Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 040632
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
132 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 125 AM EST THE FEB 3 2016

PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL END BY DAYBREAK AS LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES PERSIST OVER FAR SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN AND FAR NORTHERN INDIANA. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LESS THAN ONE INCH. SNOW SHOWERS WILL END BY LATE MORNING WITH
DECREASING AFTERNOON CLOUDS. EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 30S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1259 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016

PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE SHOULD END OVERNIGHT AS BOUNDARY LEVEL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO COOL ALLOWING MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
FOR DENDRITIC GROWTH WITHIN THE CLOUD LAYER. LOWERED SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS EARLY THIS MORNING GIVEN OBS...TRENDS AND EXPECTED THERMAL
PROFILE CHANGES. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OVER MOST AREAS TODAY AS
SUBSIDENCE INCREASES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

UPR TROUGH AXIS UPSTREAM ACRS WI WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA THIS
EVENING. ATTENDANT EWD SLIDE OF CAA WING WILL SPURN LL THERMAL
TROUGH OVR LK MI TO PRODUCE NMRS SHSN GENERALLY TOLL ROAD NORTH
THIS EVENING AND PERHAPS UPWARDS OF AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION PSBL.
OTRWS LK EFFECT SHSN FAR NORTH WILL DWINDLE THU AM AS DRY
ENTRAINMENT ENSUES AND THERMAL TROUGH WKNS IN RESPONSE TO WK WAA.
WILL FOLLOW W/WARMER MOS GUIDANCE TEMPS GIVEN CLDS TONIGHT AND THU
AFTN AS INSOLATION PROVIDES A BOOST.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM VERY QUIET WITH PREDOMINATELY RIDGING
ALOFT. A SPLIT TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY. A
FEW MODEL RUNS STILL TRYING TO SPIT OUT SOME LIGHT QPF. VERY LITTLE
CVA FORCING LOCALLY THOUGH AND SUSPECT OUR AREA WILL REMAIN
PRIMARILY DRY. DID HOWEVER LEAVE IN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES TO MAINTAIN SOME CONSISTENCY WITH INHERITED
FORECAST. TEMPS SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH STEADY...ALBEIT
WEAK...WAA.

MORE INTERESTING STORY IN LONG TERM IS POTENTIAL FOR MUCH COLDER AIR
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LARGELY MERIDIONAL 150 KT UPPER JET
WILL CARVE OUT A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH STRONG RIDGING OVER THE WEST COAST. STILL EXPECT A PERIOD OF
RAIN/SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BEFORE BECOMING ALL SNOW MONDAY
NIGHT. ANY ACCUMULATIONS OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT WILL BE LIGHT BUT
WILL SIGNAL THE ARRIVAL OF MUCH COLDER AIR. MODELS CONTINUE TO
STRUGGLE WITH EXACT TIMING/EVOLUTION OF POLAR LOW AND LATEST GFS AND
ECMWF STILL OFFERING SOMEWHAT DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS WITH REGARD TO THE
DEGREE AND LONGEVITY OF ARCTIC AIR. FOR NOW HAVE STUCK CLOSE TO
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE WHICH HAS HIGHS IN THE LOW 20S ON WEDNESDAY
AND AROUND 10F WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1259 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016

INTERMITTENT FREEZING DRIZZLE SHOULD END OVERNIGHT AS BOUNDARY
LEVEL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO COOL ALLOWING MORE FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR DENDRITIC GROWTH WITHIN THE CLOUD LAYER. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO BECOME VFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS SUBSIDENCE
INCREASES.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SKIPPER
SYNOPSIS...SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...AGD
AVIATION...SKIPPER



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