Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KIWX 091526
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1126 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1049 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2014

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP PLEASANT WEATHER OVER THE
REGION INTO FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2014

LTL OF NOTE THIS PD AS SFC ANTICYCLONE INTENSIFIES ACRS THE LAKES IN
WAKE OF STG SW WRAPPING UP ACRS ERN CANADA. IN FACT FAIRLY STEEP
NWRLY LL FLW WILL DRIVE LAKE SHADOW WELL INLAND TDA W/STG DRYING
NOTED BLW DECENT SUBSIDENT THERMAL INVERSION. HWVR MORNING
INSOLATION WILL LIKELY DRIVE FAIRLY VIGOROUS OPEN CELL CU GROWTH BFR
MIXING OUT THROUGH AFTN. RESIDUAL BUT LIMITED THETA-E RIDGE ACRS
FAR SERN COUNTIES AND ACRS NW OH COULD SEE A SHRA EARLY THIS AFTN
AHD OF WK TERTIARY DISTURBANCE PROPAGATING THROUGH BASE OF H5 UPR
LOW CNTRD OVR SERN ONTARIO. HWVR WILL HOLD W/PRIOR CAPPED GRIDDED
14 POPS AS GUIDANCE SIGNALS ARE WEAK AND MORE SUPPORTIVE SEWD OF
THE CWA.

OTRWS TEMPS XPCD TO BE MUCH BLO NORMAL THIS PD.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2014

FAIR/COMFORTABLE WX TO PERSIST INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HEIGHT
RISES/SUBSIDENCE IN FLATTENED WNW FLOW ALLOWS HIGH PRESSURE TO
REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION. THETA-E ADVECTION WITHIN RETURN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS/THUNDER BACK INTO THE FORECAST LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY AS UPSTREAM CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED SHORTWAVE SLOWS EASTWARD
ALONG ADVANCING INSTABILITY GRADIENT. ONLY LOW 20-30 TYPE POPS
WARRANTED GIVEN LITTLE FLOW/SUPPORT ALOFT...WITH CONVECTIVE REMNANTS
FIGHTING DRY AIRMASS INITIALLY. BEST LOW CONFIDENCE BET FOR
MEASURABLE RAIN TO REACH THIS FAR EAST WILL BE FOR A STRONGER
CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED SHORTWAVE TO EMERGE BRINGING A THINNING BAND OF
RAIN TO MAINLY WESTERN AREAS BY FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY MORNING...WITH
MUCH BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDER/HEAVIER RAIN RESIDING WSW OF THE IWX
CWA.

HIGH LATITUDE RIDGING INTO WESTERN NORTH AMERICA WILL SUPPORT
DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING INTO THE MIDWEST/LAKES NEXT WEEK...WITH MODEL
GUIDANCE VERY CONSISTENT IN PIVOTING A POLAR VORTEX PIECE EAST
THROUGH ONTARIO-QUEBEC. LEAD SHORTWAVE/INITIAL PUSH OF HEIGHT FALLS
IN STRENGTHENING WNW FLOW WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN/STORMS
(SVR WX?) INVOF A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY.
MONDAY APPEARS TO BE A TRANSITIONAL/MAINLY DRY DAY IN BETWEEN FRONTS
BEFORE COOLER/DRIER AIR LIKELY SETTLES IN BEHIND A SECONDARY FRONT
BY TUESDAY. AS FOR TEMPS...STAYED CLOSE TO 00Z CONSENSUS BLEND
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO MODERATE CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMS BY THIS WEEKEND (DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER).

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2014

VFR CONDS XPCD THROUGH THE PD AS SFC ANTICYCLONE BLDS IN ACRS THE
GREAT LAKES THIS PD.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...T


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.NORTHERNIN.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.