Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 281028
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
628 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

AS ONE SYSTEM DEPARTS THE REGION TO THE EAST...YET ANOTHER WILL
DIVE IN FROM MINNESOTA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AND BRING ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS BY TONIGHT. BEFORE
THAT...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
CLIMB WELL INTO THE 70S FOR HIGHS. INCREASING CLOUD COVER TONIGHT
WILL AID IN KEEPING OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO MIDDLE
60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM..(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

THE REGION WILL GET A BRIEF PERIOD TO DRY OUT AS THE SYSTEM THAT WAS
RESPONSIBLE FOR CONTINUED/RENEWED FLOODING ACROSS MANY PARTS OF
NORTHEASTERN INDIANA INTO NORTHWEST OHIO DEPARTS QUICKLY TO THE NE.
THE DAY SHOULD START OUT WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE
MORNING. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE DROPPING THROUGH SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.
THIS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON AFTERNOON HIGHS REACHING THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S /LOCALLY COOLER ALONG LAKE SHORE AREAS COURTESY
NW FLOW OFF LK MI/. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY ENTER FAR WESTERN
INDIANA TOWARDS 00Z...BUT EXPECT ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL CHANCES TO
OCCUR AFTER THIS PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

AFTER A BRIEF BREAK TODAY...ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY AS PERTURBED CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
CONTINUES. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWS NEXT UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY ENTERING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WAVE
AND ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER LEVEL JET MAX WILL ROTATE INTO OUR AREA
BY LATER TONIGHT. DYNAMICS OF THIS WAVE ARE RESPECTABLE IN THEIR
OWN RIGHT BUT NOT NEARLY AS IMPRESSIVE AS YESTERDAY`S SYSTEM.
LACKING THE GOOD COUPLED UPPER JET STRUCTURE AND MIDLEVEL VORT MAX
IS MORE SHEARED AND MAINTAINS A WEAKER/MORE OPEN CONFIGURATION.
THAT BEING SAID STILL A SOLID PUSH OF CVA DIRECTLY OVERHEAD WITH A
DECENT SWATH OF 300K ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND 850MB THETA-E SURGE.
THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO TOUCH OFF AT LEAST NUMEROUS AND PERHAPS
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT PRECIP WILL COME IN
TWO WAVES. THE FIRST MOVING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN ISENTROPIC WING AND THEN PERHAPS A
SECONDARY ROUND MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS MODELS
SUGGEST SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AS VORT MAX PASSES
OVERHEAD. THIS IDEA HAS SUPPORT FROM BOTH HI-RES WRF- NMM AND ARW.
INITIAL ROUND OF RAIN SHOULDN`T BE PARTICULARLY HEAVY WITH PW
VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND BROAD/RELATIVELY UNIMPRESSIVE
FORCING. EXPECT QPF AMOUNTS GENERALLY AROUND A HALF INCH OR LESS.
SECONDARY ROUND DURING THE AFTERNOON MAY BE A BIT MORE CONCERNING
GIVEN STEADY LOW LEVEL MOISTENING AND SOME MARGINAL SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY SEEN IN THE MODELS. MODERATE RAIN SHOULD BE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THUNDERSTORMS. AGAIN...QPF AMOUNTS NOT AS HIGH AS SOME LOCATIONS
RECEIVED WITH THIS LAST EVENT BUT MUCH OF THE AREA WILL STILL BE
VERY WATER-LOGGED BY THAT POINT AND IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TO CAUSE MORE FLOODING. GIVEN THE HIGHEST
THREAT FOR FLOODING IS STILL ROUGHLY 36 HOURS AWAY...WILL FOREGO
WATCH ISSUANCE AT THIS POINT BUT LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO CONSIDER
ONE. MAY ALSO BE AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES MONDAY AFTERNOON WHERE LATEST SWODY2 CLIPS US WITH
MARGINAL RISK BUT BOTH SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ARE LOW AND FLOODING
IS BY FAR THE BIGGER THREAT.

AFTER ANOTHER BRIEF BREAK MONDAY NIGHT...YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL
DIG INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY. STORY REMAINS MUCH THE SAME.
BROAD/WEAK SYNOPTIC ASCENT COUPLED WITH SOME MARGINAL DIURNAL
INSTABILITY AND PRIMED ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS TO SET THE STAGE FOR
CONTINUED FLOODING THREAT DESPITE WHAT WOULD OTHERWISE BE FAIRLY
UNIMPRESSIVE QPF TOTALS. CHANCES FOR RAIN APPEAR LOW ON WEDNESDAY
BUT CONFIDENCE IN FINER-SCALE DETAILS BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AFTER
THAT. NOT SEEING MUCH CHANGE IN THE OVERALL LONGWAVE PATTERN BUT
STILL SOME HOPE THAT MAIN BELT OF ACTIVE WEATHER WILL SHIFT FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO ALLOW MORE WIDESPREAD/MAJOR FLOOD THREAT TO SUBSIDE.
TIME WILL TELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 628 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD AS
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
LATE IN THE DAY AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES BUT WILL
TAKE TIME FOR LOWER LEVELS TO SATURATE AND CEILING HEIGHTS SHOULD
REMAIN ABOVE 3 KFT. SOME LIGHT RAIN AND MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
AT THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD BUT BETTER CHANCES LOOK TO BE JUST
PAST 12Z MONDAY.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...AGD
AVIATION...AGD


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