Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 140001
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
801 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO SUNDAY. CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP INTO THE
UPPER 30S IN MANY LOCATIONS WITH A FEW SPOTS DIPPING INTO THE
MIDDLE 30S. MID SEPTEMBER SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO REBOUND
ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

LAKE EFFECT CLOUD COVER HAS PERSISTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
NICE SINGLE BAND HAS BEEN DRIFTING WEST ACROSS LK MI MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON BUT INLAND EXTENT HAS BEEN VERY LIMITED AND WHAT HAS
MADE IT IN DOING LITTLE MORE THAN SOME SPRINKLES AS DRIER AIR
CONTINUES TO MOVE IN. EXPECTED ALL ACTIVITY TO WIND DOWN QUICKLY
BY THIS EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR...IF NOT CLEAR SKIES PREVAILING.
WITH WINDS DIMINISHING AND COLDEST CORE OF AIR OVERHEAD TEMPS WILL
FALL TO NEAR RECORD LOWS IN SOME AREAS (SEE BELOW). IN GENERAL
MOST AREAS SHOULD DROP IN TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S (37 TO 39 DEGREE
RANGE). FAVORED DRAINAGE AREAS MAY SEE LOCALLY LOWER
TEMPS...ESPECIALLY BENTON HARBOR. MAV GUIDANCE DROPS BEH TO 31
DEGREES. WHILE NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION GIVEN A PAST
HISTORY OF RATHER EXTREME DIFFERENCES COMPARED TO OTHER AREAS NOT
READY TO GO THAT COLD. HAVE OPTED TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND RUN
WITH 34 THERE. WITH TEMPS IN THE 30S...THE QUESTION OF FROST COMES
INTO PLAY. FOR MOST LOCATIONS THE TIME FRAME FOR BEING IN THE
"DANGER" RANGE WILL BE SHORT AND GROUND TEMPS ARE STILL WARM
ENOUGH THAT IT SHOULD KEEP FROST FROM FORMING OR ONLY ON AN VERY
LIMITED BASIS. THE FEW AREAS SET TO GO INTO THE MID 30S HAVE A
MENTION OF PATCHY FROST WHERE SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
WILL EXIST. THERE WILL BE NO MENTION OF FOG FOR NOW...BUT SAME
CONDITIONS THAT WILL AID IN A COLD NIGHT WILL CAUSE A SLIGHTLY
INCREASED RISK FOR PATCHY GROUND FOG.

ON SUNDAY...AFTER A COLD START TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 60S
WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY.

SBN ON 9/13  33 IN 1964
       9/14  36 IN 1899
FWA ON 9/13  38 IN 1964
       9/14  31 IN 1902


&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

NEXT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE NOW DROPPING THROUGH ALBERTA WILL AMPLIFY
(YET REMAIN PROGRESSIVE) SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE LOWER LAKES BY MONDAY
AFTN-EARLY EVE WITHIN BROAD EASTERN CONUS TROUGH. CHANCES FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN (GENERALLY < 0.25") LOOKING GOOD...ESPECIALLY
NORTHERN TWO THIRDS...AS ASSOCIATED TIGHTENING OF LOW/MID LEVEL
FRONT AIDS IN STRENGTHENING OF UPPER JET STREAK INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...WITH REDUCED STABILITY/LIFT/MOISTENING IN BETWEEN A GOOD
SIGNAL FOR PCPN WITH WAVE. LIMITING FACTOR FOR GREATER
COVERAGE/HIGHER POPS REMAINS LACKING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN INTO
THE AREA.

STABLE/COOL NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING AT
THE SURFACE WILL SUPPORT A STRETCH OF MAINLY QUIET/FAIR WX AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS TUESDAY AND BEYOND. MODELS SUGGESTING ONLY REAL NON
ZERO CHANCE (NOT ENOUGH TO ADD A MENTIONABLE POP) FOR A FEW
SHOWERS/CLOUDS TO BE LATER WED-THU INTO NERN ZONES AS WEAK WAVE
PROPAGATING THROUGH THE NORTHERN/EASTERN LAKES TRIES TO FORCE A
WEAKENING/MOISTURE STARVED BACK DOOR FRONT INTO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 800 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

PRIMARILY VFR MET CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
CENTROID OF SURFACE RIDGE REMAINING STEADY THROUGH NORTHERN
ILLINOIS EASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. ONLY BRIEF
EARLY MORNING POTENTIAL FOR VSBY REDUCTIONS IN BR. DIFFERENTIATED
KFWA FROM KSBN WHERE FORMER HAS ABOUT 4F HIGHER XOVER TEMP AND
IN LINE WITH PROCLIVITY...THOUGH HOLDING SHORT OF IFR/2SM
MENTION AT KFWA...THOUGH CONCEDE BRIEF ENCOUNTER WITHIN THE REALM
OF POSSIBLE OUTCOMES.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR INZ003.

MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MURPHY


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