Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 250810
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
410 AM EDT MON APR 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 215 AM EDT MON APR 25 2016

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WILL PROVIDE DRY
CONDITIONS AND MILD TEMPERATURES. EARLY MORNING LOWS WILL BE INTO
THE 40S OVER NORTHWEST OHIO TO MAINLY 50S ELSEWHERE. WARM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
AROUND 80. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA TONIGHT WITH A
GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 55 TO 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT MON APR 25 2016

A SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK EAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY. DEEP
MIXING WITH A TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL CAUSE WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
RAISED WIND SPEEDS A LITTLE IN LINE WITH THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE.
FAVORED THE GFS TREND THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS TOWARD A SLOWER AND MORE
NORTHWEST LOW TRACK SOLUTION. NOT MUCH FORCING FOR STORMS TODAY...
BUT INCREASING MOISTURE WITH DAYTIME HEATING MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT SOME SHOWERS OVER LOWER MICHIGAN INTO FAR NORTHERN INDIANA.

THERE IS A MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TONIGHT AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGES NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER INDICATED SOME STORMS MAY BE MARGINALLY
SEVERE OVERNIGHT. AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL BE IN PLACE
OVERNIGHT AS A FRONT APPROACHES. SURFACE BASED NAM CAPES SHOULD
RISE ABOVE 500 J/KG AS FAVORABLE 0-3KM SHEAR RISES TO 40 M/S. SO
BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS APPEARS TO BE FROM LATE EVENING UNTIL ABOUT
4 AM EDT WITH SOME STORMS STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE DURING THIS
PERIOD.


&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT MON APR 25 2016

SEVERAL SHORT WAVES EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION DURING THIS LONG
TERM PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS LOW GIVEN MODEL PERFORMANCE AND
WAVERING WITH THIS FIRST SHORT WAVE TO START THE WEEK. BEST CHANCES
FOR PCPN LOOKS TO BE WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER STRONG SHORT WAVE AND
SFC LOW MOVING SOUTH OF THE AREA. STILL MODEL DISCREPANCIES WITH
STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THIS FEATURE. DID ALLOW LIKELY POPS TO
CONTINUE BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN CATEGORICAL YET. BASICALLY
FOLLOWED SUPERBLEND IN DAYS 4-7 WITH SLIGHT LOWERING OF POPS FROM
LIKELY TO CHANCE GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WITH CONVECTION AND STACKED
SYSTEM IN PLAINS LATE WEEK LIKELY COMING OUT SLOWER THAN MODEL
FORECAST. TEMPS WILL TREND COOLER WED AND THU WITH EASTERLY FLOW AND
PCPN CHANCES. TEMPS WILL TREND BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LATE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF NEXT WAVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 202 AM EDT MON APR 25 2016

DEEP MIXING TODAY WITH A TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
CAUSE WINDY CONDITIONS. RAISED WIND SPEEDS A LITTLE IN LINE WITH
THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. INTRODUCED A CHANCE FOR VCNTY STORMS AT
SBN STARTING AT 03Z AS THE FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JT/SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...LASHLEY
AVIATION...SKIPPER


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