Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 151739
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
139 PM EDT Sun Oct 15 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 134 PM EDT Sun Oct 15 2017

A cold front will exit the region this afternoon and most
precipitation will diminish in its wake. Gusty west to northwest
winds and steady or falling temperatures into the 50s can be
expected. A few lake effect rain showers are possible this
afternoon and evening. Lows tonight will be in the 40`s. Highs
Monday will be in the upper 50`s and low 60`s. High pressure will
then bring dry and very mild conditions for the rest of the week
with highs generally in the 70s.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 206 AM EDT Sun Oct 15 2017

Potent sw trough over MN will continue ewd into wrn QB this aftn.
Deepening sfc reflection over ern WI will likewise eject rapid newd
allowing cold frontal zone currently over wrn IL to accelerate east
across the lakes/OH valley near term. However frontal scale
circulation will essentially collapse as this unfolds with sig ewd
reductions in shra extent/pops warranted especially in consideration
of unfavorable timing and notable upstream decay taking place across
IL currently.

Otherwise strong cold advection wing will sweep sewd post frontal
with morning highs giving way to falling aftn temps through the 50s.
Brief but favorable lake MI induced thermal troughing maximizes this
evening yet expected to decay rapidly thereafter with strong
subsidence aloft and potent boundary layer drying and will limit pop
mention through 06Z.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 206 AM EDT Sun Oct 15 2017

High zonal flow develops early this period with broad ewd thermal
ridging expanding with time esp late week timed with eventual Conus
negative pna pattern development. Similar to past days will again
hedge warmer in outer periods especially dys 5-8.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 133 PM EDT Sun Oct 15 2017

Cold front was through terminals and winds had become west to
northwest and gusty. This will continue through mid to late
afternoon with gusts around 30 knots possible. Some MVFR Vis
restrictions still possible at KFWA for a couple hours with radar
showing some light showers post frontal. Restrictions at KSBN from
lake effect rain showers as a few have already brought MVFR and
IFR at times. Improving conditions late afternoon and this
evening with optimistic trend toward VFR with rising CIGS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...Gale Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MCD/Lashley
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...Lashley


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