Aug 21 2016

Medium range model guidance has remained consistent in building a
subtropical ridge into the Southeast US/TN Valley during this
period. Several mid level impulses will lift northeast over this
feature from a Western US mean trough. This will bring increasing
moisture and several chances for rain/thunder to the local area,
best chances late Wednesday into Thursday and again toward the
second half of the weekend. Otherwise, expect temps to average near
normal late this week into the upcoming weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1232 PM EDT Sun Aug 21 2016

Low VFR stratocu deck will continue to fill in under upper trough
axis this afternoon, gradually thinning to a few-sct cloud deck
near 5 kft tonight. Winds will continue to gust up to 20 knots at
times in well mixed environment in wake of secondary sfc trough.
Could see a few lake enhanced showers in the vicinity of SBN
through the evening with minimal impacts if a shower happens to go
over the terminal. Dry/VFR otherwise with lighter winds tonight-
Monday as high pressure overspreads.


.IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IN...Beach Hazards Statement until midnight CDT tonight for INZ003.

MI...Beach Hazards Statement until 1 AM EDT Monday for MIZ077.

LM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Monday for LMZ043-046.



SHORT TERM...Steinwedel
LONG TERM...Steinwedel

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