Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 011647
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1247 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1247 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

MAINLY DRY AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S NORTH TO THE 60S SOUTHEAST OF ROUTE
24. ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS AND SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR A THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 419 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

SERIES OF WAVES...ASSOCIATED WITH CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER
SW NE/NW KS WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE MAIN FEATURE
SLOWLY OPENING AND SHEARING OUT AS IT CROSSES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
THE FIRST WAVE WAS MOVING THROUGH ILLINOIS TOWARDS THE FORECAST
AREA. A WARM FRONT WAS NOTED AT 6Z FROM SOUTH OF DANVILLE IL TO
NORTH OF MARION AND LIMA OHIO WITH UPR 50 DEWPOINTS SOUTH OF THE
FRONT.

A LULL IN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE MAIN UPPER LOW ENTERS
EASTERN ILLINOIS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL ON TAP...BUT COVERAGE MAY BE MORE SCATTERED
IN NATURE UNTIL THE SFC REFLECTION TAKES SHAPE DURING THE EVENING
HOURS. HAVE TONED DOWN POPS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BUT CONTINUE WITH
RAMP UP TO LIKELY POPS IN SE AREAS TOWARDS 00Z. ALL GUIDANCE HAS
INCREASED POPS SIGNIFICANTLY AS WELL AS EXPANDED FURTHER
WEST...WARRANTING LIKELY POPS THIS EVENING FOR MOST AREAS. SOME
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CATEGORICAL POPS...BUT NOT READY TO JUMP IN QUITE
YET. WITH REGARDS TO SEVERE THREAT...SWODY1 PUSHED MARGINAL RISK
SOUTH SOMEWHAT TO JUST AT THE EDGE OF OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
CONCERNS LINGER AS SOME OF THE MODELS SUGGEST MOST UNSTABLE CAPE
VALUES OVER 500 J/KG WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR UPWARDS OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS.
KEY FACTORS IN DETERMINING RISK WILL BE 1)POCKETS OF HEATING LATE AM
INTO MID AFTERNOON IN BETWEEN WAVES 2)LOCATION OF WARM FRONT
3)AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN PLACE OR QUICKLY ADVECTING IN. WILL GO WITH
MENTION OF STG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS/SMALL HAIL IN HWO FOR NOW AND
LET DAY SHIFT HANDLED ANY THREAT. TEMPERATURES WILL VARY GREATLY
FROM NW TO SE WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S SOUTHEAST AND STRUGGLING
THROUGH THE 50S IN THE NW.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN WILL TAKE SHAPE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD
WITH REGION BEING ON THE COLD AND ACTIVE SIDE OF IT THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN MONDAY WITH CHC OF
SHOWERS ARRIVING ONCE AGAIN. STRONGER WAVE AND FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
ARRIVE TUES NGT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS (THUNDER?)
WITH THE SURFACE LOW EVENTUALLY CUTTING OFF TO THE EAST WITH
LINGERING SHOWER CHANCES IN THE FAR EAST INTO FRIDAY.

FINALLY BY THE WEEKEND...THE REGION WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN TEMPS
ABOVE NORMAL AS UPPER LOW SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND RIDGING TAKES
PLACE. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH MODERATION BACK TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL AFTER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

IFR STRATUS CONTINUES TO PLAGUE KSBN/KFWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
NORTH OF A SFC FRONT DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL IN/OH. DIURNAL
MIXING...ESPECIALLY AT KFWA NEAR SFC FRONT...SHOULD AFFORD SOME
IMPROVEMENT INTO MVFR FOR A TIME LATER THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE
NEXT BATCH OF RAIN AND IFR-LIFR CONDITIONS MOVE IN THIS EVENING
INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT AS MID MS VALLEY SHORTWAVE ENERGY
STRENGTHENS FRONTAL CONVERGENCE. COULD SEE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
THIS EVENING...BUT WEAK INSTABILITY AT BEST PRECLUDES ADDING
TSRA/VCTS IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. DRIER MID LVL AIR WILL
OVERSPREAD LATER TONIGHT-MONDAY MORNING WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT IN
LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE TOWARD 15-18Z.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


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