Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 101959
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
359 PM EDT THU APR 10 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1038 AM EDT THU APR 10 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE USHERING IN WARMER
AIR AND SOME MOISTURE. THIS WILL CREATE A CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN
TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH SOME ISOLATED THUNDER. BY TOMORROW
MORNING THE FRONT AND RAIN WILL HAVE MOVED TO THE EAST AND SOUTH.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN TO THE MIDDLE 70S ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE LOWER 50S
NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT THU APR 10 2014

SHOWERS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA WITH NO
LIGHTNING DETECTED. LITTLE PRECIPITATION IS REACHING THE GROUND...
WHICH IS NOT SURPRISING CONSIDERING DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AROUND
20 DEGREES AT MANY OBSERVING SITES. PRECIPITATION IS STILL EXPECTED TO
CLEAR THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE KEPT ISOLATED THUNDER THROUGH
EARLY TONIGHT OVER SOUTHEAST ZONES...BUT THIS MAY BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT THU APR 10 2014

MAIN CONCERN IS THIS WEEKEND...WHEN THE ECMWF/GFS/FIM AGREE ON A
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THE SLOW MOTION COMBINED WITH VERY FAVORABLE FLOW
TRAJECTORIES FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD HELP ENSURE THIS IS A
VERY WET SYSTEM...WITH WPC FORECASTING A NEARLY 3 INCH SWATH OF
PRECIPITATION FROM ILLINOIS INTO LOWER MICHIGAN OVER THE NEXT 5
DAYS. THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA WILL THEREFORE LIKELY GET GREATER
AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION. THUNDER WILL ALSO BE LIKELY DURING THIS
TIME WITH GREATER INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX MONDAY NIGHT AS COLDER
AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE FRONT BUT NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
AFTER THIS...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN SHARPLY COOLER.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT THU APR 10 2014

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN REMAINS THE STRONG WSW WINDS.  THEY WILL
CONTINUE TO GUST AS HIGH AS 35 KNOTS FOR A FEW HOURS PAST 18Z THU.
HOWEVER MIXING WILL BE REDUCED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO THE REGION.  THE GUSTINESS IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON.  WITH ONLY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED AFTER NIGHTFALL.

THE FRONT WILL BATTLE DRY LOW LEVELS AND WILL THEREFORE PRODUCE
VERY LITTLE RAIN AND CEILINGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR.
THE FRONT STALLS OVER CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT...SO FWA MAY STAND A
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS.  EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE FOR FWA...BUT THE COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH AND
THIS WAS NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAF AT THIS POINT.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...JK


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