Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 201729

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
129 PM EDT Thu Oct 20 2016

Issued at 120 PM EDT Thu Oct 20 2016

Rain will continue for much of the area through this evening as a
low pressure system lingers overhead. Otherwise, expect a chance
of rain showers overnight, with lows dropping into the 40`s. There
is a chance for rain showers Friday, especially near lake
Michigan. Highs will be in the 50`s.


Issued at 906 AM EDT Thu Oct 20 2016

Morning grids being updated to reflect a further NW trend in

Deformation zone beginning to take shape with brunt of rainfall
currently NW of a Portland IN to Ottawa OH line. Furthest NW
extent looks to take aim on South Bend through the remainder of
the morning. Locations SE of Portland to Ottawa will still see
some showers/drizzle with an increase in coverage towards/after
noon as next wave moves in from the SW. For the time being,
thunder has been residing well southwest of the area and appears
to be diminishing somewhat. Will continue to leave out of zones
and monitor trends.

Remainder of the forecast generally on track.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 440 AM EDT Thu Oct 20 2016

The front had moved south to near the Ohio River early this
morning. Nearly all of the showers and storms were north of the
front across Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio where the storms had
become elevated. A narrow band of moderate to heavy rain was
supported by upper level jet dynamics and had developed across
northern Indiana into far southern Lower Michigan. Several factors
favorable to supporting moderate to occasionally heavy rain will
persist today over the southeast half of the area; especially
south and east of Warsaw. There is still some chance for thunder
this morning over this area; have kept thunder out for now but may
add thunder by daybreak. A wave on the front will travel northeast
and help the rain continue over the area. Plenty of upper level
jet support and even some jet coupling will be favorable for rain
support. The GFS has trended north and now supports the ECMWF
which has favored the precipitation axis between Ft Wayne and Lima
for several past days. Much cooler air will spread into the area
tonight. Some lake enhanced showers area possible over far
northwest areas near the lake.


.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 440 AM EDT Thu Oct 20 2016

Very chilly air will be spreading across the area behind the
wave and upper level system early Friday. Some lake enhanced
showers are possible Friday near Lake Michigan; otherwise,
conditions will be cool and dry. One cold night is expected Friday
night will lows dropping into the 30s. Frost may needed to be
added to a portion of the area. Otherwise, conditions should be
dry through Tuesday with moderating temperatures.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 120 PM EDT Thu Oct 20 2016

With a cold front dropping through the area expect winds to
gradually become more north-northwest overnight. Rain currently
impacting KFWA will gradually shift out of the region later this
evening. KSBN will continue to see shower activity on and off
through Friday, but only felt confident including VCSH this
evening. Models suggest the development of a lake effect rain
band developing overnight and moving into KSBN Friday
morning/afternoon, but again-left it out of TAF for now.
Otherwise, lower ceilings continue to fluctuate between
800ft/1500ft at KFWA, and I expect this to continue along with
BR/-RA through the first part of the TAF period. As rain showers
move southeastward, expect conditions to improve gradually.


LM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Saturday for LMZ043-046.



SHORT TERM...Skipper
LONG TERM...Skipper

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