Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 222355

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
755 PM EDT MON AUG 22 2016

Issued at 744 PM EDT Mon Aug 22 2016

One last cool night before warmer and more humid air moves into
the region. Lows tonight will drop into the 50s. There is a good
chance for storms Wednesday afternoon through Thursday as a
frontal boundary moves across the area. Highs will be in the
upper 70s to mid 80s for the next several days.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 346 PM EDT Mon Aug 22 2016

High pressure was drifting south across the Ohio River region this
afternoon, as return flow from the southwest was was just
beginning over northern Indiana. Some light fog is possible
tonight, but with warmer low level temperatures and better low
level mixing, do not expect the fog to be operationally
significant early Tuesday. Otherwise, conditions will be warmer
Tuesday with highs rising back to near normal for this time of


.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 346 PM EDT Mon Aug 22 2016

The main challenges this period concerns the chances for storms
midweek with an upper level trof ejecting northeast out of the
southwest CONUS. Moisture flux will increase rapidly Wednesday as
a warm front lifts northeast. Precipitable water values will
increase to around 2.0 inches per GFS BUFKIT. It appears that
chances for severe storms are more marginal Wednesday through
Thursday; however, locally heavy rainfall is possible, especially
with any training storms given favorable factors for heavy rain.
After Thursday, favor a drier GFS in lieu of the ECMWF which
ejects a significant short wave trof toward the area early next
week. Temperatures should rise above normal early next week as an
upper level ridge builds into the area.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 742 PM EDT Mon Aug 22 2016

VFR conditions to prevail through the forecast period as surface
ridge moves from overhead to the upper Ohio Valley by Wednesday
evening. Again spotty/shallow ground fog possible but chances/
duration/areal extent precludes mention. Otherwise little more
than diurnal cu and uptick in return southerly flow for Wednesday.


.IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


SHORT TERM...Skipper
LONG TERM...Skipper

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