Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 111050

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
650 AM EDT Wed Oct 11 2017

Issued at 235 AM EDT Wed Oct 11 2017

Rain will diminish to scattered showers north of the toll road by
daybreak and end elsewhere. Patchy drizzle or a light shower is
possible this afternoon. Much cooler with widespread clouds and
highs ranging from the upper 50s north to the upper 60s southeast.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 235 AM EDT Wed Oct 11 2017

Well defined sw trough and attendant sharp pv anomaly over cntrl IL
will quickly pivot ne into swrn lower MI by daybreak. As such
sweeping mid level dry slot will overspread the cwa from south to
north effectively ending this rain event through this morning. H7
low track through far nrn IN will likely promote additional showers
through srn MI into this aftn but coverage will be more scattered.

Otherwise cool northeast flow will persist this period northward of
elongated sfc trough axis from cntrl IL through se OH.


.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 235 AM EDT Wed Oct 11 2017

Ridging sfc and aloft builds in wake of lead short term system along
with an abrupt warmup by Fri as low level thermal ridge advects into
the lakes within increasing swrly flow aloft.

Next upstream sw trough and attend cold front will eject out of the
nrn Rockies late Sat and into the lakes by Sun. However significant
timing discrepancies exist among all model guidance with loose
consensus indicating a slower ewd progression of sfc system favoring
the Sun period. Not at all enthused with egregious blended pops yet
will follow attm given lack of model based continuity and inter
office coordination.  Nonetheless a significant but short lived
cooldown expected to follow for Mon before moderating back to well
above normal mid next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 646 AM EDT Wed Oct 11 2017

Rain will diminish early in the TAF period and the surface low
moves east. Given the flow and moisture, really not much hope for
VFR conditions. The IFR conditions should linger through the TAF
period, although conditions may improve to low MVFR.


LM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for LMZ043-




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