Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 192331

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
731 PM EDT Mon Sep 19 2016

Issued at 142 PM EDT Mon Sep 19 2016

High pressure over the southern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley
regions will provide mainly tranquil weather through the week with
above normal temperatures. Lows tonight will dip into the upper
50s to lower 60s and highs on Tuesday will reach into the lower


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 231 PM EDT Mon Sep 19 2016

Weakening cold front on southern fringe of high zonal flow near
the US/Canada border will sink into northwest IN/lower MI later
tonight, then wash out across northern IN on Tuesday.
Weakening/shallow nature to forcing and rather putrid moisture
profiles with greater instability pinched off to the west should
support a continuation of mainly dry/mild conditions into tonight
and Tuesday. With that said cannot completely rule out remnant
showers/iso thunder from upstream convection surviving into far nw
IN/sw Lower mi later tonight where slight chc PoPs were retained.
Held with a dry fcst on Tuesday given shallow forcing/lacking
instability along front as any convectively aided vort remains
west across IL/se IA/ne MO.


.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 231 PM EDT Mon Sep 19 2016

Unseasonably mild and mainly dry conditions are expected to persist
Wednesday through Friday as the local area becomes located just
south of a developing baroclinic zone from the Upper Midwest to the
Northern/Central Great Lakes. Tropical moisture/lead shortwave off
the Baja CA coast progged quickly ne through the Corn Belt/Great
Lakes in response to deep upper low digging into the Western US by
later Wednesday/Thursday will no doubt activate this baroclinic
zone. This feature will need to be monitored, but for now bulk of
guidance continues to suggest rain/storms will remain nnw of the
forecast area during this time.

Trends in model guidance over the last 24-36 hours has been to be
much more aggressive with troughing into the Northeast US late
Friday into next weekend. This process will likely drive the
aforementioned boundary southwest through the area as a backdoor
cold front later Friday-Saturday, with high pressure building se
into eastern Ontario/Eastern Great Lakes by Sunday. The result
will be a trend toward cooler (seasonable temps), with mainly dry
conditions persisting given lacking support aloft as upper ridge
axis noses in from the west.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 729 PM EDT Mon Sep 19 2016

Vfr conditions fcst to continue at the tafs sites through this
period.  Convection over LM/WI expected to dissipate before reaching
the terminals tonight as it moves e-se out of narrow
moisture plume along apchg cdfnt and diurnal heating/instability
wanes. Some br may form along wkng cdfnt over nw IN toward
daybreak. Mvfr vsbys psbl briefly at sbn but confidence too low
attm to include in tafs.




SHORT TERM...Steinwedel
LONG TERM...Steinwedel

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