Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 230725

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
325 AM EDT Fri Sep 23 2016

Issued at 325 AM EDT Fri Sep 23 2016

Mainly dry conditions are expected to persist today through this
weekend as an upper level ridge builds in. Temperatures will
remain above normal, but trend a little cooler this weekend behind
a weak front. A cold front will bring chances for showers back
into the forecast later Sunday into Monday, with cooler and mainly
dry weather anticipated for the middle of next week.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday Morning)
Issued at 325 AM EDT Fri Sep 23 2016

Round of height falls through the Northeast US will force a
weakening front south into areas north of Route 6 this morning,
toward the US 30 corridor by later this afternoon, and then
washing out south of the local area by later this evening. The
passage of this feature will be marked by a veering wind to the
north-northeast, cooler temps into mainly northern portions of the
forecast area, and increasing clouds. Little mid-upper support
amid subtle height rises on leading edge of a northeast building
Mid-Upper MS upper ridge should preclude much of a shower risk
along this increasingly shallow front. With that said cannot
completely rule out a few sprinkles/light showers into areas
mainly north of US 30 today given decent moisture within
associated low-mid level theta-e ridge folding through.

Mainly dry/quiet weather is expected to persist tonight through
Sunday morning as amplified upper ridge axis becomes better
established into the western/lower Great Lakes. Could see stratus
develop tonight and linger into Saturday morning as moisture
possibly gets caught in strengthening low level inversion.
Improvement to mostly/partly sunny skies is then expected into
Saturday afternoon as drier air tied to low level anticyclone
dropping southeast through eastern Ontario/eastern Great Lakes
filters in.


.LONG TERM...(Sunday afternoon through Thursday)
Issued at 325 AM EDT Fri Sep 23 2016

Chance for showers Sunday Night/Monday followed by cooler/seasonable

Deep upper low now over UT/NV will eventually team up with Northeast
Pacific energy into the North-Central US Sunday and Ontario/Great
Lakes by early next week. Models continue to suggest the best
opportunity for showers with eastward progressing frontal boundary
to work through Sunday night into Monday. Medium range guidance
diverges in handling of this system into the middle of next week
(00z GFS more showery/unsettled with upper low lingering over the
Great Lakes, while the ECMWF is progressive/open with upper trough
exiting and high pressure building in). Given the
differences/uncertainties made no changes from the 00z model


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 1258 AM EDT Fri Sep 23 2016

Vfr this period as weak surface ridging persists along the OH river.
Weak backdoor cold front will wash out across nrn IN this morning
but may provide a pathway for some lower bound stratocu by this
afternoon assuming sufficient moistening although near term highres
guidance signals are quite mixed and left out for now.




SHORT TERM...Steinwedel
LONG TERM...Steinwedel

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