Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 141756
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
156 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1119 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT PROVIDING
SOME PLEASANT FALL LIKE WEATHER. THEN TOMORROW A TROUGH WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S IN SOUTHERN
MICHIGAN TO AROUND 70 NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE
MIDDLE 40S ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE LOWER 70S
ALONG THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 433 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

QUIET WEATHER TO PREVAIL IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGE CONTINUING TO BE PESKY LOW CLOUD EVOLUTION THIS MORNING.

IN THE VERY NEAR TERM...HAVE ADDED A PATCHY FOG MENTION TO THE
FORECAST EARLY THIS MORNING AS FAVORABLE HYDROLAPSE PROFILES AND
RELATIVELY HIGH CROSSOVER TEMPS HAVE ALLOWED FOR SOME FOG FORMATION.
DEPTH SHOULD BE LIMITED AND ANY PATCHY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY
AFTER 13Z. SATELLITE/SFC OBSERVATIONS HAVE BEEN INDICATING EXPANDING
AREA OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING WHICH COINCIDES WITH AXIS OF SLIGHTLY
GREATER 850 HPA DEW POINTS. VEERING LOW LEVEL FLOW THIS MORNING
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL WINDS TO PROMOTE WEAK DRY AIR
ADVECTION AND AN EAST/NORTHEAST MIGRATION OF THIS WEAK LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AXIS. THUS...HAVE INDICATED MOSTLY CLOUDY/PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS ACROSS FAR NORTH/NORTHEAST EARLY THIS MORNING
TRANSITIONING TO PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME SLIGHT MODIFICATION OF LOW LEVEL AIR MASS TODAY
SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY...GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...AND POSSIBLY
APPROACHING THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE FAR EAST/SOUTHEAST.

CORE OF LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT BUT
PERSISTENT WEAK GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
THAT WILL PROMOTE DECENT RADIATIONAL-COOLING INDUCED TEMPERATURE
DROPS THIS EVENING. AN INCREASE IN HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS IS EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING IN BROAD MID LEVEL WAA ZONE IN
ADVANCE OF NEXT PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN TIER OF
CONUS. CURRENT THINKING IS MINS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S WILL BE
POSSIBLE BEFORE MORE SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER MOVES IN ACROSS THE
WEST LATE TONIGHT AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO PREVIOUS
MIN T FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 433 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

A SHORT WAVE TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AND SHOULD BE
ABLE TO SPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA GIVEN FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
JET DYNAMICS OF THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION. HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE
WILL BE LACKING AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE MARGINAL...SO
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT.  KEPT THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY NIGHT. KEPT
THE REST OF THE PERIOD DRY WITH TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE NORMAL BY
SATURDAY. RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY LATE IN THE PERIOD OF THE GFS IS
MARGINAL...AND OF THE ECMWF IS POOR CONCERNING THE EVOLUTION OF THE
UPPER AIR PATTERN...SO WAS HESITANT TO INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF RAIN
EVEN IN THE LIGHT OF ALL/BLEND RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 139 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

DIURNAL CU RAPIDLY DEVELOPED BUT SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATE AFTERNOON.
FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST WITH A SERIES OF SYSTEMS WHICH WILL
CONVERGE ON THE GREAT LAKES. BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO
OCCUR AT KSBN NEAR OR JUST OUTSIDE THE VALID TAF PERIOD WITH KFWA
LIKELY WAITING TILL AFTER 18Z. AS A RESULT HAVE ONLY BROUGHT IN
LOWER (STILL VFR) CIGS LATER IN THE MORNING AS MID LEVEL MSTR
ARRIVES.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...FISHER


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