Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 160429

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1129 PM EST Wed Feb 15 2017

Issued at 635 PM EST Wed Feb 15 2017

Northwest flow as a result of a low pressure system on the East
Coast will continue overnight tonight, but winds will change to
more southerly Thursday as high pressure moves into the region
with drier air. The more southerly winds will allow the region to
be on a warming trend into the weekend reaching the 60s on
Saturday. The lake effect snow showers or flurries will end by early
Thursday and dry air will continue into early next week.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 331 PM EST Wed Feb 15 2017

Deep layer subsidence and shallow inversion heights were really
limiting lake effect snow shower development. Aircraft soundings
showed the base of the subsidence inversion on the west edge of the
cloud layer was below 850 mb. Somewhat deeper cloud depths over
Lower Michigan were slightly more favorable for lake effect snow.
Inversion heights should start falling this evening allowing an even
less favorable environment for snow. Have removed light snow
accumulations given essentially flurries accompanied by scattered
light snow showers. Thursday will begin the transition to a very
mild pattern for this time of year. The ridge axis will shift east
and allow temperatures to begin to warm from the southwest. Highs
Thursday should top 40 degrees over southwest areas including
Monticello and Logansport.


.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 331 PM EST Wed Feb 15 2017

The transition to a very mild pattern will be nearly complete
by Friday as much warmer air spreads into the area from the
southwest. Upper level ridging should become more pronounced over
the east CONUS early next week as an unorganized pattern persists
upstream. Some energy may be able to migrate east during the
middle of the week in the form of short wave trofs; however, resisted
the apparent futility of the model blend to try to place likely
shower chances in any given 12 hour period beyond 120 hours in the
future given this pattern. So limited rain chances to 54 percent
Monday night through Wednesday. Gut feeling is these rain chances
are still too high and will need to be reduced by subsequent
shift/s. Otherwise, unseasonably mild weather will continue
through the middle of next week. Otherwise, temperatures will be
15 to 25 degrees above normal and may challenge a record or two
early next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1127 PM EST Wed Feb 15 2017

WNW flow lake effect clouds in 3.5-6 kft range will persist
through at least early Thursday afternoon before sfc ridging
builds in. Dry/light winds/VFR otherwise through the TAF cycle.


LM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Thursday for LMZ043-046.



SHORT TERM...Skipper
LONG TERM...Skipper

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