Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 160934

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
434 AM EST Mon Jan 16 2017

Issued at 423 AM EST Mon Jan 16 2017

Chances for light freezing rain and light rain will increase
today as a warm front lifts northward. Some light icing will be
possible across far northern Indiana and lower Michigan through
early this afternoon before temperatures warm above freezing. Rain
will become more widespread tonight into Tuesday morning as
temperatures warm well above freezing and low pressure lifts into
the Great lakes. Drier and slightly cooler conditions are then
expected behind this system into Wednesday before a warmer and at
times wet pattern develops for the second half of the week into
next weekend.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 423 AM EST Mon Jan 16 2017

Leading elevated warm advection wing in advance of a Central Plains
low pressure system will bring chances for light freezing rain to
mainly far northern IN and MI this morning into the early afternoon.
Latest colder look to model/ob trends a little concerning for
some light icing, especially in nw IN (including South Bend) and
lower MI 13-19z. However, confidence on impacts/ice accretions in
these areas remain too low for a headline given a rather dry/deep
sub-cloud layer under only modest cross isobaric flow on 290-295k

A notable increase in dynamic forcing and moist isentropic ascent
with the approaching system will bring periods of rain to the entire
area tonight, likely becoming more showery/convective/heavier by
later tonight-Tuesday morning under mid level wave and associated
pivoting frontal occlusion. High moisture content within low level
jet core (PWATS nearing 1 inch) and height fall centroid track (~120
meter fall at 500 mb) through the area support going high PoPs,
slight thunder chances, and rainfall amounts in excess of a half
inch in many areas. There is some concern that sfc temps may hover
near freezing in far ne IN/sc Lower MI later this aftn/early eve
given prevailing easterly wind component. This could result in
some light icing here into the early evening. Turning milder
otherwise with areas of fog possible tonight into Tuesday,
especially north near the sfc reflection track.

Rain chances then diminish into Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night
as primary system pushes off to the east, though lingering low level
moist/cyclonic flow in tandem with a separate northern stream
impulse may be enough to generate some additional drizzle/light
rain in areas.


.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 423 AM EST Mon Jan 16 2017

Wednesday will likely feature dry/slight cooler conditions as weak
ridging/subsidence briefly builds in. Above normal temperatures and
several opportunities for rain then for the rest of the week into
next week as more amplified southwest flow sets up.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1214 AM EST Mon Jan 16 2017

Low pressure over the srn plains will lift ne into the mid MS
valley this taf period. Warm/moist advection ahead of the low and
associated warm front should cause shra to develop over nrn IN in
the 12z-18z timeframe becoming widespread by eve. Initially temps
will prbly be blo freezing so, some -fzra psbl in this timeframe.
Given dry air indicated by DTX 00z sounding, didn`t ramp-up
previous taf`s vcsh to tempo or categorical -zr attm, though may
need to do so in the next 6hrs. Flight conditions should also
deteriorate to ifr by this aftn as stratus/fog move in ahead of
the warm front.




SHORT TERM...Steinwedel
LONG TERM...Steinwedel

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