Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 172347

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
647 PM EST Tue Jan 17 2017

Issued at 305 PM EST Tue Jan 17 2017

Cloudy skies and perhaps a few light showers or drizzle will be
possible tonight along with patchy fog. Low temperatures will
only drop into the lower and middle 30s. Wednesday and Thursday
will be dry and mild as high pressure builds across the region. Highs
will reach the mid to upper 40s each day and lows will be in the
30s. Warm conditions are expected this weekend with high
temperatures in the 50s and lows in the 40s. There is a chance for
showers on Friday and Sunday.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 304 PM EST Tue Jan 17 2017

A low pressure area was over Lower Michigan and was moving
northeast. Cold air advection was south of the low over the
forecast area. Light showers and patchy drizzle and areas of fog
may persist well into the night as the weak flow continues with
sufficient moisture upstream. Temperatures should stay above
freezing, so travel impacts should be limited to the patchy fog.


.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 304 PM EST Tue Jan 17 2017

Two upper level systems will lift northeast over the area during
this period. The initial system should bring a round of light rain
Thursday night into Friday. A second, but much stronger system will
follow a similar path of the first. More rain is likely with this
second system. Other than lows dipping a little below freezing
Thursday night, temperatures should stay above freezing through next
Tuesday and will even approach record highs on Saturday and Sunday.
Have raised temperatures across the board during this entire period
based the the latest model blends and trends. Rises on rivers are
likely with flooding possible especially early next week given
saturated and partly frozen ground conditions with excess runoff.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 634 PM EST Tue Jan 17 2017

IFR visibilities/LIFR cigs conditions will struggle to leave the
area through much of the period. A frontal boundary will drop into
the area tonight and reinforce the low clouds/fog as well as
bringing a somewhat better chance for light showers or more
widespread drizzle, with greatest chance for impacts at KSBN.

In the wake of the system, little overall change expected with
moisture remaining trapped despite approaching high pressure.
Models hinting at some clearing possible towards the end of the
period but not overly optimistic at this time so have simply
brought up cigs to IFR with vsbys improving more dramatically.




SHORT TERM...Skipper
LONG TERM...Skipper

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